Relationship between COVID-19 Mortality, Hospital Beds, and Primary Care by Italian Regions: A Lesson for the Future.
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SUBMITTER: Ferrara N
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9315865 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:a number of studies highlighted increased mortality associated with hospital admissions during weekends and holidays, the so-call "weekend effect". In this retrospective study of mortality in an acute care public hospital in Italy between 2009 and 2015, we compared inpatient mortality before and after a major organizational change in 2012. The new model (Model 2) implied that the intensivist was available on call from outside the hospital during nighttime, weekends, and holidays. The previous model (Model 1) ensured the presence of the intensivist coordinating a Medical Emergency Team (MET) inside the hospital 24 h a day, 7 days a week. life status at discharge after 9298 and 8223 hospital admissions that occurred during two consecutive periods of 1185 days each (organizational Model 1 and 2), respectively, were classified into "discharged alive", "deceased during nighttime-weekends-holidays" and "deceased during daytime-weekdays". We estimated Relative Risk Ratios (RRR) for the associations between the organizational model and life status at discharge using multinomial logistic regression models adjusted for demographic and case-mix indicators, and timing of admission (nighttime-weekends-holidays vs. daytime-weekdays). there were 802 and 840 deaths under Models 1 and 2, respectively. Total mortality was higher for hospital admissions under Model 2 compared to Model 1. Model 2 was associated with a significantly higher risk of death during nighttime-weekends-holidays (IRR: 1.38, 95% CI 1.20-1.59) compared to daytime-weekdays (RRR: 1.12, 95% CI 0.97-1.31) (p = 0.04). Respiratory diagnoses, in particular, acute and chronic respiratory failure (ICD 9 codes 510-519) were the leading causes of the mortality excess under Model 2. our data suggest that the immediate availability of an intensivist coordinating a MET 24 h, 7 days a week can result in a better prognosis of in-hospital emergencies compared to delayed consultation.
| S-EPMC8776160 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC1471911 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThis paper describes a model for estimating COVID-19 related excess deaths that are a direct consequence of insufficient hospital ward bed and intensive care unit (ICU) capacity.MethodsCompartmental models were used to estimate deaths under different combinations of ICU and ward care required and received in England up to late April 2021. Model parameters were sourced from publicly available government information and organisations collating COVID-19 data. A sub-model was used to estimate the mortality scalars that represent increased mortality due to insufficient ICU or general ward bed capacity. Three illustrative scenarios for admissions numbers, 'Optimistic', 'Middling' and 'Pessimistic', were modelled and compared with the subsequent observations to the 3rd February.ResultsThe key output was the demand and capacity model described. There were no excess deaths from a lack of capacity in the 'Optimistic' scenario. Several of the 'Middling' scenario applications resulted in excess deaths-up to 597 deaths (0.6% increase) with a 20% reduction compared to best estimate ICU capacity. All the 'Pessimistic' scenario applications resulted in excess deaths, ranging from 49,178 (17.0% increase) for a 20% increase in ward bed availability, to 103,735 (35.8% increase) for a 20% shortfall in ward bed availability. These scenarios took no account of the emergence of the new, more transmissible, variant of concern (b.1.1.7).ConclusionsMortality is increased when hospital demand exceeds available capacity. No excess deaths from breaching capacity would be expected under the 'Optimistic' scenario. The 'Middling' scenario could result in some excess deaths-up to a 0.7% increase relative to the total number of deaths. The 'Pessimistic' scenario would have resulted in significant excess deaths. Our sensitivity analysis indicated a range between 49,178 (17% increase) and 103,735 (35.8% increase). Given the new variant, the pessimistic scenario appeared increasingly likely and could have resulted in a substantial increase in the number of COVID-19 deaths. In the event, it would appear that capacity was not breached at any stage at a national level with no excess deaths. it will remain unclear if minor local capacity breaches resulted in any small number of excess deaths.
| S-EPMC8076441 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionElectrophysiological diagnosis of chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy (CIDP) may be challenging. Thus, with the aim ofproviding some practical advice in electrophysiological approach to a patient with suspected CIDP, we analyzed electrophysiological data from 499 patients enrolled inthe Italian CIDP Database.MethodsWe calculated the rate of each demyelinating feature, the rate of demyelinating features per nerve, the diagnostic rate for upper andlower limb nerves, and, using a ROC curve analysis, the diagnostic accuracy of each couple of nerves and each demyelinating feature, for every CIDP subtype.Moreover, we compared the electrophysiological data of definite and probable CIDP patients with those of possible and not-fulfilling CIDP patients, and by a logisticregression analysis, we estimated the odds ratio (OR) to make an electrophysiological diagnosis of definite or probable CIDP.ResultsThe ulnar nerve had the highestrate of demyelinating features and, when tested bilaterally, had the highest diagnostic accuracy except for DADS in which peroneal nerves were the most informative.In possible and not-fulfilling CIDP patients, a lower number of nerves and proximal temporal dispersion (TD) measurements had been performed compared to definiteand probable CIDP patients. Importantly, OR for each tested motor nerve and each TD measurement was 1.59 and 1.33, respectively.ConclusionOur findingsdemonstrated that the diagnosis of CIDP may be missed due to inadequate or incomplete electrophysiological examination or interpretation. At the same time, thesedata taken together could be useful to draw a thoughtful electrophysiological approach to patients suspected of CIDP.
| S-EPMC8724146 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimLong-term-care facility residents are a vulnerable population who experienced reduced healthcare access during the pandemic. This study aimed to assess the indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, in terms of hospitalisation and mortality rates, among this population in two Italian Regions, Tuscany and Apulia, during 2020 in comparison with the pre-pandemic period.Subject and methodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study on people residing in long-term-care facilities from 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2020 (baseline period: 1 January 2018-8 March 2020; pandemic period: and 9 March-31 December 2020). Hospitalisation rates were stratified by sex and major disease groups. Standardised weekly rates were estimated with a Poisson regression model. Only for Tuscany, mortality risk at 30 days after hospitalisation was calculated with the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Mortality risk ratios were calculated using Cox proportional regression models.ResultsNineteen thousand two hundred and fifty individuals spent at least 7 days in a long-term-care facility during the study period. The overall mean non-Covid hospital admission rate per 100 000 residents/week was 144.1 and 116.2 during the baseline and pandemic periods, with a decrease to 99.7 and 77.3 during the first (March-May) and second lockdown (November-December). Hospitalisation rates decreased for all major disease groups. Thirty-day mortality risk ratios for non-Covid conditions increased during the pandemic period (1.2, 1.1 to 1.4) compared with baseline.ConclusionThe pandemic resulted in worse non-COVID-related health outcomes for long-term-care facilities' residents. There is a need to prioritise these facilities in national pandemic preparedness plans and to ensure their full integration in national surveillance systems.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10389-023-01925-1.
| S-EPMC10185456 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Non-commercial chickens may be the third most numerous pets in Western countries. Yet, to date, there is limited research into their welfare or the care-taking practices and attitudes of their guardians. Using a quantitative questionnaire, this study investigated non-commercial chicken owners' care-taking practices, attitudes, and relationship types with their chickens. Additionally, the study investigated barriers to optimizing non-commercial chicken welfare. Specific questions were asked regarding niche care-taking practices, including the use of Suprelorin® implants. With 2000+ responses, this study found variable care-taking practices, yet largely positive attitudes towards chickens, and a "personal" (though not "close personal") owner-chicken relationship, as defined by the Owner-Bird Relationship Scale. The Chicken Attitude Scale, Owner-Bird Relationship Scale, and Care Series scores were found to be correlated with each other, with coefficients ranging from 0.176 to 0.543 (p < 0.001). "Preventing commercial chickens from going to slaughter" was a key motive for chicken care by 56.1% of respondents, with 69.6% of respondents stating they cared for ex-commercial chickens. This study found a higher prevalence of reported poor health conditions and number of deaths relative to prior studies, and egg yolk peritonitis emerged as a leading health condition and cause of death. Moreover, 68.0% had not heard of Suprelorin® implants, and only 6.3% used implants. Most (76.4%) chicken carers followed an omnivorous diet that includes chicken meat/eggs. The results reinforced previous findings concerning a need for more avian-specialist, locally available, and affordable veterinary care for chickens. Research into Suprelorin® implants, rooster-specific care, and tailored requirements of caring for ex-commercial chickens is recommended.
| S-EPMC10812673 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background During COVID-19 outbreak, Italy was the first country in Europe to be heavily affected with an intensive care unit mortality of 26%. In order to reduce this percentage, physicians should establish clear and objective criteria to stratify COVID-19 patients at high risk of in-hospital death. Thus, the aim has been to test a large spectrum of variables ranging from clinical evaluation to laboratory biomarkers to identify which parameter would best predict all-cause in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients. Design observational study. Results Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that each 5 years of increase in age corresponded to a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.28 (95% CI 1.00-1.65, P = .050); each increment of 803 ng/L of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) corresponded to a HR of 1.24 (95% CI 1.11-1.39, P < .001); each increment of 58 ng/L of interleukin (IL)-6 corresponded to a HR of 1.23 (95% CI 1.09-1.40, P < .001), and each increment of 250 U/L of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) corresponded to a HR of 1.23 (95% CI 1.10-1.37, P < .001). According to the calculated cut-points for age (≥70 years), NT-proBNP (≥803 ng/L), IL-6 (≥58 ng/L) and LDH (≥371 U/L) when 2 out of these 4 were overcome, the HR was 2.96 (95% CI 1.97-4.45, P < .001). Conclusion In COVID-19 patients, besides age, the evaluation of three biochemical parameters, available in few hours after hospital admission can predict in-hospital mortality regardless of other comorbidities.
| S-EPMC8420178 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMortality amenable to health-care services ('amenable mortality') has been defined as "premature deaths that should not occur in the presence of timely and effective health care" and as "conditions for which effective clinical interventions exist." We analyzed the regional variability in health-care services using amenable mortality as a performance indicator. Convergent validity was examined against other indicators, such as health expenditure, GDP per capita, life expectancy at birth, disability-free life expectancy at age 15, number of diagnostic and laboratory tests per 1,000 inhabitants, and the prevalence of cancer and cardiovascular diseases.MethodsAmenable mortality rate was calculated as the average annual number of deaths in the population aged 0-74 years per 100,000 inhabitants, and it was then stratified by gender and region. Data were drawn from national mortality statistics for the period 2006-08.ResultsDuring the study period (2006-08), the age-standardized death rate (SDR) amenable to health-care services in Italy was 62.6 per 100,000 inhabitants: 66.0 per 100,000 for males and 59.1 per 100,000 for females. Significant regional variations ranged from 54.1 per 100,000 inhabitants in Alto Adige to 76.3 per 100,000 in Campania. Regional variability in SDR was examined separately for male and females. The variability proved to be statistically significant for both males and females (males: Q-test = 638.5, p < 0.001; females: Q-test = 700.1, p < 0.001). However, among men, we found a clear-cut divide in SDR values between Central and Southern Italy; among women, this divide was less pronounced. Amenable mortality was negatively correlated with life expectancy at birth for both genders (male: r = -0.64, p = 0.002; female: r = -0.88, p <0.001) and with disability-free life expectancy at age 15 (male: r = -0.70, p <0.001; female: r = -0.67, p <0.001). Amenable mortality displayed a statistically significant negative relationship with GDP per capita, the quantity of diagnostic and laboratory tests per 1,000 inhabitants, and the prevalence of cancer.ConclusionsAmenable mortality shows a wide variation across Italian regions and an inverse relationship with life expectancy and GDP per capita, as expected.
| S-EPMC3506466 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC9347586 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Prospective, population-based studies that recruit participants in mid-life are valuable resources for dementia research. Follow-up in these studies is often through linkage to routinely-collected healthcare datasets. We investigated the accuracy of these datasets for dementia case ascertainment in a validation study using data from UK Biobank-an open access, population-based study of > 500,000 adults aged 40-69 years at recruitment in 2006-2010. From 17,198 UK Biobank participants recruited in Edinburgh, we identified those with ≥ 1 dementia code in their linked primary care, hospital admissions or mortality data and compared their coded diagnoses to clinical expert adjudication of their full-text medical record. We calculated the positive predictive value (PPV, the proportion of cases identified that were true positives) for all-cause dementia, Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia for each dataset alone and in combination, and explored algorithmic code combinations to improve PPV. Among 120 participants, PPVs for all-cause dementia were 86.8%, 87.3% and 80.0% for primary care, hospital admissions and mortality data respectively and 82.5% across all datasets. We identified three algorithms that balanced a high PPV with reasonable case ascertainment. For Alzheimer's disease, PPVs were 74.1% for primary care, 68.2% for hospital admissions, 50.0% for mortality data and 71.4% in combination. PPV for vascular dementia was 43.8% across all sources. UK routinely-collected healthcare data can be used to identify all-cause dementia in prospective studies. PPVs for Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia are lower. Further research is required to explore the geographic generalisability of these findings.
| S-EPMC6497624 | biostudies-literature