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Dynamic causal modelling of COVID-19 and its mitigations.

ABSTRACT: This technical report describes the dynamic causal modelling of mitigated epidemiological outcomes during the COVID-9 coronavirus outbreak in 2020. Dynamic causal modelling is a form of complex system modelling, which uses 'real world' timeseries to estimate the parameters of an underlying state space model using variational Bayesian procedures. Its key contribution-in an epidemiological setting-is to embed conventional models within a larger model of sociobehavioural responses-in a way that allows for (relatively assumption-free) forecasting. One advantage of using variational Bayes is that one can progressively optimise the model via Bayesian model selection: generally, the most likely models become more expressive as more data becomes available. This report summarises the model (on 6-Nov-20), eight months after the inception of dynamic causal modelling for COVID-19. This model-and its subsequent updates-is used to provide nowcasts and forecasts of latent behavioural and epidemiological variables as an open science resource. The current report describes the underlying model structure and the rationale for the variational procedures that underwrite Bayesian model selection.

SUBMITTER: Friston KJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9298167 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Dynamic causal modelling of COVID-19 and its mitigations.

Friston Karl J KJ Flandin Guillaume G Razi Adeel A

Scientific reports 20220720 1

This technical report describes the dynamic causal modelling of mitigated epidemiological outcomes during the COVID-9 coronavirus outbreak in 2020. Dynamic causal modelling is a form of complex system modelling, which uses 'real world' timeseries to estimate the parameters of an underlying state space model using variational Bayesian procedures. Its key contribution-in an epidemiological setting-is to embed conventional models within a larger model of sociobehavioural responses-in a way that all ...[more]

PMID: 35859054

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Project description:Functional and effective connectivity are known to change systematically over time. These changes might be explained by several factors, including intrinsic fluctuations in activity-dependent neuronal coupling and contextual factors, like experimental condition and time. Furthermore, contextual effects may be subject-specific or conserved over subjects. To characterize fluctuations in effective connectivity, we used dynamic causal modelling (DCM) of cross spectral responses over 1- min of electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings during rest, divided into 1-sec windows. We focused on two intrinsic networks: the default mode and the saliency network. DCM was applied to estimate connectivity in each time-window for both networks. Fluctuations in DCM connectivity parameters were assessed using hierarchical parametric empirical Bayes (PEB). Within-subject, between-window effects were modelled with a second-level linear model with temporal basis functions as regressors. This procedure was conducted for every subject separately. Bayesian model reduction was then used to assess which (combination of) temporal basis functions best explain dynamic connectivity over windows. A third (between-subject) level model was used to infer which dynamic connectivity parameters are conserved over subjects. Our results indicate that connectivity fluctuations in the default mode network and to a lesser extent the saliency network comprised both subject-specific components and a common component. For both networks, connections to higher order regions appear to monotonically increase during the 1- min period. These results not only establish the predictive validity of dynamic connectivity estimates - in virtue of detecting systematic changes over subjects - they also suggest a network-specific dissociation in the relative contribution of fluctuations in connectivity that depend upon experimental context. We envisage these procedures could be useful for characterizing brain state transitions that may be explained by their cognitive or neuropathological underpinnings.

Dataset Information

Dynamic causal modelling of COVID-19 and its mitigations.

Publications

Dynamic causal modelling of COVID-19 and its mitigations.

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