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Forecasted Trends of the New COVID-19 Epidemic Due to the Omicron Variant in Thailand, 2022.

ABSTRACT: Thailand is among many countries severely affected by COVID-19 since the beginning of the global pandemic. Thus, a deliberate planning of health care resource allocation against health care demand in light of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant, Omicron, is crucial. This study aims to forecast the trends in COVID-19 cases and deaths from the Omicron variant in Thailand. We used a compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model combined with a system dynamics model. We developed four scenarios with differing values of the reproduction number (R) and vaccination rates. In the most pessimistic scenario (R = 7.5 and base vaccination rate), the number of incident cases reached a peak of 49,523 (95% CI: 20,599 to 99,362) by day 73, and the peak daily deaths grew to 270 by day 50. The predicted cumulative cases and deaths at the end of the wave were approximately 3.7 million and 22,000, respectively. In the most optimistic assumption (R = 4.5 and speedy vaccination rate), the peak incident cases was about one third the cases in the pessimistic assumption (15,650, 95% CI: 12,688 to 17,603). In the coming months, Thailand may face a new wave of the COVID-19 epidemic due to the Omicron variant. The case toll due to the Omicron wave is likely to outnumber the earlier Delta wave, but the death toll is proportionately lower. Vaccination campaigns for the booster dose should be expedited to prevent severe illnesses and deaths in the population.

SUBMITTER: Suphanchaimat R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9320113 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundMany countries, including high-income nations, struggled to control epidemic waves caused by the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529), which had an antigenically distinct evolution. Evaluating the direct and indirect effects of vaccination during the Omicron waves is essential to assess virus control policies. The present study assessed the population impacts of a vaccination program during the sixth wave caused by BA.1 and BA.2 from January to May 2022, in Tokyo.MethodsWe analyzed the primary series and booster vaccination coverages and the confirmed cases stratified by vaccination history. We estimated the number of COVID-19 cases that were directly and indirectly prevented by vaccination. To estimate the direct impact, we used a statistical model that compared risks between unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals. A transmission model employing the renewal process was devised to quantify the total effect, given as the sum of the direct and indirect effects.ResultsAssuming that the reporting coverage of cases was 25%, mass vaccination programs, including primary and booster immunizations, directly averted 640,000 COVID-19 cases (95% confidence interval: 624-655). Furthermore, these programs directly and indirectly prevented 8.5 million infections (95% confidence interval: 8.4-8.6). Hypothetical scenarios indicated that we could have expected a 19% or 7% relative reduction in the number of infections, respectively, compared with the observed number of infections, if the booster coverage had been equivalent to that of the second dose or if coverage among people aged 10-49 years had been 10% higher. If the third dose coverage was smaller and comparable to that of the fourth dose, the total number of infections would have increased by 52% compared with the observed number of infections.ConclusionsThe population benefit of vaccination via direct and indirect effects was substantial, with an estimated 65% reduction in the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections compared with counterfactual (without vaccination) in Tokyo during the sixth wave caused by BA.1 and BA.2.

Project description:BackgroundThe most recent variant of concern, omicron (B.1.1.529), has caused numerous cases worldwide including the Republic of Korea due to its fast transmission and reduced vaccine effectiveness.MethodsA mathematical model considering age-structure, vaccine, antiviral drugs, and influx of the omicron variant was developed. We estimated transmission rates among age groups using maximum likelihood estimation for the age-structured model. The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs; in community and border), quantified by a parameter μ in the force of infection, and vaccination were examined through a multi-faceted analysis. A theory-based endemic equilibrium study was performed to find the manageable number of cases according to omicron- and healthcare-related factors.ResultsBy fitting the model to the available data, the estimated values of μ ranged from 0.31 to 0.73, representing the intensity of NPIs such as social distancing level. If μ < 0.55 and 300,000 booster shots were administered daily from February 3, 2022, the number of severe cases was forecasted to exceed the severe bed capacity. Moreover, the number of daily cases is reduced as the timing of screening measures is delayed. If screening measure was intensified as early as November 24, 2021 and the number of overseas entrant cases was contained to 1 case per 10 days, simulations showed that the daily incidence by February 3, 2022 could have been reduced by 87%. Furthermore, we found that the incidence number in mid-December 2021 exceeded the theory-driven manageable number of daily cases.ConclusionNPIs, vaccination, and antiviral drugs influence the spread of omicron and number of severe cases in the Republic of Korea. Intensive and early screening measures during the emergence of a new variant is key in controlling the epidemic size. Using the endemic equilibrium of the model, a formula for the manageable daily cases depending on the severity rate and average length of hospital stay was derived so that the number of severe cases does not surpass the severe bed capacity.

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Forecasted Trends of the New COVID-19 Epidemic Due to the Omicron Variant in Thailand, 2022.

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