Excess deaths in the United States during the first year of COVID-19.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Ruhm CJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9304075 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundAlthough the COVID-19 pandemic has persisted for more than two years with the evident excess mortality from diabetes, few studies have investigated its temporal patterns. This study aims to estimate the excess deaths from diabetes in the United States (US) during the COVID-19 pandemic and evaluate the excess deaths by spatiotemporal pattern, age groups, sex, and race/ethnicity.MethodsDiabetes as one of multiple causes of death or an underlying cause of death were both considered into analyses. The Poisson log-linear regression model was used to estimate weekly expected counts of deaths during the pandemic with adjustments for long-term trend and seasonality. Excess deaths were measured by the difference between observed and expected death counts, including weekly average excess deaths, excess death rate, and excess risk. We calculated the excess estimates by pandemic wave, US state, and demographic characteristic.ResultsFrom March 2020 to March 2022, deaths that diabetes as one of multiple causes of death and an underlying cause of death were about 47.6 % and 18.4 % higher than the expected. The excess deaths of diabetes had evident temporal patterns with two large percentage increases observed during March 2020, to June 2020, and June 2021 to November 2021. The regional heterogeneity and underlying age and racial/ethnic disparities of the excess deaths were also clearly observed.ConclusionsThis study highlighted the increased risks of diabetes mortality, heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns, and associated demographic disparities during the pandemic. Practical actions are warranted to monitor disease progression, and lessen health disparities in patients with diabetes during the COVID-19 pandemic.
| S-EPMC9873362 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAlthough the direct toll of COVID-19 in the United States has been substantial, concerns have also arisen about the indirect effects of the pandemic. Hospitalizations for acute cardiovascular conditions have declined, raising concern that patients may be avoiding hospitals because of fear of contracting severe acute respiratory syndrome- coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Other factors, including strain on health care systems, may also have had an indirect toll.ObjectivesThis investigation aimed to evaluate whether population-level deaths due to cardiovascular causes increased during the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsThe authors conducted an observational cohort study using data from the National Center for Health Statistics to evaluate the rate of deaths due to cardiovascular causes after the onset of the pandemic in the United States, from March 18, 2020, to June 2, 2020, relative to the period immediately preceding the pandemic (January 1, 2020 to March 17, 2020). Changes in deaths were compared with the same periods in the previous year.ResultsThere were 397,042 cardiovascular deaths from January 1, 2020, to June 2, 2020. Deaths caused by ischemic heart disease increased nationally after the onset of the pandemic in 2020, compared with changes over the same period in 2019 (ratio of the relative change in deaths per 100,000 in 2020 vs. 2019: 1.11, 95% confidence interval: 1.04 to 1.18). An increase was also observed for deaths caused by hypertensive disease (1.17, 95% confidence interval: 1.09 to 1.26), but not for heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, or other diseases of the circulatory system. New York City experienced a large relative increase in deaths caused by ischemic heart disease (2.39, 95% confidence interval: 1.39 to 4.09) and hypertensive diseases (2.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.52 to 4.56) during the pandemic. More modest increases in deaths caused by these conditions occurred in the remainder of New York State, New Jersey, Michigan, and Illinois but not in Massachusetts or Louisiana.ConclusionsThere was an increase in deaths caused by ischemic heart disease and hypertensive diseases in some regions of the United States during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings suggest that the pandemic may have had an indirect toll on patients with cardiovascular disease.
| S-EPMC7800141 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We compare the impact of the first two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic on risk of age-standardized mortality by sex, UK country, and English region. Each wave is defined as lasting 26 weeks and are consecutive beginning in 2020 week 11. The expected rate is estimated from 2015 to 2019 mean and the projected mortality trend from the same period are used to estimate excess mortality. By both measures, excess mortality was highest and lowest in regions of England, London and the South-West, respectively. Excess mortality was consistently higher for males than females.
| S-EPMC10990540 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and purposeThe magnitude and drivers of excess cerebrovascular-specific mortality during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are unknown. We aim to quantify excess stroke-related deaths and characterize its association with social distancing behavior and COVID-19-related vascular pathology.MethodsUnited States and state-level excess cerebrovascular deaths from January to May 2020 were quantified using National Center for Health Statistic data and Poisson regression models. Excess cerebrovascular deaths were analyzed as a function of time-varying stroke-related emergency medical service (EMS) calls and cumulative COVID-19 deaths using linear regression. A state-level regression analysis was performed to determine the association between excess cerebrovascular deaths and time spent in residences, measured by Google Community Mobility Reports, during the height of the pandemic after the first COVID-19 death (February 29).ResultsForty states and New York City were included. Excess cerebrovascular mortality occurred nationally from the weeks ending March 28 to May 2, 2020, up to a 7.8% increase above expected levels during the week of April 18. Decreased stroke-related EMS calls were associated with excess stroke deaths one (70 deaths per 1000 fewer EMS calls [95% CI, 20-118]) and 2 weeks (85 deaths per 1000 fewer EMS calls [95% CI, 37-133]) later. Twenty-three states and New York City experienced excess cerebrovascular mortality during the pandemic height. A 10% increase in time spent at home was associated with a 4.3% increase in stroke deaths (incidence rate ratio, 1.043 [95% CI, 1.001-1.085]) after adjusting for COVID-19 deaths.ConclusionsExcess US cerebrovascular deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic were observed and associated with decreases in stroke-related EMS calls nationally and mobility at the state level. Public health measures are needed to identify and counter the reticence to seeking medical care for acute stroke during the COVID-19 pandemic.
| S-EPMC7834664 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Accurate and timely tracking of COVID-19 deaths is essential to a well-functioning public health surveillance system. The extent to which official COVID-19 death tallies have captured the true toll of the pandemic in the United States is unknown. In the current study, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate monthly excess mortality in each county over the first two years of the pandemic and compare these estimates to the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 on death certificates. Overall, we estimated that 268,176 excess deaths were not reported as Covid-19 deaths during the first two years of the Covid-19 pandemic, which represented 23.7% of all excess deaths that occurred. Differences between excess deaths and reported COVID-19 deaths were substantial in both the first and second year of the pandemic. Excess deaths were less likely to be reported as COVID-19 deaths in the Mountain division, in the South, and in nonmetro counties. The number of excess deaths exceeded COVID-19 deaths in all Census divisions except for the New England and Middle Atlantic divisions where there were more COVID-19 deaths than excess deaths in large metro areas and medium or small metro areas. Increases in excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 followed similar patterns over time to increases in reported COVID-19 deaths and typically preceded or occurred concurrently with increases in reported COVID-19 deaths. Estimates from this study can be used to inform targeting of resources to areas in which the true toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has been underestimated.
| S-EPMC9882565 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo investigate the mortality impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on US-born and foreign-born populations by race and Hispanic origin in the United States in 2020.MethodsDeath records from the National Center for Health Statistics and population data from CDC WONDER were used to estimate (1) age-standardized all-cause and cause-specific mortality at ages 25+, 25-64, and 65+ in 2017-2019 and 2020 by nativity, race, Hispanic origin, and sex; (2) changes in mortality between these two periods; and (3) the cause-specific contributions to these changes.ResultsMortality increased in 2020 relative to 2017-2019 for all racial and Hispanic-origin groups. Adjusting for age, mortality increases were larger at ages 25+ among foreign-born males (390 deaths for 100,000 residents) and females (189) than among US-born males (223) and females (144). The large mortality rise among foreign-born Hispanic men (593) contributed to the narrowing of their mortality advantage relative to White men, from 426 to 134. An increase in mortality among both foreign-born and US-born Black males and females increased the Black-White mortality disparities by 318 for males and by 180 for females. Although COVID-19 mortality was the main driver of the increase among foreign-born residents, circulatory diseases and malignant neoplasms also contributed.ContributionWe show that the COVID-19 pandemic had a greater impact on foreign-born populations than on their US-born counterparts. These findings highlight the need to address the underlying inequalities and unique challenges faced by foreign-born populations.
| S-EPMC10861242 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceEfforts to track the severity and public health impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States have been hampered by state-level differences in diagnostic test availability, differing strategies for prioritization of individuals for testing, and delays between testing and reporting. Evaluating unexplained increases in deaths due to all causes or attributed to nonspecific outcomes, such as pneumonia and influenza, can provide a more complete picture of the burden of COVID-19.ObjectiveTo estimate the burden of all deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States from March to May 2020.Design, setting, and populationThis observational study evaluated the numbers of US deaths from any cause and deaths from pneumonia, influenza, and/or COVID-19 from March 1 through May 30, 2020, using public data of the entire US population from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). These numbers were compared with those from the same period of previous years. All data analyzed were accessed on June 12, 2020.Main outcomes and measuresIncreases in weekly deaths due to any cause or deaths due to pneumonia/influenza/COVID-19 above a baseline, which was adjusted for time of year, influenza activity, and reporting delays. These estimates were compared with reported deaths attributed to COVID-19 and with testing data.ResultsThere were approximately 781 000 total deaths in the United States from March 1 to May 30, 2020, representing 122 300 (95% prediction interval, 116 800-127 000) more deaths than would typically be expected at that time of year. There were 95 235 reported deaths officially attributed to COVID-19 from March 1 to May 30, 2020. The number of excess all-cause deaths was 28% higher than the official tally of COVID-19-reported deaths during that period. In several states, these deaths occurred before increases in the availability of COVID-19 diagnostic tests and were not counted in official COVID-19 death records. There was substantial variability between states in the difference between official COVID-19 deaths and the estimated burden of excess deaths.Conclusions and relevanceExcess deaths provide an estimate of the full COVID-19 burden and indicate that official tallies likely undercount deaths due to the virus. The mortality burden and the completeness of the tallies vary markedly between states.
| S-EPMC7330834 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn the United States, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths are captured through the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System and death certificates reported to the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS). However, not all COVID-19 deaths are recognized and reported because of limitations in testing, exacerbation of chronic health conditions that are listed as the cause of death, or delays in reporting. Estimating deaths may provide a more comprehensive understanding of total COVID-19-attributable deaths.MethodsWe estimated COVID-19 unrecognized attributable deaths, from March 2020-April 2021, using all-cause deaths reported to NVSS by week and six age groups (0-17, 18-49, 50-64, 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years) for 50 states, New York City, and the District of Columbia using a linear time series regression model. Reported COVID-19 deaths were subtracted from all-cause deaths before applying the model. Weekly expected deaths, assuming no SARS-CoV-2 circulation and predicted all-cause deaths using SARS-CoV-2 weekly percent positive as a covariate were modelled by age group and including state as a random intercept. COVID-19-attributable unrecognized deaths were calculated for each state and age group by subtracting the expected all-cause deaths from the predicted deaths.FindingsWe estimated that 766,611 deaths attributable to COVID-19 occurred in the United States from March 8, 2020-May 29, 2021. Of these, 184,477 (24%) deaths were not documented on death certificates. Eighty-two percent of unrecognized deaths were among persons aged ≥65 years; the proportion of unrecognized deaths were 0•24-0•31 times lower among those 0-17 years relative to all other age groups. More COVID-19-attributable deaths were not captured during the early months of the pandemic (March-May 2020) and during increases in SARS-CoV-2 activity (July 2020, November 2020-February 2021).InterpretationEstimating COVID-19-attributable unrecognized deaths provides a better understanding of the COVID-19 mortality burden and may better quantify the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic.FundingNone.
| S-EPMC8275579 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesThe COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted mental health, health-related behaviours such as drinking and illicit drug use and the accessibility of health and social care services. How these pandemic shocks affected 'despair'-related mortality in different countries is less clear. This study uses public data to compare deaths from alcohol, drugs and suicide in the United States and the United Kingdom to identify similarities or differences in the impact of the pandemic on important non-COVID causes of death across countries and to consider the public health implications of these trends.Study design and methodsData were taken from publicly available mortality figures for England and Wales, Northern Ireland, Scotland and the United States of America, 2001-2021, and analysed descriptively through age-standardised and age-specific mortality rates from suicide, alcohol and drug use.ResultsAlcohol-specific deaths increased in all countries between 2019 and 2021, most notably in the United States and, to a lesser extent, England and Wales. Suicide rates did not increase markedly during the pandemic in any of the included nations. Drug-related mortality rates rose dramatically over the same period in the United States but not in other nations.ConclusionsMortality from 'deaths of despair' during the pandemic has displayed divergent trends between causes and countries. Concerns about increases in deaths by suicide appear to have been unfounded, whereas deaths due to alcohol have risen across the United Kingdom and in the United States and across almost all age groups. Scotland and the United States had similarly high levels of drug-related deaths pre-pandemic, but the differing trends during the pandemic highlight the different underlying causes of these drug death epidemics and the importance of tailoring policy responses to these specific contexts.
| S-EPMC9968617 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimsCardiovascular diseases (CVDs) increase mortality risk from coronavirus infection (COVID-19). There are also concerns that the pandemic has affected supply and demand of acute cardiovascular care. We estimated excess mortality in specific CVDs, both 'direct', through infection, and 'indirect', through changes in healthcare.Methods and resultsWe used (i) national mortality data for England and Wales to investigate trends in non-COVID-19 and CVD excess deaths; (ii) routine data from hospitals in England (n = 2), Italy (n = 1), and China (n = 5) to assess indirect pandemic effects on referral, diagnosis, and treatment services for CVD; and (iii) population-based electronic health records from 3 862 012 individuals in England to investigate pre- and post-COVID-19 mortality for people with incident and prevalent CVD. We incorporated pre-COVID-19 risk (by age, sex, and comorbidities), estimated population COVID-19 prevalence, and estimated relative risk (RR) of mortality in those with CVD and COVID-19 compared with CVD and non-infected (RR: 1.2, 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0).Mortality data suggest indirect effects on CVD will be delayed rather than contemporaneous (peak RR 1.14). CVD service activity decreased by 60-100% compared with pre-pandemic levels in eight hospitals across China, Italy, and England. In China, activity remained below pre-COVID-19 levels for 2-3 months even after easing lockdown and is still reduced in Italy and England. For total CVD (incident and prevalent), at 10% COVID-19 prevalence, we estimated direct impact of 31 205 and 62 410 excess deaths in England (RR 1.5 and 2.0, respectively), and indirect effect of 49 932 to 99 865 deaths.ConclusionSupply and demand for CVD services have dramatically reduced across countries with potential for substantial, but avoidable, excess mortality during and after the pandemic.
| S-EPMC7928969 | biostudies-literature