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The disparate impact of age-based COVID-19 vaccine prioritization by race/ethnicity in Denver, Colorado.

ABSTRACT: COVID-19 vaccines are an effective tool in preventing severe disease. Most states used an age-based prioritization for vaccine rollout. We examined the impact of a primarily age-based prioritization policy on reductions of severe disease in different racial and ethnic groups. We calculated age-specific rates of COVID-19 hospitalization and death by race/ethnicity in Denver, Colorado. To assess potentially averted hospitalizations and deaths by race/ethnicity, we then applied the first three phases of Colorado's primarily age-based vaccine rollout criteria to historical 2020 COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in Denver, Colorado. In the first 3 phases, 40% (1403/3473) of hospitalizations and 83% (503/604) of deaths occurred among those meeting age and long-term care facility criteria and could have been averted. Impacts varied by race/ethnicity with only 28% (440/1587) of hospitalizations and 74% (131/178) of deaths averted among Hispanic or Latino residents, compared to 57% (619/1094) of hospitalizations and 92% (252/274) of deaths among non-Hispanic White residents. We demonstrate using local data and policy that early age-based prioritization decisions disproportionately promoted reductions in severe disease among non-Hispanic White residents irrespective of COVID-19 risk in Denver, Colorado. These findings suggest that more equitable future vaccine prioritization policies, which lead with a goal of reducing health disparities through prioritizing susceptibility to adverse health outcomes rather than overall population-based cutoffs, are necessary. Our results have implications for future vaccination rollouts in limited vaccine resource conditions.

SUBMITTER: Aiona K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9306219 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The disparate impact of age-based COVID-19 vaccine prioritization by race/ethnicity in Denver, Colorado.

Aiona Kaylynn K Bacon Emily E Podewils Laura J LJ Haas Michelle K MK

Health policy OPEN 20220722

COVID-19 vaccines are an effective tool in preventing severe disease. Most states used an age-based prioritization for vaccine rollout. We examined the impact of a primarily age-based prioritization policy on reductions of severe disease in different racial and ethnic groups. We calculated age-specific rates of COVID-19 hospitalization and death by race/ethnicity in Denver, Colorado. To assess potentially averted hospitalizations and deaths by race/ethnicity, we then applied the first three phas ...[more]

PMID: 35892113

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Project description:The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has been a major global health challenge since its emergence in 2019. Contrary to early predictions that sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) would bear a disproportionate share of the burden of COVID-19 due to the region's vulnerability to other infectious diseases, weak healthcare systems, and socioeconomic conditions, the pandemic's effects in SSA have been very mild in comparison to other regions. Interestingly, the number of cases, hospitalizations, and disease-induced deaths in SSA remain low, despite the loose implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and the low availability and administration of vaccines. Possible explanations for this low burden include epidemiological disparities, under-reporting (due to limited testing), climatic factors, population structure, and government policy initiatives. In this study, we formulate a model framework consisting of a basic model (in which only susceptible individuals are vaccinated), a vaccine-structured model, and a hybrid vaccine-age-structured model to assess the dynamics of COVID-19 in West Africa (WA). The framework is trained with a portion of the confirmed daily COVID-19 case data for 16 West African countries, validated with the remaining portion of the data, and used to (i) assess the effect of age structure on the incidence of COVID-19 in WA, (ii) evaluate the impact of vaccination and vaccine prioritization based on age brackets on the burden of COVID-19 in the sub-region, and (iii) explore plausible reasons for the low burden of COVID-19 in WA compared to other parts of the world. Calibration of the model parameters and global sensitivity analysis show that asymptomatic youths are the primary drivers of the pandemic in WA. Also, the basic and control reproduction numbers of the hybrid vaccine-age-structured model are smaller than those of the other two models indicating that the disease burden is overestimated in the models which do not account for age-structure. This result is confirmed through the vaccine-derived herd immunity thresholds. In particular, a comprehensive analysis of the basic (vaccine-structured) model reveals that if 84%(73%) of the West African populace is fully immunized with the vaccines authorized for use in WA, vaccine-derived herd immunity can be achieved. This herd immunity threshold is lower (68%) for the hybrid model. Also, all three thresholds are lower (60% for the basic model, 51% for the vaccine-structured model, and 48% for the hybrid model) if vaccines of higher efficacies (e.g., the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine) are prioritized, and higher if vaccines of lower efficacy are prioritized. Simulations of the models show that controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in WA (by reducing transmission) requires a proactive approach, including prioritizing vaccination of more youths or vaccination of more youths and elderly simultaneously. Moreover, complementing vaccination with a higher level of mask compliance will improve the prospects of containing the pandemic. Additionally, simulations of the model predict another COVID-19 wave (with a smaller peak size compared to the Omicron wave) by mid-July 2022. Furthermore, the emergence of a more transmissible variant or easing the existing measures that are effective in reducing transmission will result in more devastating COVID-19 waves in the future. To conclude, accounting for age-structure is important in understanding why the burden of COVID-19 has been low in WA and sustaining the current vaccination level, complemented with the WHO recommended NPIs is critical in curbing the spread of the disease in WA.

Project description:BackgroundThroughout US history, chronic and infectious diseases have severely impacted minority communities due to a lack of accessibility to quality healthcare and accurate information, as well as underlying racism. These fault lines in the care of minority communities in the US have been further exacerbated by the rise of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study examined the factors associated with COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy by race and ethnicity, particularly among African American and Latinx communities in Eastern Pennsylvania (PA).MethodsSurvey data was collected in July 2021 in Philadelphia, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, and Hazleton, PA. The 203 participants (38.7% Black, 27.5% Latinx) completed the 28-question survey of COVID-19 vaccination attitudes in either English or Spanish.ResultOut of the 203 participants, 181 participants met all the inclusion criteria, including completed surveys; of these participants, over three-fifths (63.5%) were acceptant of the COVID-19 vaccine whereas the remainder (36.5%) were hesitant. Binary logistic regression results showed that age, concern for vaccine efficacy, race, knowledge on the vaccine, and belief that the COVID-19 virus is serious significantly influenced COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. Minorities were more likely to be hesitant toward vaccination (OR: 2.8, 95% CI: 1.1, 6.8) than non-Hispanic whites. Those who believed the COVID-19 vaccine was ineffective (OR: 8.3, 95% CI: 3.8, 18.2), and that the virus is not serious (OR: 8.3, 95% CI: 1.1, 61.8) showed the greatest odds of hesitancy.ConclusionsMinority status, age less than 45 years, misinformation about seriousness of COVID-19 illness, and concern about vaccine efficacy were contributing factors of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. Therefore, understanding and addressing the barriers to COVID-19 vaccination in minority groups is essential to decreasing transmission and controlling this pandemic, and will provide lessons on how to implement public health measures in future pandemics.

Dataset Information

The disparate impact of age-based COVID-19 vaccine prioritization by race/ethnicity in Denver, Colorado.

Publications

The disparate impact of age-based COVID-19 vaccine prioritization by race/ethnicity in Denver, Colorado.

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