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Trends in Varicella Burden of Disease Following Introduction of Routine Childhood Varicella Vaccination in Argentina: A 12-Year Time Series Analysis.

ABSTRACT: One-dose universal varicella vaccination (UVV) was introduced in the Argentinian National Immunization Program in July 2015. This study examined the impact of one-dose UVV on varicella incidence and mortality in Argentina. Incidence and mortality data were obtained from official databases for pre-UVV (January 2008-June 2015) and post-UVV (July 2015-December 2019) periods. Time series analyses with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling predicted varicella incidence and mortality in absence of UVV in the target (aged 1-4 years) and overall population. Predicted and observed values post-UVV were compared to estimate UVV impact. Mean annual incidence rates per 100,000 reduced from 1999 (pre-UVV) to 1122 (post-UVV) in the target population and from 178 to 154 in the overall population. Significant declines in incidence were observed, reaching reductions of 83.9% (95% prediction interval [PI]: 58.9, 90.0) and 69.1% (95% PI: 23.6, 80.7) in the target and overall populations, respectively, during peak months (September-November) post-UVV. Decreasing trends in mortality rate from 0.4 to 0.2 per 1,000,000 population were observed. Over the last four years, one-dose UVV has significantly reduced varicella burden of disease in Argentina. Continuous efforts to improve vaccination coverage rates and long-term follow-up are needed to better understand the benefits of the UVV program.

SUBMITTER: Giglio N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9317722 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Varicella is generally considered a mild disease. Disease burden is not well known and country-level estimation is challenging. As varicella disease is not notifiable, notification criteria and rates vary between countries. In general, existing surveillance systems do not capture cases that do not seek medical care, and most are affected by underreporting and underascertainment. We aimed to estimate the overall varicella disease burden in Europe to provide critical information to support decision-making regarding varicella vaccination.We conducted a systematic literature review to identify all available epidemiological data on varicella IgG antibody seroprevalence, primary care and hospitalisation incidence, and mortality. We then developed methods to estimate age-specific varicella incidence and annual number of cases by different levels of severity (cases in the community, health care seekers in primary care and hospitals, and deaths) for all countries belonging to the European Medicines Agency (EMA) region and Switzerland.In the absence of universal varicella immunization, the burden of varicella would be substantial with a total of 5.5 million (95% CI: 4.7-6.4) varicella cases occurring annually across Europe. Variation exists between countries but overall the majority of cases (3 million; 95% CI: 2.7-3.3) would occur in children <5 years. Annually, 3-3.9 million patients would consult a primary care physician, 18,200-23,500 patients would be hospitalised, and 80 varicella-related deaths would occur (95% CI: 19-822).Varicella disease burden is substantial. Most cases occur in children <5 years old but adults require hospitalisation more often and are at higher risk of death. This information should be considered when planning and evaluating varicella control strategies. A better understanding of the driving factors of country-specific differences in varicella transmission and health care utilization is needed. Improving and standardizing varicella surveillance in Europe, as initiated by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), is important to improve data quality to facilitate inter-country comparison.

Project description:BackgroundThough the disease burden of varicella in Europe has been reported previously, the economic burden is still unknown. This study estimated the economic burden of varicella in Europe in the absence of Universal Varicella Vaccination (UVV) in 2018 Euros from both payer (direct costs) and societal (direct and indirect costs) perspectives.MethodsWe estimated the country specific and overall annual costs of varicella in absence of UVV in 31 European countries (27 EU countries, plus Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the United Kingdom). To obtain country specific unit costs and associated healthcare utilization, we conducted a systematic literature review, searching in PubMed, EMBASE, NEED, DARE, REPEC, Open Grey, and public heath websites (1/1/1999-10/15/2019). The number of annual varicella cases, deaths, outpatient visits and hospitalizations were calculated (without UVV) based on age-specific incidence rates (Riera-Montes et al. 2017) and 2018 population data by country. Unit cost per varicella case and disease burden data were combined using stochastic modeling to estimate 2018 costs stratified by country, age and healthcare resource.ResultsOverall annual total costs associated with varicella were estimated to be €662,592,061 (Range: €309,552,363 to €1,015,631,760) in Europe in absence of UVV. Direct and indirect costs were estimated at €229,076,206 (Range €144,809,557 to €313,342,856) and €433,515,855 (Range €164,742,806 to €702,288,904), respectively. Total cost per case was €121.45 (direct: €41.99; indirect: €79.46). Almost half of the costs were attributed to cases in children under 5 years, owing mainly to caregiver work loss. The distribution of costs by healthcare resource was similar across countries. France and Germany accounted for 49.28% of total annual costs, most likely due to a combination of high numbers of cases and unit costs in these countries.ConclusionsThe economic burden of varicella across Europe in the absence of UVV is substantial (over 600 M€), primarily driven by caregiver burden including work productivity losses.

Project description:BackgroundUniversal varicella vaccination (UVV) for children introduced in Germany in 2004 resulted in a significant overall decline of varicella-related hospitalizations (VRHs). We investigated the incidence of specific types of varicella-related complications (VRCs) in hospitalized children and the impact of UVV on VRCs during the first 7 years of UVV.MethodsChildren < 17 years of age hospitalized with an ICD-10-based (International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision) discharge diagnosis of varicella were identified as VRH in pediatric hospitals in Bavaria by annual standardized data queries of the hospital databases (2005-2011). For each VRH, the hospitals reported basic demographic data, duration of hospital stay, all diagnostic and procedural codes, and outcome. VRCs were reported overall, per year, and by immune status. Complication rates were calculated as mean number per complication category per hospital and per year; VRC trends over time were assessed by linear regression.ResultsBetween 78% (2005) and 61% (2011) of Bavarian hospitals participated and reported a total of 1263 VRHs. Specific VRCs were reported in 954 (76%) children. Complication rates per hospital and year decreased from 6.7 [95% confidence interval (CI): 5.1-8.3] in 2005 to 1.5 (95% CI: 0.8-2.3) in 2011, with the strongest reduction of 90% in children < 5 years of age from 5.3 (95% CI: 4.0-6.6) in 2005 to 0.5 (95% CI: 0.1-0.9) in 2011. Significant decreases were observed for children with upper respiratory tract (URT, by 97%), lower respiratory tract (LRT, by 90%), skin (by 81%), gastrointestinal (by 78%), and neurologic (by 65%) VRCs. Forty-eight children with VRCs were immunocompromised; their annual rate decreased by 87%.DiscussionCorresponding to increasing varicella vaccination coverage in the population, the incidence of VRC decreased by 77% from 2005 to 2011, with the most substantial decrease in the target group for UVV.ConclusionWithin 7 years, UVV in Germany led to a decrease of about 77% of all types of VRCs, with the highest reductions observed for VRCs of the respiratory tract.

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Trends in Varicella Burden of Disease Following Introduction of Routine Childhood Varicella Vaccination in Argentina: A 12-Year Time Series Analysis.

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