Dataset Information

Predicting pathologic complete response in locally advanced rectal cancer patients after neoadjuvant therapy: a machine learning model using XGBoost.

ABSTRACT:

Purpose

Watch and wait strategy is a safe and effective alternative to surgery in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) who have achieved pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant therapy (NAT); present restaging methods do not meet clinical needs. This study aimed to construct a machine learning (ML) model to predict pCR preoperatively.

Methods

LARC patients who received NAT were included to generate an extreme gradient boosting-based ML model to predict pCR. The group was divided into a training set and a tuning set at a 7:3 ratio. The SHapley Additive exPlanations value was used to quantify feature importance. The ML model was compared with a nomogram model developed using independent risk factors identified by conventional multivariate logistic regression analysis.

Results

Compared with the nomogram model, our ML model improved the area under the receiver operating characteristics from 0.72 to 0.95, sensitivity from 43 to 82.2%, and specificity from 87.1 to 91.6% in the training set, the same trend applied to the tuning set. Neoadjuvant radiotherapy, preoperative carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA125), CA199, carcinoembryonic antigen level, and depth of tumor invasion were significant in predicting pCR in both models.

Conclusion

Our ML model is a potential alternative to the existing assessment tools to conduct triage treatment for patients and provides reference for clinicians in tailoring individual treatment: the watch and wait strategy is used to avoid surgical trauma in pCR patients, and non-pCR patients receive surgical treatment to avoid missing the optimal operation time window.

SUBMITTER: Chen X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9262764 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background: MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small, non-coding, RNA molecules which regulate numerous cellular processes. Specific miRNA may be abnormally down-regulated or up-regulated in colorectal cancer and have been found associated with prognosis or response to treatments. However, no study has ever addressed their predictive role in rectal cancer. Therefore, we used microarray technology and RT-PCR to profile miRNA expression patterns in patients (pts) with rectal cancer, with the aim to identify a specific M-bM-^@M-^\signatureM-bM-^@M-^] associated with pathological complete response after neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy. Methods: 38 pts with locally advanced rectal cancer (cT3-4/N+) were treated with capecitabine-oxaliplatin and pelvic conformal radiotherapy (45 cGy) followed by surgery (after 6-8 weeks). Pathologic response was scored according to the tumor regression grade (TRG) scale. MiRNA expression profile was analysed by microarray on fresh frozen biopsies obtained before treatment start and confirmed by RT-PCR. The correlation between miRNA expression profile and the TRG coded as TRG1 (pathologic Complete Response-pCR) versus TRG >1 (no pCR) was assessed by statistical analysis methods specifically designed for this study. Findings: 14 miRNAs were selected by arrays analysis as differentially expressed in TRG1 pts and 13 were confirmed by RT-PCR. In particular, 11 miRNAs (miR-1183, miR-483-5p, miR-622, miR-125a-3p, miR-1224-5p, miR-188-5p, miR-1471, miR-671-5p, miR-1909*, miR-630 and miR-765) were significantly up-regulated in TRG1 pts, while 2 miRNAs were under -expressed (miR-1274b and miR-720). miR-622 and miR-630 showed 100% sensitivity and specificity in selecting TRG1 cases and were significantly correlated with EGFR (M-OM-^G2=11M-bM-^@M-"793; p= 0M-bM-^@M-"001) and TS expression (M-OM-^G2=10M-bM-^@M-"589; p= 0M-bM-^@M-"001). Interpretation: A set of 13 miRNAs is strongly associated with pathologic complete response and may represent a specific marker of response to chemo-radiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer. Experiments were performed on purified RNA from preoperatory biopsies of 38 patients with histological diagnosis of rectal adenocarcinoma invading through the intestinal wall and/or with pelvic lymph node involvement as evaluated by endorectal ultrasonography (uT3-T4 and/or uN+). Patients were treated with neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy (capecitabine + oxaliplatin in combination with 45 Gy of pelvic conformal radiotherapy). Patients have been divided in the following two groups: group A those who had obtained a pathologic complete response M-bM-^@M-^S TRG 1, including the patient without detectable disease who refused surgery, group B any pathologic response other than complete.

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