A Bayesian approach for estimating typhoid fever incidence from large-scale facility-based passive surveillance data.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Phillips MT
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9291985 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Decisions about typhoid fever prevention and control are based on estimates of typhoid incidence and their uncertainty. Lack of specific clinical diagnostic criteria, poorly sensitive diagnostic tests, and scarcity of accurate and complete datasets contribute to difficulties in calculating age-specific population-level typhoid incidence. Using data from the Strategic Typhoid Alliance across Africa and Asia program, we integrated demographic censuses, healthcare utilization surveys, facility-based surveillance, and serological surveillance from Malawi, Nepal, and Bangladesh to account for under-detection of cases. We developed a Bayesian approach that adjusts the count of reported blood-culture-positive cases for blood culture detection, blood culture collection, and healthcare seeking-and how these factors vary by age-while combining information from prior published studies. We validated the model using simulated data. The ratio of observed to adjusted incidence rates was 7.7 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 6.0-12.4) in Malawi, 14.4 (95% CrI: 9.3-24.9) in Nepal, and 7.0 (95% CrI: 5.6-9.2) in Bangladesh. The probability of blood culture collection led to the largest adjustment in Malawi, while the probability of seeking healthcare contributed the most in Nepal and Bangladesh; adjustment factors varied by age. Adjusted incidence rates were within or below the seroincidence rate limits of typhoid infection. Estimates of blood-culture-confirmed typhoid fever without these adjustments results in considerable underestimation of the true incidence of typhoid fever. Our approach allows each phase of the reporting process to be synthesized to estimate the adjusted incidence of typhoid fever while correctly characterizing uncertainty, which can inform decision-making for typhoid prevention and control.
| S-EPMC7613088 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAccurate measures of malaria incidence are essential to track progress and target high-risk populations. While health management information system (HMIS) data provide counts of malaria cases, quantifying the denominator for incidence using these data is challenging because catchment areas and care-seeking behaviours are not well defined. This study's aim was to estimate malaria incidence using HMIS data by adjusting the population denominator accounting for travel time to the health facility.MethodsOutpatient data from two public health facilities in Uganda (Kihihi and Nagongera) over a 3-year period (2011-2014) were used to model the relationship between travel time from patient village of residence (available for each individual) to the facility and the relative probability of attendance using Poisson generalized additive models. Outputs from the model were used to generate a weighted population denominator for each health facility and estimate malaria incidence. Among children aged 6 months to 11 years, monthly HMIS-derived incidence estimates, with and without population denominators weighted by probability of attendance, were compared with gold standard measures of malaria incidence measured in prospective cohorts.ResultsA total of 48,898 outpatient visits were recorded across the two sites over the study period. HMIS incidence correlated with cohort incidence over time at both study sites (correlation in Kihihi = 0.64, p < 0.001; correlation in Nagongera = 0.34, p = 0.045). HMIS incidence measures with denominators unweighted by probability of attendance underestimated cohort incidence aggregated over the 3 years in Kihihi (0.5 cases per person-year (PPY) vs 1.7 cases PPY) and Nagongera (0.3 cases PPY vs 3.0 cases PPY). HMIS incidence measures with denominators weighted by probability of attendance were closer to cohort incidence, but remained underestimates (1.1 cases PPY in Kihihi and 1.4 cases PPY in Nagongera).ConclusionsAlthough malaria incidence measured using HMIS underestimated incidence measured in cohorts, even when adjusting for probability of attendance, HMIS surveillance data are a promising and scalable source for tracking relative changes in malaria incidence over time, particularly when the population denominator can be estimated by incorporating information on village of residence.
| S-EPMC7709253 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEnvironmental surveillance (ES) for Salmonella Typhi potentially offers a low-cost tool to identify communities with a high burden of typhoid fever.MethodsWe developed standardized protocols for typhoid ES, including sampling site selection, validation, characterization; grab or trap sample collection, concentration; and quantitative PCR targeting Salmonella genes (ttr, staG, and tviB) and a marker of human fecal contamination (HF183). ES was implemented over 12 months in a historically high typhoid fever incidence setting (Vellore, India) and a lower incidence setting (Blantyre, Malawi) during 2021-2022.ResultsS. Typhi prevalence in ES samples was higher in Vellore compared with Blantyre; 39/520 (7.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.4%-12.4%) vs 11/533 (2.1%; 95% CI, 1.1%-4.0%) in grab and 79/517 (15.3%; 95% CI, 9.8%-23.0%) vs 23/594 (3.9%; 95% CI, 1.9%-7.9%) in trap samples. Detection was clustered by ES site and correlated with site catchment population in Vellore but not Blantyre. Incidence of culture-confirmed typhoid in local hospitals was low during the study and zero some months in Vellore despite S. Typhi detection in ES.ConclusionsES describes the prevalence and distribution of S. Typhi even in the absence of typhoid cases and could inform vaccine introduction. Expanded implementation and comparison with clinical and serological surveillance will further establish its public health utility.
| S-EPMC11011185 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDiarrhoeal disease remains a leading cause of death among children mostly in low and middle-income countries. Factors contributing to disease severity are complex and there is currently no consensus on a scoring tool for use in community-based studies.MethodsData were collected during a passive surveillance system in an outpatient health facility in Lusaka, Zambia from March 2019 to July 2019. Diarrhea episodes were assessed for severity using an in-house severity scoring tool (CIDRZ) and previously published scores (Vesikari, Clark, CODA, and DHAKA). The CIDRZ score was constructed using fieldworker-reported clinical signs and exploratory factor analysis. We used precision-recall curves measuring severe diarrhoea (i.e., requiring intravenous rehydration or referred for hospital admission) to determine the best performing scores. Then, we used Cronbach's alpha to assess the scale's internal consistency. Finally, we used Cohen's kappa to assess agreement between the scores.ResultsOf 110 diarrhea episodes, 3 (3%) required intravenous rehydration or were referred for hospital admission. The precision-recall area under the curve of each score as a predictor of severe diarrhoea requiring intravenous rehydration or hospital admission was 0.26 for Vesikari, 0.18 for CODA, 0.24 for Clark, 0.59 for DHAKA, and 0.59 for CIDRZ. The CIDRZ scale had substantial reliability and performed similarly to the DHAKA score.ConclusionsDiarrhoea severity scores focused on characteristics specific to dehydration status may better predict severe diarrhea among children in Lusaka. Aetiology-specific scoring tools may not be appropriate for use in community healthcare settings. Validation studies for the CIDRZ score in diverse settings and with larger sample sizes are warranted.
| S-EPMC9377573 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPrecise enteric fever disease burden data are needed to inform prevention and control measures, including the use of newly available typhoid vaccines. We established the Surveillance for Enteric Fever in Asia Project (SEAP) to inform these strategies.MethodsFrom September, 2016, to September, 2019, we conducted prospective clinical surveillance for Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (S Typhi) and Paratyphi (S Paratyphi) A, B, and C at health facilities in predetermined catchment areas in Dhaka, Bangladesh; Kathmandu and Kavrepalanchok, Nepal; and Karachi, Pakistan. Patients eligible for inclusion were outpatients with 3 or more consecutive days of fever in the last 7 days; inpatients with suspected or confirmed enteric fever; patients with blood culture-confirmed enteric fever from the hospital laboratories not captured by inpatient or outpatient enrolment and cases from the laboratory network; and patients with non-traumatic ileal perforation under surgical care. We used a hybrid surveillance model, pairing facility-based blood culture surveillance with community surveys of health-care use. Blood cultures were performed for enrolled patients. We calculated overall and age-specific typhoid and paratyphoid incidence estimates for each study site. Adjusted estimates accounted for the sensitivity of blood culture, the proportion of eligible individuals who consented and provided blood, the probability of care-seeking at a study facility, and the influence of wealth and education on care-seeking. We additionally calculated incidence of hospitalisation due to typhoid and paratyphoid.FindingsA total of 34 747 patients were enrolled across 23 facilitates (six tertiary hospitals, surgical wards of two additional hospitals, and 15 laboratory network sites) during the study period. Of the 34 303 blood cultures performed on enrolled patients, 8705 (26%) were positive for typhoidal Salmonella. Adjusted incidence rates of enteric fever considered patients in the six tertiary hospitals. Adjusted incidence of S Typhi, expressed per 100 000 person-years, was 913 (95% CI 765-1095) in Dhaka. In Nepal, the adjusted typhoid incidence rates were 330 (230-480) in Kathmandu and 268 (202-362) in Kavrepalanchok. In Pakistan, the adjusted incidence rates per hospital site were 176 (144-216) and 103 (85-126). The adjusted incidence rates of paratyphoid (of which all included cases were due to S Paratyphi A) were 128 (107-154) in Bangladesh, 46 (34-62) and 81 (56-118) in the Nepal sites, and 23 (19-29) and 1 (1-1) in the Pakistan sites. Adjusted incidence of hospitalisation was high across sites, and overall, 2804 (32%) of 8705 patients with blood culture-confirmed enteric fever were hospitalised.InterpretationAcross diverse communities in three south Asian countries, adjusted incidence exceeded the threshold for "high burden" of enteric fever (100 per 100 000 person-years). Incidence was highest among children, although age patterns differed across sites. The substantial disease burden identified highlights the need for control measures, including improvements to water and sanitation infrastructure and the implementation of typhoid vaccines.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC9210262 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Typhoid fever is a notifiable disease within Australia. Although studies in endemic regions give an indication of acquisition risk, many countries lack reliable data, and little is known of the absolute or relative risk in Australian travellers. By combining notified case data with travel statistics provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the aim of this study was to give an indication of risk for typhoid acquisition among Australian travellers. Australian typhoid notifications between 1st January 2010 and 30th June 2017 were grouped by country of acquisition and age category (<15 or ≥15 years). Australian travel data were used to inform time at risk and incidence rate of Australian typhoid notifications pertaining to country and region of acquisition. Salmonella Paratyphi infections, though notifiable, were excluded as the focus was vaccine preventable illness. Data from New South Wales and Victoria were used to examine the incidence in those acquiring infection in their country of birth (COB) against travellers who did not. Nine hundred twenty-three cases of typhoid were notified over the period of review, 96% of which were acquired overseas. The greatest determinant of risk was travel destination, with countries in south Asia associated with highest crude incidence rate (252 per 100 000 person-years), particularly Bangladesh. Younger age and immigrants returning to their COB were generally associated with higher risk of acquisition. The risk of typhoid fever in Australian travellers to endemic regions is considerable. Immigrants returning to their COB appear to be at higher risk and it is likely that this risk extends to their traveling dependents. These findings help clinicians and public health officials to plan and advise pre-travel vaccination strategies with at-risk individuals and groups. Additional sociodemographic data collection with Australian typhoid notifications would enhance the surveillance of differing international travel risk groups leaving Australia.
| S-EPMC8715417 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe incidence of enteric fever, an invasive bacterial infection caused by typhoidal Salmonellae (Salmonella enterica serovars Typhi and Paratyphi), is largely unknown in regions without blood culture surveillance. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether new diagnostic serological markers for typhoidal Salmonella can reliably estimate population-level incidence.MethodsWe collected longitudinal blood samples from patients with blood culture-confirmed enteric fever enrolled from surveillance studies in Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Ghana between 2016 and 2021 and conducted cross-sectional serosurveys in the catchment areas of each surveillance site. We used ELISAs to measure quantitative IgA and IgG antibody responses to hemolysin E and S Typhi lipopolysaccharide. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to fit two-phase power-function decay models to the longitudinal antibody responses among enteric fever cases and used the joint distributions of the peak antibody titres and decay rate to estimate population-level incidence rates from cross-sectional serosurveys.FindingsThe longitudinal antibody kinetics for all antigen-isotypes were similar across countries and did not vary by clinical severity. The seroincidence of typhoidal Salmonella infection among children younger than 5 years ranged between 58·5 per 100 person-years (95% CI 42·1-81·4) in Dhaka, Bangladesh, to 6·6 per 100 person-years (4·3-9·9) in Kavrepalanchok, Nepal, and followed the same rank order as clinical incidence estimates.InterpretationThe approach described here has the potential to expand the geographical scope of typhoidal Salmonella surveillance and generate incidence estimates that are comparable across geographical regions and time.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.TranslationsFor the Nepali, Bengali and Urdu translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
| S-EPMC9329131 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Electronic data capture systems (EDCs) have the potential to achieve efficiency and quality in collection of multisite data. We quantify the volume, time, accuracy and costs of an EDC using large-scale census data from the STRATAA consortium, a comprehensive programme assessing population dynamics and epidemiology of typhoid fever in Malawi, Nepal and Bangladesh to inform vaccine and public health interventions. A census form was developed through a structured iterative process and implemented using Open Data Kit Collect running on Android-based tablets. Data were uploaded to Open Data Kit Aggregate, then auto-synced to MySQL-defined database nightly. Data were backed-up daily from three sites centrally, and auto-reported weekly. Pre-census materials' costs were estimated. Demographics of 308,348 individuals from 80,851 households were recorded within an average of 14.7 weeks range (13-16) using 65 fieldworkers. Overall, 21.7 errors (95% confidence interval: 21.4, 22.0) per 10,000 data points were found: 13.0 (95% confidence interval: 12.6, 13.5) and 24.5 (95% confidence interval: 24.1, 24.9) errors on numeric and text fields respectively. These values meet standard quality threshold of 50 errors per 10,000 data points. The EDC's total variable cost was estimated at US$13,791.82 per site. In conclusion, the EDC is robust, allowing for timely and high-volume accurate data collection, and could be adopted in similar epidemiological settings.
| S-EPMC7471626 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundContemporary incidence estimates of typhoid fever are needed to guide policy decisions and control measures and to improve future epidemiological studies.MethodsWe systematically reviewed 3 databases (Ovid Medline, PubMed, and Scopus) without restriction on age, country, language, or time for studies reporting the incidence of blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever. Outbreak, travel-associated, and passive government surveillance reports were excluded. We performed a meta-analysis using a random-effects model to calculate estimates of pooled incidence, stratifying by studies that reported the incidence of typhoid fever and those that estimated incidence by using multipliers.ResultsThirty-three studies were included in the analysis. There were 26 study sites from 16 countries reporting typhoid cases from population-based incidence studies, and 17 sites in 9 countries used multipliers to account for underascertainment in sentinel surveillance data. We identified Africa and Asia as regions with studies showing high typhoid incidence while noting considerable variation of typhoid incidence in time and place, including in consecutive years at the same location. Overall, more recent studies reported lower typhoid incidence compared to years prior to 2000. We identified variation in the criteria for collecting a blood culture, and among multiplier studies we identified a lack of a standardization for the types of multipliers being used to estimate incidence.ConclusionsTyphoid fever incidence remains high at many sites. Additional and more accurate typhoid incidence studies are needed to support country decisions about typhoid conjugate vaccine adoption. Standardization of multiplier types applied in multiplier studies is recommended.
| S-EPMC6405273 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach has been used to infer demographic parameters for numerous species, including humans. However, most applications of ABC still use limited amounts of data, from a small number of loci, compared to the large amount of genome-wide population-genetic data which have become available in the last few years.ResultsWe evaluated the performance of the ABC approach for three 'population divergence' models - similar to the 'isolation with migration' model - when the data consists of several hundred thousand SNPs typed for multiple individuals by simulating data from known demographic models. The ABC approach was used to infer demographic parameters of interest and we compared the inferred values to the true parameter values that was used to generate hypothetical "observed" data. For all three case models, the ABC approach inferred most demographic parameters quite well with narrow credible intervals, for example, population divergence times and past population sizes, but some parameters were more difficult to infer, such as population sizes at present and migration rates. We compared the ability of different summary statistics to infer demographic parameters, including haplotype and LD based statistics, and found that the accuracy of the parameter estimates can be improved by combining summary statistics that capture different parts of information in the data. Furthermore, our results suggest that poor choices of prior distributions can in some circumstances be detected using ABC. Finally, increasing the amount of data beyond some hundred loci will substantially improve the accuracy of many parameter estimates using ABC.ConclusionsWe conclude that the ABC approach can accommodate realistic genome-wide population genetic data, which may be difficult to analyze with full likelihood approaches, and that the ABC can provide accurate and precise inference of demographic parameters from these data, suggesting that the ABC approach will be a useful tool for analyzing large genome-wide datasets.
| S-EPMC3368717 | biostudies-literature