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Predictive Models of within- and between-Species SARS-CoV-2 Transmissibility.

ABSTRACT: Viruses from the Coronaviridae family have been reported to infect a large range of hosts, including humans. The latest human-infecting coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, turned into a pandemic and subtypes with different transmissibility have appeared since then. The SARS-CoV-2 Spike (S) protein interacts with the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) host receptor, and thus, in silico models, based on the structural features of the SARS-CoV-2 S protein-ACE2 receptor complex, as well as ACE2 amino acid patterns, may be used to predict the within- and between-species transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 subtypes. Here, it is shown that at the beginning of the pandemic, the SARS-CoV-2 S protein was, as expected for a virus that just jumped the species barrier, ill-adapted to the human ACE2 receptor, and that the replacement of one SARS-CoV-2 variant by another is partially due to a better fitting of the S protein-human ACE2 complex. Moreover, it is shown that mutations that are predicted to lead to a better fit have increased in the population due to positive selection. It is also shown that the number of ACE2-interfacing residues is positively correlated with the transmissibility rate of SARS-CoV-2 variants. Finally, it is shown that the number of species that are susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2, and that could be a reservoir for this virus, is likely higher than previously thought.

SUBMITTER: Soares R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9318986 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundAfter a rapid upsurge of COVID-19 cases in Italy during the fall of 2020, the government introduced a three-tiered restriction system aimed at increasing physical distancing. The Ministry of Health, after periodic epidemiological risk assessments, assigned a tier to each of the 21 Italian regions and autonomous provinces. It is still unclear to what extent these different sets of measures altered the number of daily interactions and the social mixing patterns.Methods and findingsWe conducted a survey between July 2020 and March 2021 to monitor changes in social contact patterns among individuals in the metropolitan city of Milan, Italy, which was hardly hit by the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of daily contacts during periods characterized by different levels of restrictions was analyzed through negative binomial regression models and age-specific contact matrices were estimated under the different tiers of restrictions. By relying on the empirically estimated mixing patterns, we quantified relative changes in SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential associated with the different tiers. As tighter restrictions were implemented during the fall of 2020, a progressive reduction in the mean number of daily contacts recorded by study participants was observed: from 15.9 % under mild restrictions (yellow tier), to 41.8 % under strong restrictions (red tier). Higher restrictions levels were also found to increase the relative contribution of contacts occurring within the household. The SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number was estimated to decrease by 17.1 % (95 %CI: 1.5-30.1), 25.1 % (95 %CI: 13.0-36.0) and 44.7 % (95 %CI: 33.9-53.0) under the yellow, orange, and red tiers, respectively.ConclusionsOur results give an important quantification of the expected contribution of different restriction levels in shaping social contacts and decreasing the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2. These estimates can find an operational use in anticipating the effect that the implementation of these tiered restriction can have on SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number under an evolving epidemiological situation.

Project description:BackgroundThe novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, also called 2019-nCoV) causes different morbidity risks to individuals in different age groups. This study attempts to quantify the age-specific transmissibility using a mathematical model.MethodsAn epidemiological model with five compartments (susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/removed [SEIAR]) was developed based on observed transmission features. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases were divided into four age groups: group 1, those ≤ 14 years old; group 2, those 15 to 44 years old; group 3, those 45 to 64 years old; and group 4, those ≥ 65 years old. The model was initially based on cases (including imported cases and secondary cases) collected in Hunan Province from January 5 to February 19, 2020. Another dataset, from Jilin Province, was used to test the model.ResultsThe age-specific SEIAR model fitted the data well in each age group (P < 0.001). In Hunan Province, the highest transmissibility was from age group 4 to 3 (median: β43 = 7.71 × 10- 9; SAR43 = 3.86 × 10- 8), followed by group 3 to 4 (median: β34 = 3.07 × 10- 9; SAR34 = 1.53 × 10- 8), group 2 to 2 (median: β22 = 1.24 × 10- 9; SAR22 = 6.21 × 10- 9), and group 3 to 1 (median: β31 = 4.10 × 10- 10; SAR31 = 2.08 × 10- 9). The lowest transmissibility was from age group 3 to 3 (median: β33 = 1.64 × 10- 19; SAR33 = 8.19 × 10- 19), followed by group 4 to 4 (median: β44 = 3.66 × 10- 17; SAR44 = 1.83 × 10- 16), group 3 to 2 (median: β32 = 1.21 × 10- 16; SAR32 = 6.06 × 10- 16), and group 1 to 4 (median: β14 = 7.20 × 10- 14; SAR14 = 3.60 × 10- 13). In Jilin Province, the highest transmissibility occurred from age group 4 to 4 (median: β43 = 4.27 × 10- 8; SAR43 = 2.13 × 10- 7), followed by group 3 to 4 (median: β34 = 1.81 × 10- 8; SAR34 = 9.03 × 10- 8).ConclusionsSARS-CoV-2 exhibits high transmissibility between middle-aged (45 to 64 years old) and elderly (≥ 65 years old) people. Children (≤ 14 years old) have very low susceptibility to COVID-19. This study will improve our understanding of the transmission feature of SARS-CoV-2 in different age groups and suggest the most prevention measures should be applied to middle-aged and elderly people.

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Predictive Models of within- and between-Species SARS-CoV-2 Transmissibility.

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