Dataset Information

Development and External Validation of a Preoperative Nomogram for Predicting Lateral Pelvic Lymph Node Metastasis in Patients With Advanced Lower Rectal Cancer.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The preoperative prediction of lateral pelvic lymph node (LPLN) metastasis is crucial in determining further treatment strategies for advanced lower rectal cancer patients. In this study, we established a nomogram model to preoperatively predict LPLN metastasis and then externally validated the accuracy of this model.

Methods

A total of 287 rectal cancer patients who underwent LPLN dissection were included in this study. Among them, 200 patients from the Peking University First Hospital were included in the development set, and 87 patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University were included in the independent external validation set. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was assessed based on its calibration, discrimination, and clinical utility.

Results

Five factors (differentiation grade, extramural vascular invasion, distance of the tumor from the anal verge, perirectal lymph node status, and largest short-axis diameter of LPLN) were identified and included in the nomogram. The nomogram developed based on the analysis showed robust discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.878 (95% CI, 0.824-0.932). The validation set showed good discrimination with an AUC of 0.863 (95% CI, 0.779-0.948). Decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram was clinically useful.

Conclusions

The present study proposed a clinical-imaging nomogram with a combination of clinicopathological risk factors and imaging features. After external verification, the predictive power of the nomogram model was satisfactory, and it is expected to be a convenient, visual, and personalized clinical tool for assessing the risk of LPLN metastasis in advanced lower rectal cancer patients.

SUBMITTER: Zhang L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9307891 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundLateral pelvic lymph node (LPN) metastasis causes increased lateral local recurrence and poor prognosis. We aimed to investigate the prognostic significance and effective range of dissection for the LPN dissection (LPND) in rectal cancer patients with LPN metastasis.Materials and methodsThrough this large, multicenter retrospective cohort study, we evaluated the therapeutic effect of LPND. From January 2012 to December 2019, 387 rectal cancer patients with clinical evidence of LPN metastasis who underwent total mesorectal excision with LPND were included in the study. According to pathological findings, they were divided into negative (n = 296) and positive (n = 91) LPN groups. Primary endpoints were 3-year overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), and local recurrence-free survival (LRFS).ResultsThe OS, RFS, and LRFS in the positive group were significantly worse than those in the negative group; However, LPN metastases were not independent prognostic risk factors for LRFS (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.42; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.77-7.64; P=0.132). Among patients with pathological LPN metastases, LPN metastases to the common and external iliac arteries were independent prognostic risk factors both for OS (HR: 4.74; 95% CI, 1.74-12.90; P=0.002) and RFS (HR: 2.70; 95% CI, 1.16-6.29; P=0.021). No significant difference was observed in the 3-year OS (72.3% vs. 70.2%, P=0.775) and RFS rates (60.9% vs. 52.6%, P=0.408) between patients with metastases to the obturator or internal iliac arteries and patients at N2b stage.ConclusionsLPND may be effective in controlling local recurrence in patients with LPN metastasis but not systemic metastases. Patients with LPN metastasis limited to the internal iliac and obturator regions achieve a long-term survival benefit from LPND, and their prognoses may be comparable to those at the N2b stage. Further metastasis to the external iliac or common iliac region should be considered systemic disease, and LPND should be avoided.Clinical trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov, identifier NCT04850027.