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Comparing sources of mobility for modelling the epidemic spread of Zika virus in Colombia.

ABSTRACT: Timely, accurate, and comparative data on human mobility is of paramount importance for epidemic preparedness and response, but generally not available or easily accessible. Mobile phone metadata, typically in the form of Call Detail Records (CDRs), represents a powerful source of information on human movements at an unprecedented scale. In this work, we investigate the potential benefits of harnessing aggregated CDR-derived mobility to predict the 2015-2016 Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in Colombia, when compared to other traditional data sources. To simulate the spread of ZIKV at sub-national level in Colombia, we employ a stochastic metapopulation epidemic model for vector-borne diseases. Our model integrates detailed data on the key drivers of ZIKV spread, including the spatial heterogeneity of the mosquito abundance, and the exposure of the population to the virus due to environmental and socio-economic factors. Given the same modelling settings (i.e. initial conditions and epidemiological parameters), we perform in-silico simulations for each mobility network and assess their ability in reproducing the local outbreak as reported by the official surveillance data. We assess the performance of our epidemic modelling approach in capturing the ZIKV outbreak both nationally and sub-nationally. Our model estimates are strongly correlated with the surveillance data at the country level (Pearson's r = 0.92 for the CDR-informed network). Moreover, we found strong performance of the model estimates generated by the CDR-informed mobility networks in reproducing the local outbreak observed at the sub-national level. Compared to the CDR-informed networks, the performance of the other mobility networks is either comparatively similar or substantially lower, with no added value in predicting the local epidemic. This suggests that mobile phone data captures a better picture of human mobility patterns. This work contributes to the ongoing discussion on the value of aggregated mobility estimates from CDRs data that, with appropriate data protection and privacy safeguards, can be used for social impact applications and humanitarian action.

SUBMITTER: Perrotta D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9299334 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundZika virus (ZIKV) emerged as a global epidemic in 2015-2016 from Latin America with its true geographical extent remaining unclear due to widely presumed underreporting. The identification of locations with potential and unknown spread of ZIKV is a key yet understudied component for outbreak preparedness. Here, we aim to identify locations at a high risk of cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016 to further the understanding of the global ZIKV epidemiology, which is critical for the mitigation of the risk of future epidemics.MethodsWe developed an importation simulation model to estimate the weekly number of ZIKV infections imported in each susceptible spatial unit (i.e. location that did not report any autochthonous Zika cases during 2015-2016), integrating epidemiological, demographic, and travel data as model inputs. Thereafter, a global risk model was applied to estimate the weekly ZIKV transmissibility during 2015-2016 for each location. Finally, we assessed the risk of onward ZIKV spread following importation in each susceptible spatial unit to identify locations with a high potential for cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016.ResultsWe have found 24 susceptible spatial units that were likely to have experienced cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016, of which 10 continue to have a high risk estimate within a highly conservative scenario, namely, Luanda in Angola, Banten in Indonesia, Maharashtra in India, Lagos in Nigeria, Taiwan and Guangdong in China, Dakar in Senegal, Maputo in Mozambique, Kinshasa in Congo DRC, and Pool in Congo. Notably, among the 24 susceptible spatial units identified, some have reported their first ZIKV outbreaks since 2017, thus adding to the credibility of our results (derived using 2015-2016 data only).ConclusionOur study has provided valuable insights into the potentially high-risk locations for cryptic ZIKV circulation during the 2015-2016 pandemic and has also laid a foundation for future studies that attempt to further narrow this key knowledge gap. Our modelling framework can be adapted to identify areas with likely unknown spread of other emerging vector-borne diseases, which has important implications for public health readiness especially in resource-limited settings.

Project description:BackgroundZika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region in 2013, with serious implications for population health in the region. In 2016, the World Health Organization declared the ZIKV outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern following a cluster of associated neurological disorders and neonatal malformations. In 2017, Zika cases declined, but future incidence in LAC remains uncertain due to gaps in our understanding, considerable variation in surveillance and the lack of a comprehensive collation of data from affected countries.MethodsOur analysis combines information on confirmed and suspected Zika cases across LAC countries and a spatio-temporal dynamic transmission model for ZIKV infection to determine key transmission parameters and projected incidence in 90 major cities within 35 countries. Seasonality was determined by spatio-temporal estimates of Aedes aegypti vectorial capacity. We used country and state-level data from 2015 to mid-2017 to infer key model parameters, country-specific disease reporting rates, and the 2018 projected incidence. A 10-fold cross-validation approach was used to validate parameter estimates to out-of-sample epidemic trajectories.ResultsThere was limited transmission in 2015, but in 2016 and 2017 there was sufficient opportunity for wide-spread ZIKV transmission in most cities, resulting in the depletion of susceptible individuals. We predict that the highest number of cases in 2018 would present within some Brazilian States (Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro), Colombia and French Guiana, but the estimated number of cases were no more than a few hundred. Model estimates of the timing of the peak in incidence were correlated (p?<?0.05) with the reported peak in incidence. The reporting rate varied across countries, with lower reporting rates for those with only confirmed cases compared to those who reported both confirmed and suspected cases.ConclusionsThe findings suggest that the ZIKV epidemic is by and large over within LAC, with incidence projected to be low in most cities in 2018. Local low levels of transmission are probable, but the estimated rate of infection suggests that most cities have a population with high levels of herd immunity.

Project description:BackgroundIn 2015 and 2016, Colombia had a widespread outbreak of Zika virus. Data from two national population-based surveillance systems for symptomatic Zika virus disease (ZVD) and birth defects provided complementary information on the effect of the Zika virus outbreak on pregnancies and infant outcomes.MethodsWe collected national surveillance data regarding cases of pregnant women with ZVD that were reported during the period from June 2015 through July 2016. The presence of Zika virus RNA was identified in a subgroup of these women on real-time reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction (rRT-PCR) assay. Brain or eye defects in infants and fetuses and other adverse pregnancy outcomes were identified among the women who had laboratory-confirmed ZVD and for whom data were available regarding pregnancy outcomes. We compared the nationwide prevalence of brain and eye defects during the outbreak with the prevalence both before and after the outbreak period.ResultsOf 18,117 pregnant women with ZVD, the presence of Zika virus was confirmed in 5926 (33%) on rRT-PCR. Of the 5673 pregnancies with laboratory-confirmed ZVD for which outcomes had been reported, 93 infants or fetuses (2%) had brain or eye defects. The incidence of brain or eye defects was higher among pregnancies in which the mother had an onset of ZVD symptoms in the first trimester than in those with an onset during the second or third trimester (3% vs. 1%). A total of 172 of 5673 pregnancies (3%) resulted in pregnancy loss; after the exclusion of pregnancies affected by birth defects, 409 of 5426 (8%) resulted in preterm birth and 333 of 5426 (6%) in low birth weight. The prevalence of brain or eye defects during the outbreak was 13 per 10,000 live births, as compared with a prevalence of 8 per 10,000 live births before the outbreak and 11 per 10,000 live births after the outbreak.ConclusionsIn pregnant women with laboratory-confirmed ZVD, brain or eye defects in infants or fetuses were more common during the Zika virus outbreak than during the periods immediately before and after the outbreak. The frequency of such defects was increased among women with a symptom onset early in pregnancy. (Funded by the Colombian Instituto Nacional de Salud and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.).

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Comparing sources of mobility for modelling the epidemic spread of Zika virus in Colombia.

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