Assessing Smoking Status and Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Machine Learning Approach among Veterans.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Nono Djotsa ABS
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9319659 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Data science has been an invaluable part of the COVID-19 pandemic response with multiple applications, ranging from tracking viral evolution to understanding the vaccine effectiveness. Asymptomatic breakthrough infections have been a major problem in assessing vaccine effectiveness in populations globally. Serological discrimination of vaccine response from infection has so far been limited to Spike protein vaccines since whole virion vaccines generate antibodies against all the viral proteins. Here, we show how a statistical and machine learning (ML) based approach can be used to discriminate between SARS-CoV-2 infection and immune response to an inactivated whole virion vaccine (BBV152, Covaxin). For this, we assessed serial data on antibodies against Spike and Nucleocapsid antigens, along with age, sex, number of doses taken, and days since last dose, for 1823 Covaxin recipients. An ensemble ML model, incorporating a consensus clustering approach alongside the support vector machine model, was built on 1063 samples where reliable qualifying data existed, and then applied to the entire dataset. Of 1448 self-reported negative subjects, our ensemble ML model classified 724 to be infected. For method validation, we determined the relative ability of a random subset of samples to neutralize Delta versus wild-type strain using a surrogate neutralization assay. We worked on the premise that antibodies generated by a whole virion vaccine would neutralize wild type more efficiently than delta strain. In 100 of 156 samples, where ML prediction differed from self-reported uninfected status, neutralization against Delta strain was more effective, indicating infection. We found 71.8% subjects predicted to be infected during the surge, which is concordant with the percentage of sequences classified as Delta (75.6%-80.2%) over the same period. Our approach will help in real-world vaccine effectiveness assessments where whole virion vaccines are commonly used.
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Project description:Asymptomatic COVID-19 has become one of the biggest challenges for controlling the spread of the SARS-CoV-2. Diagnosis of asymptomatic COVID-19 mainly depends on quantitative reverse transcription PCR (qRT-PCR), which is typically time-consuming and requires expensive reagents. The application is limited in countries that lack sufficient resources to handle large-scale assay during the COVID-19 outbreak. Here, we demonstrated a new approach to detect the asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection using serum metabolic patterns combined with ensemble learning. The direct patterns of metabolites and lipids were extracted by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry (MALDI-MS) within 1 s with simple sample preparation. A new ensemble learning model was developed using stacking strategy with a new voting algorithm. This approach was validated in a large cohort of 274 samples (92 asymptomatic COVID-19 and 182 healthy control), and provided the high accuracy of 93.4%, with only 5% false negative and 7% false positive rates. We also identified a biomarker panel of ten metabolites and lipids, as well as the altered metabolic pathways during asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection. The proposed rapid and low-cost approach holds promise to apply in the large-scale asymptomatic COVID-19 screening.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Accurate smoking status is key for research purposes, but can be costly and difficult to measure. Within the Veteran's Health Administration (VA), smoking status is recorded as part of routine care as "health factors" (HF)-fields that researchers can query through the electronic health record (EHR). Many researchers are interested in using these fields to track changes in smoking status over time, however the validity of this measure for assessing change is unknown. The primary goal of this project was to examine whether HFs can be used to accurately measure change in tobacco status over time, with secondary goals of assessing the optimum timeframe for assessment and variation in accuracy by site. METHODS:Secondary analysis of the Veterans VICTORY study, a pragmatic smoking cessation randomized controlled trial conducted from 2009 to 2011. Eligible subjects were identified via the EHR using a past 90-day HF indicating current tobacco use (for example: "CURRENT SMOKER", "CURRENTLY USES TOBACCO"). Participants were surveyed at 1 year to determine prolonged smoking abstinence. We identified HFs for tobacco status within +/-?120 days of the follow-up survey mailing date and recorded the temporally closest HF. Among subjects with both measures, we compared the two for agreement using kappa statistics and concordance. RESULTS:1713 subjects (33%) had both follow-up survey and HF data, 1594 (31%) had only a survey response, 790 (15%) had only HF and 1026 (20%) had neither. For subjects with both measures, there was 90% concordance and moderate agreement (Kappa 0.48, 95%CI 0.41-0.55, Sensitivity 54.4, 95%CI 41.1-67.7, Specificity 94.3, 95%CI 87.5-100.0). CONCLUSIONS:We found high concordance but only moderate agreement by kappa statistics between HFs and survey data. The difference is likely accounted for by the natural history of quit attempts, in which patients cycle in and out of quit attempts. HFs appear to provide an accurate measure of population level quit behavior utilizing data collected in the course of clinical care.
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Project description:IntroductionWithin a few months coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) evolved into a pandemic causing millions of cases worldwide, but it remains challenging to diagnose the disease in a timely fashion in the emergency department (ED). In this study we aimed to construct machine-learning (ML) models to predict severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection based on the clinical features of patients visiting an ED during the early COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsWe retrospectively collected the data of all patients who received reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing for SARS-CoV-2 at the ED of Baylor Scott & White All Saints Medical Center, Fort Worth, from February 23-May 12, 2020. The variables collected included patient demographics, ED triage data, clinical symptoms, and past medical history. The primary outcome was the confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 (or SARS-CoV-2 infection) by a positive RT-PCR test result for SARS-CoV-2, and was used as the label for ML tasks. We used univariate analyses for feature selection, and variables with P<0.1 were selected for model construction. Samples were split into training and testing cohorts on a 60:40 ratio chronologically. We tried various ML algorithms to construct the best predictive model, and we evaluated performances with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in the testing cohort.ResultsA total of 580 ED patients were tested for SARS-CoV-2 during the study periods, and 98 (16.9%) were identified as having the SARS-CoV-2 infection based on the RT-PCR results. Univariate analyses selected 21 features for model construction. We assessed three ML methods for performance: of the three methods, random forest outperformed the others with the best AUC result (0.86), followed by gradient boosting (0.83) and extra trees classifier (0.82).ConclusionThis study shows that it is feasible to use ML models as an initial screening tool for identifying patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Further validation will be necessary to determine how effectively this prediction model can be used prospectively in clinical practice.
| S-EPMC7972393 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Gene expression profiles were generated from 199 primary breast cancer patients. Samples 1-176 were used in another study, GEO Series GSE22820, and form the training data set in this study. Sample numbers 200-222 form a validation set. This data is used to model a machine learning classifier for Estrogen Receptor Status. RNA was isolated from 199 primary breast cancer patients. A machine learning classifier was built to predict ER status using only three gene features.
2013-01-01 | E-GEOD-29210 | biostudies-arrayexpress
Project description:AIMS:Most cigarette smokers want to quit smoking and more than half make an attempt every year, but less than 10% remain abstinent for at least 6 months. Evidence-based tobacco use treatment improves the likelihood of quitting, but more than two-thirds of individuals relapse when provided even the most robust treatments. Identifying for whom treatment is effective will improve the success of our treatments and perhaps identify strategies for improving current approaches. METHODS:Two cohorts (training: N = 90, validation: N = 71) of cigarette smokers enrolled in group cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT). Generalized estimating equations were used to identify baseline predictors of outcome, as defined by breath carbon monoxide and urine cotinine. Significant measures were entered as candidate variables to predict quit status. The resulting decision trees were used to predict cessation outcomes in a validation cohort. RESULTS:In the training cohort, the decision trees significantly improved on chance classification of smoking status following treatment and at 6-month follow-up. The first split of all decision trees, which was delay discounting, significantly improved on chance classification rates in both the training and validation cohort. Delay discounting emerged as the single best predictor of group CBT treatment response with an average baseline discount rate of ln(k) = -7.1, correctly predicting smoking status of 80% of participants at posttreatment and 81% of participants at follow-up. CONCLUSIONS:This study provides a first step toward personalized care for smoking cessation though future work is needed to identify individuals that are likely to be successful in treatments beyond group CBT. IMPLICATIONS:This study provides a first step toward personalized care for smoking cessation. Using a novel machine-learning approach, baseline measures of clinical and executive functioning are used to predict smoking cessation outcomes following group CBT. A decision point is recommended for the single best predictor of treatment outcomes, delay discounting, to inform future research or clinical practice in an effort to better allocate patients to treatments that are likely to work.
| S-EPMC7297111 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Due to the continued evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, researchers worldwide are working to mitigate, suppress its spread, and better understand it by deploying digital signal processing (DSP) and machine learning approaches. This study presents an alignment-free approach to classify the SARS-CoV-2 using complementary DNA, which is DNA synthesized from the single-stranded RNA virus. Herein, a total of 1582 samples, with different lengths of genome sequences from different regions, were collected from various data sources and divided into a SARS-CoV-2 and a non-SARS-CoV-2 group. We extracted eight biomarkers based on three-base periodicity, using DSP techniques, and ranked those based on a filter-based feature selection. The ranked biomarkers were fed into k-nearest neighbor, support vector machines, decision trees, and random forest classifiers for the classification of SARS-CoV-2 from other coronaviruses. The training dataset was used to test the performance of the classifiers based on accuracy and F-measure via 10-fold cross-validation. Kappa-scores were estimated to check the influence of unbalanced data. Further, 10 × 10 cross-validation paired t-test was utilized to test the best model with unseen data. Random forest was elected as the best model, differentiating the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus from other coronaviruses and a control a group with an accuracy of 97.4 %, sensitivity of 96.2 %, and specificity of 98.2 %, when tested with unseen samples. Moreover, the proposed algorithm was computationally efficient, taking only 0.31 s to compute the genome biomarkers, outperforming previous studies.
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Project description:Dysregulated immune responses contribute to the excessive and uncontrolled inflammation observed in severe COVID-19. However, how immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is induced and regulated remains unclear. Here we uncover a role of the complement system in the induction of innate and adaptive immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Complement rapidly opsonizes SARS-CoV-2 particles via the lectin pathway. Complement-opsonized SARS-CoV-2 efficiently induces type-I interferon and pro-inflammatory cytokine responses via activation of dendritic cells, which are inhibited by antibodies against the complement receptors (CR) 3 and 4. Serum from COVID-19 patients, or monoclonal antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, attenuate innate and adaptive immunity induced by complement-opsonized SARS-CoV-2. Blocking of CD32, the FcγRII antibody receptor of dendritic cells, restores complement-induced immunity. These results suggest that opsonization of SARS-CoV-2 by complement is involved in the induction of innate and adaptive immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in the acute phase of infection. Subsequent antibody responses limit inflammation and restore immune homeostasis. These findings suggest that dysregulation of the complement system and FcγRII signaling may contribute to severe COVID-19.
| S-SCDT-10_1038-S44318-024-00061-0 | biostudies-other
Project description:Background and objectiveThe new type of Coronavirus (2019-nCov) epidemic spread rapidly, causing more than 250 thousand deaths worldwide. The virus, which first appeared as a sign of pneumonia, was later called the SARS-COV-2 with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome by the World Health Organization. The SARS-COV-2 virus is triggered by binding to the Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2 (ACE 2) inhibitor, which is vital in cardiovascular diseases and the immune system, especially in conditions such as cerebrovascular, hypertension, and diabetes. This study aims to evaluate the prediction performance of death status based on the demographic/clinical factors (including COVID-19 severity) by data mining methods.MethodsThe dataset consists of 1603 SARS-COV-2 patients and 13 variables obtained from an open-source web address. The current dataset contains age, gender, chronic disease (hypertension, diabetes, renal, cardiovascular, etc.), some enzymes (ACE, angiotensin II receptor blockers), and COVID-19 severity, which are used to predict death status using deep learning and machine learning approaches (random forest, k-nearest neighbor, extreme gradient boosting [XGBoost]). A grid search algorithm tunes hyperparameters of the models, and predictions are assessed through performance metrics. Steps of knowledge discovery in databases are applied to obtain the relevant information.ResultsThe accuracy rate of deep learning (97.15%) was more successful than the accuracy rate based on classical machine learning (92.15% for RF and 93.4% for k-NN), but the ensemble classifier XGBoost method gave the highest accuracy (99.7%). While COVID-19 severity and age calculated from XGBoost were the two most important factors associated with death status, the most determining variables for death status estimated from deep learning were COVID-19 severity and hypertension.ConclusionsThe proposed model (XGBoost) achieved the best prediction of death status based on the factors as compared to the other algorithms. The results of this study can guide patients with certain variables to take early measures and access preventive health care services before they become infected with the virus.
| S-EPMC7826038 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AbstractMolecular dynamics (MD) simulations are a widely used technique in modeling complex nanoscale interactions of atoms and molecules. These simulations can provide detailed insight into how molecules behave under certain environmental conditions. This work explores a machine learning (ML) solution to predicting long-term properties of SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoproteins (S-protein) through the analysis of its nanosecond backbone RMSD (root-mean-square deviation) MD simulation data at varying temperatures. The simulation data were denoised with fast Fourier transforms. The performance of the models was measured by evaluating their mean squared error (MSE) accuracy scores in recurrent forecasts for long-term predictions. The models evaluated include k-nearest neighbors (kNN) regression models, as well as GRU (gated recurrent unit) neural networks and LSTM (long short-term memory) autoencoder models. Results demonstrated that the kNN model achieved the greatest accuracy in forecasts with MSE scores over around 0.01 nm less than those of the GRU model and the LSTM autoencoder. Furthermore, it demonstrated that the kNN model accuracy increases with data size but can still forecast relatively well when trained on small amounts of data, having achieved MSE scores of around 0.02 nm when trained on 10,000 ns of simulation data. This study provides valuable information on the feasibility of accelerating the MD simulation process through training and predicting supervised ML models, which is particularly applicable in time-sensitive studies.Graphic abstractSARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein molecular dynamics simulation. Extraction and denoising of backbone RMSD data. Evaluation of k-nearest neighbors regression, GRU neural network, and LSTM autoencoder models in recurrent forecasting for long-term property predictions.
| S-EPMC7888691 | biostudies-literature