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PREDICT underestimates survival of patients with HER2-positive early-stage breast cancer.

ABSTRACT: The prognostic performance of PREDICT in patients with HER2-positive early breast cancer (EBC) treated in the modern era with effective chemotherapy and anti-HER2 targeted therapies is unclear. Therefore, we investigated its prognostic performance using data extracted from ALTTO, a phase III trial evaluating adjuvant lapatinib ± trastuzumab vs. trastuzumab alone in patients with HER2-positive EBC. Our analysis included 2794 patients. After a median follow-up of 6.0 years (IQR, 5.8-6.7), 182 deaths were observed. Overall, PREDICT underestimated 5-year OS by 6.7% (95% CI, 5.8-7.6): observed 5-year OS was 94.7% vs. predicted 88.0%. The underestimation was consistent across all subgroups, including those according to the type of anti HER2-therapy. The highest absolute differences were observed for patients with hormone receptor negative-disease, nodal involvement, and large tumor size (13.0%, 15.8%, and 15.3%, respectively). AUC under the ROC curve was 73.7% (95% CI 69.7-77.8) in the overall population, ranging between 61.7% and 77.7% across the analyzed subgroups. In conclusion, our analysis showed that PREDICT highly underestimated OS in HER2-positive EBC. Hence, it should be used with caution to give prognostic estimation to HER2-positive EBC patients treated in the modern era with effective chemotherapy and anti-HER2 targeted therapies.

SUBMITTER: Agostinetto E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9300724 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background:In premenopausal patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive early breast cancer, the gonadotoxicity of trastuzumab and lapatinib remains largely uncertain, and the prognostic effect of treatment-related amenorrhea (TRA) is unknown. Methods:In the Adjuvant Lapatinib and/or Trastuzumab Treatment Optimization (BIG 2-06) phase III trial, HER2-positive early breast cancer patients were randomized (1:1:1:1) to receive one year of trastuzumab, lapatinib, their sequence, or their combination. As per study protocol, menopausal status was collected in all patients at random assignment and at week 37 visit. We investigated TRA rates and whether TRA in patients with hormone receptor-positive and -negative tumors would impact disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Landmark and time-dependent modeling were used to account for guarantee-time bias. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results:A total of 2862 premenopausal women were included, of whom 1679 (58.7%) had hormone receptor-positive disease. Median age was 43 (interquartile range = 38-47) years. Similar TRA rates were observed in the trastuzumab (72.6%), lapatinib (74.0%), trastuzumab?lapatinib (72.1%), and trastuzumab+lapatinib (74.8%) arms (P = .64). The association between TRA and survival outcomes differed according to hormone-receptor status (Pinteraction for DFS = .007; Pinteraction for OS = .003). For hormone receptor-positive patients, the TRA cohort had statistically significantly better DFS (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.45 to 0.76) and OS (aHR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.40 to 0.99) than the no TRA cohort. No difference was observed in hormone receptor-negative patients. Conclusions:In this unplanned analysis, no association between TRA rate and type of anti-HER2 treatment was observed. TRA was associated with statistically significant survival benefits in premenopausal hormone receptor-positive/HER2-positive early breast cancer patients.

Project description:The presence of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes at diagnosis is reported to be prognostic in triple-negative breast cancer.To evaluate the association of stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (STILs) with recurrence-free survival (RFS) in women with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive breast cancer treated with chemotherapy or chemotherapy plus trastuzumab in the N9831 trial.Hematoxylin-eosin-stained tumor slides from patients with early-stage HER2-positive breast cancer in 2 of the 3 arms of the N9831 trial were assessed for STILs at an academic medical center. The amounts of STILs were quantitated in deciles, and a level of at least 60% STILs was used for the prespecified categorical cutoff. The association between STILs and RFS was evaluated with Cox models.Standard chemotherapy consisting of doxorubicin-cyclophosphamide followed by weekly paclitaxel (arm A) or doxorubicin-cyclophosphamide followed by weekly paclitaxel plus trastuzumab followed by trastuzumab alone (arm C).Stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes and their association with RFS.A total of 489 patients from arm A and 456 patients from arm C were assessed with a median (range) follow-up of 4.4 (0-13.6) years. The 10-year Kaplan-Meier estimates for RFS in arm A were 90.9% and 64.5% for patients with high and low levels of STILs, respectively (hazard ratio [HR], 0.23 [95% CI, 0.07-0.73]; P = .01). The 10-year estimates for RFS in arm C were 80.0% and 80.1% for patients with high and low levels of STILs, respectively (HR, 1.26 [95% CI, 0.50-3.17]; P = .63). The test for interaction between trastuzumab treatment and STIL status was statistically significant (P = .03). In a multivariable analysis, STIL status remained significantly associated with RFS in arm A and not significantly associated in arm C (HR, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.89-1.15]; interaction P = .04).This analysis of participants in the N9831 trial found that the presence of STILs was prognostically associated with RFS in patients treated with chemotherapy alone but not in patients treated with chemotherapy plus trastuzumab. High levels of STILs were associated with lack of trastuzumab therapy benefit, in contrast to a previously reported association between increased levels of STILs and increased trastuzumab benefit in HER2-positive patients.clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00005970.

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PREDICT underestimates survival of patients with HER2-positive early-stage breast cancer.

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