Dataset Information

The ABC-Stroke Score Refines Stroke Risk Stratification in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation at the Emergency Department

ABSTRACT:

Aims

To evaluate the performance of the ABC (Age, Biomarkers, Clinical history) and CHA2DS2-VASc stroke scores under real-world conditions in an emergency setting.

Methods and Results

The performance of the biomarker-based ABC-stroke score and the clinical variable-based CHA2DS2-VASc score for stroke risk assessment were prospectively evaluated in a consecutive series of 2,108 patients with acute symptomatic atrial fibrillation at a tertiary care emergency department. Performance was assessed according to methods for the development and validation of clinical prediction models by Steyerberg et al. and the Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis. During a cumulative observation period of 3,686 person-years, the stroke incidence rate was 1.66 per 100 person-years. Overall, the ABC-stroke and CHA2DS2-VASc scores revealed respective c-indices of 0.64 and 0.55 for stroke prediction. Risk-class hazard ratios comparing moderate to low and high to low were 3.51 and 2.56 for the ABC-stroke score and 1.10 and 1.62 for the CHA2DS2-VASc score. The ABC-stroke score also provided improved risk stratification in patients with moderate stroke risk according to the CHA2DS2-VASc score, who lack clear recommendations regarding anticoagulation therapy (HR: 4.35, P = 0.001). Decision curve analysis indicated a superior net clinical benefit of using the ABC-stroke score.

Conclusion

In a large, real-world cohort of patients with acute atrial fibrillation in the emergency department, the ABC-stroke score was superior to the guideline-recommended CHA2DS2-VASc score at predicting stroke risk and refined risk stratification of patients labeled moderate risk by the CHA2DS2-VASc score, potentially easing treatment decision-making.

SUBMITTER: Niederdockl J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9271836 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background The CHA2DS2-VASc (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes, previous stroke or TIA [transient ischemic attack], vascular disease, age 65 to 74 years, sex category female; 2 indicates 2 points, otherwise 1 point) scoring system is recommended to guide decisions on oral anticoagulation therapy for stroke prevention in patients with nonsurgery atrial fibrillation. A score ≥1 in men and ≥2 in women, corresponding to an annual stroke risk exceeding 1%, warrants long-term oral anticoagulation provided the bleeding risk is acceptable. However, in patients with new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation, the optimal risk stratification method is unknown. The aim of this study was therefore to evaluate the CHA2DS2-VASc scoring system for estimating the 1-year ischemic stroke risk in patients with new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass grafting. Methods and Results All patients with new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation and without oral anticoagulation after first-time isolated coronary artery bypass grafting performed in Sweden during 2007 to 2017 were eligible for this registry-based observational cohort study. The 1-year ischemic stroke rate at each step of the CHA2DS2-VASc score was estimated using a Kaplan-Meier estimator. Of the 6368 patients included (mean age, 69.9 years; 81% men), >97% were treated with antiplatelet drugs. There were 147 ischemic strokes during the first year of follow-up. The ischemic stroke rate at 1 year was 0.3%, 0.7%, and 1.5% in patients with CHA2DS2-VASc scores of 1, 2, and 3, respectively, and ≥2.3% in patients with a score ≥4. A sensitivity analysis, with the inclusion of patients on anticoagulants, was performed and supported the primary results. Conclusions Patients with new-onset atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass grafting and a CHA2DS2-VASc score <3 have such a low 1-year risk for ischemic stroke that oral anticoagulation therapy should probably be avoided.