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Dynamical links of convective storms associated with tropospheric biennial oscillation in the Indian monsoon regime

ABSTRACT: Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO) is characterized by a tendency for a relatively stronger monsoon to be followed by a relatively weaker one (positive) or vice-versa (negative). This study examines the distribution of different convective systems occurring during TBO phases over the Indian monsoon region. During negative TBO phase, convection is preferential over the Arabian Sea (AS), whereas during positive TBO phase, it is favoured over the land areas and Bay of Bengal (BoB). The isolated shallow convection (ISC) is dominated over the AS and Indian west coast during negative TBO years. A relatively stable environment (statically) capped with drier mid-troposphere results in abundant ISC over the AS. Broad stratiform rain (BSR) dominates over the central and east coast of India, BoB and Myanmar coast during positive TBO years and wide convective core (WCC) are present along the orographic regions, i.e., Myanmar coast and Western Ghats during negative TBO phase. The anomalous easterlies induced by the upper-ocean temperature gradient interact with the mean monsoon winds during positive TBO to provide pathways for developing BSR echoes. The deep-wide convection (DWC) are higher along the Himalayan foothills during positive TBO years. The moist low-level flow from the AS is trapped by dry mid-level flow from high latitudes, resulting in orographic lifting along the Himalayan foothills and form DWC.

SUBMITTER: Murali Krishna U

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9283390 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) exhibits significant variability, affecting the food and water security of the densely populated Indian subcontinent. The two dominant spatial modes of ISMR variability are associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the strength of the semi-permanent monsoon trough along with related variability in monsoon depressions, respectively. Although the robust teleconnection between ENSO and ISMR has been well established for several decades, the major drivers leading to the time-varying relationship between ENSO and ISMR patterns across different regions of the country are not well understood. Our analysis shows a consistent increase from a moderate to substantially strong teleconnection strength between ENSO and ISMR from 1901 to 1940. This strengthened relationship remained stable and strong between 1941 and 1980. However, in the recent period from 1981 to 2018 the teleconnection decreased consistently again to a moderate strength. We find that the ENSO-ISMR relationship exhibits distinct regional variability with time-varying relationship over the north, central, and south India. Specifically, the teleconnection displays an increasing relationship for north India, a decreasing relationship for central India and a consistent relationship for south India. Warm SST anomalies over the eastern Pacific Ocean correspond to an overall decrease in the ISMR, while warm SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean corresponds to a decrease in rainfall over the north and increase over the south of India. The central Indian region experienced the most substantial variation in the ENSO-ISMR relationship. This variation corresponds to the variability of the monsoon trough and depressions, strongly influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, which regulate the relative dominance of the two spatial modes of ISMR. By applying the PCA-Biplot technique, our study highlights the significant impacts of various climate drivers on the two dominant spatial modes of ISMR which account for the evolving nature of the ENSO-ISMR relationship.

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Dynamical links of convective storms associated with tropospheric biennial oscillation in the Indian monsoon regime

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