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Plague risk in the western United States over seven decades of environmental change.

ABSTRACT: After several pandemics over the last two millennia, the wildlife reservoirs of plague (Yersinia pestis) now persist around the world, including in the western United States. Routine surveillance in this region has generated comprehensive records of human cases and animal seroprevalence, creating a unique opportunity to test how plague reservoirs are responding to environmental change. Here, we test whether animal and human data suggest that plague reservoirs and spillover risk have shifted since 1950. To do so, we develop a new method for detecting the impact of climate change on infectious disease distributions, capable of disentangling long-term trends (signal) and interannual variation in both weather and sampling (noise). We find that plague foci are associated with high-elevation rodent communities, and soil biochemistry may play a key role in the geography of long-term persistence. In addition, we find that human cases are concentrated only in a small subset of endemic areas, and that spillover events are driven by higher rodent species richness (the amplification hypothesis) and climatic anomalies (the trophic cascade hypothesis). Using our detection model, we find that due to the changing climate, rodent communities at high elevations have become more conducive to the establishment of plague reservoirs-with suitability increasing up to 40% in some places-and that spillover risk to humans at mid-elevations has increased as well, although more gradually. These results highlight opportunities for deeper investigation of plague ecology, the value of integrative surveillance for infectious disease geography, and the need for further research into ongoing climate change impacts.

SUBMITTER: Carlson CJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9299200 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Soybean (Glycine max L. Merrill) is an economically important commodity for United States agriculture. Nonetheless, the profitability of soybean production has been negatively impacted by soybean diseases. The economic impacts of 23 common soybean diseases were estimated in 28 soybean-producing states in the U.S., from 1996 to 2016 (the entire data set consisted of 13,524 data points). Estimated losses were investigated using a variety of statistical approaches. The main effects of state, year, pre- and post-discovery of soybean rust, region, and zones based on yield, harvest area, and production, were significant on "total economic loss" as a function of diseases. Across states and years, the soybean cyst nematode, charcoal rot, and seedling diseases were the most economically damaging diseases while soybean rust, bacterial blight, and southern blight were the least economically damaging. A significantly greater mean loss (51%) was observed in states/years after the discovery of soybean rust (2004 to 2016) compared to the pre-discovery (1996 to 2003). From 1996 to 2016, the total estimated economic loss due to soybean diseases in the U.S. was $95.48 billion, with $80.89 billion and $14.59 billion accounting for the northern and southern U.S. losses, respectively. Over the entire time period, the average annual economic loss due to soybean diseases in the U.S. reached nearly $4.55 billion, with approximately 85% of the losses occurring in the northern U.S. Low yield/harvest/production zones had significantly lower mean economic losses due to diseases in comparison to high yield/harvest/production zones. This observation was further bolstered by the observed positive linear correlation of mean soybean yield loss (in each state, due to all diseases considered in this study, across 21 years) with the mean state wide soybean production (MT), mean soybean yield (kg ha-1), and mean soybean harvest area (ha). Results of this investigation provide useful insights into how research, policy, and educational efforts should be prioritized in soybean disease management.

Project description:Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)- Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to assess how well the changes in observed ozone air quality are simulated by the model. The changes induced by variations in meteorology and/or emissions are also evaluated during the same timeframe using spectral decomposition of observed and modeled ozone time series with the aim of identifying the underlying forcing mechanisms that control ozone exceedances and making informed recommendations for the optimal use of regional-scale air quality models. The evaluation is focused on the warm season's (i.e., May-September) daily maximum 8-hr (DM8HR) ozone concentrations, the 4th highest (4th) and average of top 10 DM8HR ozone values (top10), as well as the spectrally-decomposed components of the DM8HR ozone time series using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. Results of the dynamic evaluation are presented for six regions in the U.S., consistent with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climatic regions. During the earlier 11-yr period (1990-2000), the simulated and observed trends are not statistically significant. During the more recent 2000-2010 period, all trends are statistically significant and WRF-CMAQ captures the observed trend in most regions. Given large number of sites for the 2000-2010 period, the model captures the observed trends in the Southwest (SW) and MW but has significantly different trend from that seen in observations for the other regions. Observational analysis reveals that it is the long-term forcing that dictates how high the ozone exceedances will be; there is a strong linear relationship between the long-term forcing and the 4th highest or the average of the top10 ozone concentrations in both observations and model output. This finding indicates that improving the model's ability to reproduce the long-term component will also enable better simulation of ozone extreme values that are of interest to regulatory agencies.

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Plague risk in the western United States over seven decades of environmental change.

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