The effects of minimum unit pricing for alcohol on food purchases: Evaluation of a natural experiment.
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ABSTRACT: Background
On the 1st of May 2018 Scotland became the first country to introduce minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol sales. The objective of this study is to identify the effects of this policy instrument on food purchasing by evaluating a natural experiment.Methods
Longitudinal analysis compares regions with similar characteristics but differing exposure to MUP (Scotland and the north of England). Secondary data from the Kantar Worldpanel on itemised purchases between April 2017 and April 2019 provided a total sample of 8051 households. The outcomes analysed are weekly household expenditure (£s) and purchase volume (grams), both overall and disaggregated to 16 product categories.Results
Following the introduction of MUP, total household food expenditure in Scotland declined by 1.0%, 95%CI [-1.9%, -0.0%], and total food volume declined by 0.8%, 95%CI [-1.7%, 0.2%] compared to the north of England. There is variation in response between product categories, with less spending on fruit and vegetables and increased spending on crisps and snacks.Conclusion
Minimum unit pricing for alcohol has displaced some household food purchasing and the pattern of changes in food categories appears to be less desirable from a healthy diet perspective. However, changes caused by a minimum price at a nominal 50 pence per unit of alcohol are relatively small.
SUBMITTER: Kopasker D
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9310105 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:IntroductionScotland is the first country to carry out a national implementation of minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol. MUP aims to reduce alcohol-related harms, which are high in Scotland compared with Western Europe, and to improve health equalities. MUP is a minimum retail price per unit of alcohol. That approach targets high-risk alcohol users. This work is key to a wider evaluation that will determine whether MUP continues. There are three study components.Methods and analysisComponent 1 sampled an estimated 2800 interviewees at a baseline and each of two follow-ups from four Emergency Departments in Scotland and Northern England. Research nurses administered a standardised survey to assess alcohol consumption and the proportion of attendances that were alcohol-related.Component 2 covered six Sexual Health Clinics with similar timings and country allocation. A self-completion survey gathered information on potential unintended effects of MUP on alcohol source and drug use.Using a natural experiment design and repeated cross-sectional audit, difference between Scotland (intervention) and North England (control) will be tested for outcomes using regression adjusting for differences at baseline. Differential impacts by age, gender and socioeconomic position will be investigated.Component 3 used focus groups with young people and heavy drinkers and interviews with stakeholders before and after MUP implementation. The focus groups will allow exploration of attitudes, experiences and behaviours and the potential mechanisms by which impacts arise. The interviews will help characterise the implementation process.Ethics and disseminationStudy components 1 and 2 have been ethically approved by the NHS, and component 3 by the University of Stirling. Dissemination plans include peer-reviewed journal articles, presentations, policy maker briefings and, in view of high public interest and the high political profile of this flagship policy, communication with the public via media engagement and plain language summaries.Trial registration numberISRCTN16039407; Pre-results.
| S-EPMC6596978 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To assess the immediate impact of the introduction of minimum unit pricing in Scotland on household alcohol purchases. DESIGN:Controlled interrupted time series analysis. SETTING:Purchase data from Kantar Worldpanel's household shopping panel for 2015-18. PARTICIPANTS:5325 Scottish households, 54 807 English households as controls, and 10 040 households in northern England to control for potential cross border effects. INTERVENTIONS:Introduction of a minimum price of 50p (€0.55; $0.61) per UK unit (6.25p per gram) for the sale of alcohol in Scotland on 1 May 2018. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:Price per gram of alcohol, number of grams of alcohol purchased from off-trade by households, and weekly household expenditure on alcohol. RESULTS:The introduction of minimum unit pricing in Scotland was associated with an increase in purchase price of 0.64p per gram of alcohol (95% confidence interval 0.54 to 0.75), a reduction in weekly purchases of 9.5 g of alcohol per adult per household (5.1 to 13.9), and a non-significant increase in weekly expenditure on alcohol per household of 61p (-5 to 127). The increase in purchase price was higher in lower income households and in households that purchased the largest amount of alcohol. The reduction in purchased grams of alcohol was greater in lower income households and only occurred in the top fifth of households by income that purchased the greatest amount of alcohol, where the reduction was 15 g of alcohol per week (6 to 24). Changes in weekly expenditure were not systematically related to household income but increased with increasing household purchases. CONCLUSIONS:In terms of immediate impact, the introduction of minimum unit pricing appears to have been successful in reducing the amount of alcohol purchased by households in Scotland. The action was targeted, in that reductions of purchased alcohol only occurred in the households that bought the most alcohol.
| S-EPMC6759563 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSeveral countries are considering a minimum price policy for alcohol, but concerns exist about the potential effects on drinkers with low incomes. We aimed to assess the effect of a £0·45 minimum unit price (1 unit is 8 g/10 mL ethanol) in England across the income and socioeconomic distributions.MethodsWe used the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model (SAPM) version 2.6, a causal, deterministic, epidemiological model, to assess effects of a minimum unit price policy. SAPM accounts for alcohol purchasing and consumption preferences for population subgroups including income and socioeconomic groups. Purchasing preferences are regarded as the types and volumes of alcohol beverages, prices paid, and the balance between on-trade (eg, bars) and off-trade (eg, shops). We estimated price elasticities from 9 years of survey data and did sensitivity analyses with alternative elasticities. We assessed effects of the policy on moderate, hazardous, and harmful drinkers, split into three socioeconomic groups (living in routine or manual households, intermediate households, and managerial or professional households). We examined policy effects on alcohol consumption, spending, rates of alcohol-related health harm, and opportunity costs associated with that harm. Rates of harm and costs were estimated for a 10 year period after policy implementation. We adjusted baseline rates of mortality and morbidity to account for differential risk between socioeconomic groups.FindingsOverall, a minimum unit price of £0.45 led to an immediate reduction in consumption of 1.6% (-11.7 units per drinker per year) in our model. Moderate drinkers were least affected in terms of consumption (-3.8 units per drinker per year for the lowest income quintile vs 0.8 units increase for the highest income quintile) and spending (increase in spending of £0.04 vs £1.86 per year). The greatest behavioural changes occurred in harmful drinkers (change in consumption of -3.7% or -138.2 units per drinker per year, with a decrease in spending of £4.01), especially in the lowest income quintile (-7.6% or -299.8 units per drinker per year, with a decrease in spending of £34.63) compared with the highest income quintile (-1.0% or -34.3 units, with an increase in spending of £16.35). Estimated health benefits from the policy were also unequally distributed. Individuals in the lowest socioeconomic group (living in routine or manual worker households and comprising 41.7% of the sample population) would accrue 81.8% of reductions in premature deaths and 87.1% of gains in terms of quality-adjusted life-years.InterpretationIrrespective of income, moderate drinkers were little affected by a minimum unit price of £0.45 in our model, with the greatest effects noted for harmful drinkers. Because harmful drinkers on low incomes purchase more alcohol at less than the minimum unit price threshold compared with other groups, they would be affected most by this policy. Large reductions in consumption in this group would however coincide with substantial health gains in terms of morbidity and mortality related to reduced alcohol consumption.FundingUK Medical Research Council and Economic and Social Research Council (grant G1000043).
| S-EPMC4018486 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo determine the impact of minimum unit pricing (MUP) on the primary outcome of alcohol-related hospitalisation, and secondary outcomes of length of stay, hospital mortality and alcohol-related liver disease in hospital.DesignDatabases MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, APA Psycinfo, CINAHL Plus and Cochrane Reviews were searched from 1 January 2011 to 11 November 2022. Inclusion criteria were studies evaluating the impact of minimum pricing policies, and we excluded non-minimum pricing policies or studies without alcohol-related hospital outcomes. The Effective Public Health Practice Project tool was used to assess risk of bias, and the Bradford Hill Criteria were used to infer causality for outcome measures.SettingMUP sets a legally required floor price per unit of alcohol and is estimated to reduce alcohol-attributable healthcare burden.ParticipantAll studies meeting inclusion criteria from any country INTERVENTION: Minimum pricing policy of alcohol PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: RESULTS: 22 studies met inclusion criteria; 6 natural experiments and 16 modelling studies. Countries included Australia, Canada, England, Northern Ireland, Ireland, Scotland, South Africa and Wales. Modelling studies estimated that MUP could reduce alcohol-related admissions by 3%-10% annually and the majority of real-world studies demonstrated that acute alcohol-related admissions responded immediately and reduced by 2%-9%, and chronic alcohol-related admissions lagged by 2-3 years and reduced by 4%-9% annually. Minimum pricing could target the heaviest consumers from the most deprived groups who tend to be at greatest risk of alcohol harms, and in so doing has the potential to reduce health inequalities. Using the Bradford Hill Criteria, we inferred a 'moderate-to-strong' causal link that MUP could reduce alcohol-related hospitalisation.ConclusionsNatural studies were consistent with minimum pricing modelling studies and showed that this policy could reduce alcohol-related hospitalisation and health inequalities.Prospero registration numberCRD42021274023.
| S-EPMC9900069 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo quantify the potential impact of minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol on alcohol consumption, spending and health in South Africa. We provide these estimates disaggregated by different drinker groups and wealth quintiles.DesignWe developed an epidemiological policy appraisal model to estimate the effects of MUP across sex, drinker groups (moderate, occasional binge, heavy) and wealth quintiles. Stakeholder interviews and workshops informed model development and ensured policy relevance.SettingSouth African drinking population aged 15+.ParticipantsThe population (aged 15+) of South Africa in 2018 stratified by drinking group and wealth quintiles, with a model time horizon of 20 years.Main outcome measuresChange in standard drinks (SDs) (12 g of ethanol) consumed, weekly spend on alcohol, annual number of cases and deaths for five alcohol-related health conditions (HIV, intentional injury, road injury, liver cirrhosis and breast cancer), reported by drinker groups and wealth quintile.ResultsWe estimate an MUP of R10 per SD would lead to an immediate reduction in consumption of 4.40% (-0.93 SD/week) and an increase in spend of 18.09%. The absolute reduction is greatest for heavy drinkers (-1.48 SD/week), followed by occasional binge drinkers (-0.41 SD/week) and moderate drinkers (-0.40 SD/week). Over 20 years, we estimate 20 585 fewer deaths and 9 00 332 cases averted across the five health-modelled harms.Poorer drinkers would see greater impacts from the policy (consumption: -7.75% in the poorest quintile, -3.19% in richest quintile). Among the heavy drinkers, 85% of the cases averted and 86% of the lives saved accrue to the bottom three wealth quintiles.ConclusionsWe estimate that MUP would reduce alcohol consumption in South Africa, improving health outcomes while raising retail and tax revenue. Consumption and harm reductions would be greater in poorer groups.
| S-EPMC8354280 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and aimsWithin the context of Scotland's policy change to implement a minimum unit price (MUP) per unit of alcohol sold in licensed premises, this study used an N-of-1 design to assess between-person differences in the psychological and social factors associated with daily alcohol consumption.Design and settingA mixed-methods approach combined N-of-1 observational studies, comprising daily surveys followed by qualitative social network interviews (not reported here). Peer researchers with lived experience of substance use were involved in the study design and fieldwork was conducted in towns and rural areas in the East of Scotland.Participants/casesTwenty-five adults with current or recent history of alcohol dependence recruited for three 12-week waves: 11 in wave 1 (pre-MUP), 11 in wave 2 (pre- and post-MUP) and three in wave 3 (post MUP).MeasurementsGender, age, alcohol and other drug use history. Daily surveys for 12 weeks captured information about factors in the last 24 hours, e.g. amount and type of alcohol consumed, stress, social contact.FindingsEach participant was in the daily survey for a mean of 64 days [standard deviation (SD) = 42; median = 59], with a response rate of 48%; 15 participants provided sufficient data for analysis. Factors related to daily alcohol consumption differed between individuals. Models suggested that some individuals with high initial consumption reduced drinking after MUP, but explanatory factors differed, e.g. changing motivation was important for some, while alcohol availability was important for others.ConclusionsAdapting N-of-1 methods for an observational study uncovered differences in alcohol consumption change before and after minimum unit pricing implementation in Scotland, evidence of individual differences in the factors relating to alcohol consumption patterns and some evidence that post-MUP consumption changes may be related to changing psychosocial factors.
| S-EPMC8248017 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Recent literature shows that many testing procedures used to evaluate asset pricing models result in spurious rejection probabilities. Model misspecification, the strong factor structure of test assets, or skewed test statistics largely explain this. In this paper we use the relative entropy of pricing kernels to provide an alternative framework for testing asset pricing models. Building on the fact that the law of one price guarantees the existence of a valid pricing kernel, we study the relationship between the mean-variance efficiency of a model's factor-mimicking portfolio, as measured by the cross-sectional generalized least squares (GLS) R 2 statistic, and the relative entropy of the pricing kernel, as determined by the Kullback-Leibler divergence. In this regard, we suggest an entropy-based decomposition that accurately captures the divergence between the factor-mimicking portfolio and the minimum-variance pricing kernel resulting from the Hansen-Jagannathan bound. Our results show that, although GLS R 2 statistics and relative entropy are strongly correlated, the relative entropy approach allows us to explicitly decompose the explanatory power of the model into two components, namely, the relative entropy of the pricing kernel and that corresponding to its correlation with asset returns. This makes the relative entropy a versatile tool for designing robust tests in asset pricing.
| S-EPMC7517259 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMass media influence public acceptability, and hence feasibility, of public health interventions. This study investigates newsprint constructions of the alcohol problem and minimum unit pricing (MUP).MethodsQuantitative content analysis of 901 articles about MUP published in 10 UK and Scottish newspapers between 2005 and 2012.ResultsMUP was a high-profile issue, particularly in Scottish publications. Reporting increased steadily between 2008 and 2012, matching the growing status of the debate. The alcohol problem was widely acknowledged, often associated with youths, and portrayed as driven by cheap alcohol, supermarkets and drinking culture. Over-consumption was presented as a threat to health and social order. Appraisals of MUP were neutral, with supportiveness increasing slightly over time. Arguments focused on health impacts more frequently than more emotive perspectives or business interests. Health charities and the NHS were cited slightly more frequently than alcohol industry representatives.ConclusionEmphases on efficacy, evidence and experts are positive signs for evidence-based policymaking. The high profile of MUP, along with growing support within articles, could reflect growing appetite for action on the alcohol problem. Representations of the problem as structurally driven might engender support for legislative solutions, although cultural explanations remain common.
| S-EPMC4340327 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and aimsMinimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol was introduced in Scotland on 1 May 2018, and is now on the policy agenda in other devolved administrations and at Westminster. Previous research has explored the arguments deployed for and against MUP, but the congruence between actors in the MUP debate has not been sufficiently examined. This study identified and mapped the discourse coalitions that emerged in the UK MUP debate through an analysis of actors' use of arguments in media coverage of the policy debates.DesignA sample of print media coverage of MUP was obtained from the LexisNexis newspaper database. The resulting sample was imported into discourse network analysis (DNA) software for coding and subsequent visualization of actor networks.SettingUnited Kingdom.ObservationsA total of 348 articles from eight UK-wide and three Scottish newspapers from an 18-month period, ending in November 2012, were analysed.MeasurementsActors' arguments were coded to generate structured data for conversion into a weighted actor network where ties represent similarities among actors in terms of arguments in support of or opposition to MUP.FindingsTwo polarized discourse coalitions, Opponents and Proponents of MUP, emerged in media coverage. The Proponents coalition consisted mainly of health advocacy groups, charities, political parties and academic institutions. In the Opponents coalition, the networks were formed of key alcohol manufacturers and economic think-tanks. While producer organizations were central to the Opponents coalition, some commercial actors were more favourable to MUP, highlighting divisions within the industry overall.ConclusionsMedia coverage of minimum unit pricing (MUP) in Scotland from June 2011 to November 2012 showed alignment between the policy positions of (1) alcohol producers and think-tanks opposed to MUP; and (2) public health advocates and health charities in favour of the policy. Some alcohol industry actors were supportive of MUP indicating divisions among the industry. Discourse network analysis may be usefully applied to study other highly contested policy issues in health and beyond.
| S-EPMC6492293 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo evaluate the potential impact of two alcohol control policies under consideration in England: banning below cost selling of alcohol and minimum unit pricing.DesignModelling study using the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 2.5.SettingEngland 2014-15.PopulationAdults and young people aged 16 or more, including subgroups of moderate, hazardous, and harmful drinkers.InterventionsPolicy to ban below cost selling, which means that the selling price to consumers could not be lower than tax payable on the product, compared with policies of minimum unit pricing at £0.40 (€0.57; $0.75), 45 p, and 50 p per unit (7.9 g/10 mL) of pure alcohol.Main outcome measuresChanges in mean consumption in terms of units of alcohol, drinkers' expenditure, and reductions in deaths, illnesses, admissions to hospital, and quality adjusted life years.ResultsThe proportion of the market affected is a key driver of impact, with just 0.7% of all units estimated to be sold below the duty plus value added tax threshold implied by a ban on below cost selling, compared with 23.2% of units for a 45 p minimum unit price. Below cost selling is estimated to reduce harmful drinkers' mean annual consumption by just 0.08%, around 3 units per year, compared with 3.7% or 137 units per year for a 45 p minimum unit price (an approximately 45 times greater effect). The ban on below cost selling has a small effect on population health-saving an estimated 14 deaths and 500 admissions to hospital per annum. In contrast, a 45 p minimum unit price is estimated to save 624 deaths and 23,700 hospital admissions. Most of the harm reductions (for example, 89% of estimated deaths saved per annum) are estimated to occur in the 5.3% of people who are harmful drinkers.ConclusionsThe ban on below cost selling, implemented in the England in May 2014, is estimated to have small effects on consumption and health harm. The previously announced policy of a minimum unit price, if set at expected levels between 40 p and 50 p per unit, is estimated to have an approximately 40-50 times greater effect.
| S-EPMC4180296 | biostudies-literature