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Assessing the dynamic impacts of non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical intervention measures on the containment results against COVID-19 in Ethiopia.

ABSTRACT: The rapid spread of COVID-19 in Ethiopia was attributed to joint effects of multiple factors such as low adherence to face mask-wearing, failure to comply with social distancing measures, many people attending religious worship activities and holiday events, extensive protests, country election rallies during the pandemic, and the war between the federal government and Tigray Region. This study built a system dynamics model to capture COVID-19 characteristics, major social events, stringencies of containment measures, and vaccination dynamics. This system dynamics model served as a framework for understanding the issues and gaps in the containment measures against COVID-19 in the past period (16 scenarios) and the spread dynamics of the infectious disease over the next year under a combination of different interventions (264 scenarios). In the counterfactual analysis, we found that keeping high mask-wearing adherence since the outbreak of COVID-19 in Ethiopia could have significantly reduced the infection under the condition of low vaccination level or unavailability of the vaccine supply. Reducing or canceling major social events could achieve a better outcome than imposing constraints on people's routine life activities. The trend analysis found that increasing mask-wearing adherence and enforcing more stringent social distancing were two major measures that can significantly reduce possible infections. Higher mask-wearing adherence had more significant impacts than enforcing social distancing measures in our settings. As the vaccination rate increases, reduced efficacy could cause more infections than shortened immunological periods. Offsetting effects of multiple interventions (strengthening one or more interventions while loosening others) could be applied when the levels or stringencies of one or more interventions need to be adjusted for catering to particular needs (e.g., less stringent social distancing measures to reboot the economy or cushion insufficient resources in some areas).

SUBMITTER: Zhu H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9321453 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:COVID-19 scenarios were run using an epidemiological mathematical model (system dynamics model) and counterfactual analysis to simulate the impacts of different control and containment measures on cumulative infections and deaths in Bangladesh and Pakistan. The simulations were based on national-level data concerning vaccination level, hospital capacity, and other factors, from the World Health Organization, the World Bank, and the Our World in Data web portal. These data were added to cumulative infections and death data from government agencies covering the period from 18 March 2020 to 28 February 2022. Baseline curves for Pakistan and Bangladesh were obtained using piecewise fitting with a consideration of different events against the reported data and allowing for less than 5% random errors in cumulative infections and deaths. The results indicate that Bangladesh could have achieved more reductions in each key outcome measure by shifting its initial lockdown at least five days backward, while Pakistan would have needed to extend its lockdown to achieve comparable improvements. Bangladesh's second lockdown appears to have been better timed than Pakistan's. There were potential benefits from starting the third lockdown two weeks earlier for Bangladesh and from combining this with the fourth lockdown or canceling the fourth lockdown altogether. Adding a two-week lockdown at the beginning of the upward slope of the second wave could have led to a more than 40 percent reduction in cumulative infections and a 35 percent reduction in cumulative deaths for both countries. However, Bangladesh's reductions were more sensitive to the duration of the lockdown. Pakistan's response was more constrained by medical resources, while Bangladesh's outcomes were more sensitive to both vaccination timing and capacities. More benefits were lost when combining multiple scenarios for Bangladesh compared to the same combinations in Pakistan. Clearly, cumulative infections and deaths could have been highly impacted by adjusting the control and containment measures in both national settings. However, COVID-19 outcomes were more sensitive to adjustment interventions for the Bangladesh context. Disaggregated analyses, using a wider range of factors, may reveal several sub-national dynamics. Nonetheless, the current research demonstrates the relevance of lockdown timing adjustments and discrete adjustments to several other control and containment measures.

Project description:In the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in Liberia, two major emergency disease-control measures were cremation of bodies and enforcement of quarantine for asymptomatic individuals suspected of being in contact with a positive case. Enforced by State-related actors, these were promoted as the only method to curtail transmissions as soon as possible. However, as with other harsh measures witnessed by Liberian citizens, in many cases those measures elicited uncontrolled negative reactions within the communities (stigma; fear) that produced, in some cases, the opposite effect of that intended.The research has been conducted in two phases, for a total of 8 weeks. Ethnography of local practices was carried out in 7 neighbourhoods in Monrovia and 5 villages in Grand Cape Mount County in Liberia. 45 Focus Group Discussions (432 participants) and 30 semi-structured interviews sustained the observing participation. Randomly selected people from different social layers were targeted. The principal investigator worked with the help of two local assistants. Perceptions and practices were both analysed.Participants stressed how cremation perpetuated the social breakdown that started with the isolation for the sickness. Socio-economical divides were created by inequitable management of the dead: those who could bribe the burial teams obtained a burial in a private cemetery or the use of Funeral Homes. Conversely, those in economic disadvantage were forced to send their dead for cremation. State-enforced quarantine, with a mandatory prohibition of movement, raised condemnation, strengthened stigmatization and created serious socio-economic distress. Food was distributed intermittently and some houses shared latrines with non-quarantined neighbours. Escapes were also recorded. Study participants narrated how they adopted local measures of containment, through local task forces and socially-rooted control of outsiders. They also stressed how information that was not spread built up rumours and suspicion.Populations experiencing an epidemic feel a high degree of social insecurity, in addition to the health hazards. Vertical and coercive measures increase mistrust and fear, producing a counter-productive effect in the containment of the epidemic. On the other hand, local communities show a will to be engaged and a high degree of flexibility in participating to the epidemic response. Efforts in the direction of awareness and community involvement could prove to be better strategy to control the epidemic and root the response on social participation.

Project description:A novel coronavirus causing severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), named SARS-CoV-2, was identified at the end of 2019. The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has progressively expanded from China, involving several countries throughout the world, leading to the classification of the disease as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). According to published reports, COVID-19 severity and mortality are higher in elderly patients and those with active comorbidities. In particular, lung cancer patients were reported to be at high risk of pulmonary complications related to SARS-CoV2 infection. Therefore, the management of cancer care during the COVID-19 pandemic is a crucial issue, to which national and international oncology organizations have replied with recommendations concerning patients receiving anticancer treatments, delaying follow-up visits and limiting caregiver admission to the hospitals. In this historical moment, medical oncologists are required to consider the possibility to delay active treatment administration based on a case-by-case risk/benefit evaluation. Potential risks associated with COVID-19 infection should be considered, considering tumor histology and natural course, disease setting, clinical conditions, and disease burden, together with the expected benefit, toxicities (e.g., myelosuppression or interstitial lung disease), and response obtained from the planned or ongoing treatment. In this study, we report the results of proactive measures including social media, telemedicine, and telephone triage for screening patients with lung cancer during the COVID-19 outbreak in the European Institute of Oncology (Milan, Italy). Proactive management and containment measures, applied in a structured and daily way, has significantly aided the identification of advance patients with suspected symptoms related to COVID-19, limiting their admission to our cancer center; we have thus been more able to protect other patients from possible contamination and at the same time guarantee to the suspected patients the immediate treatment and evaluation in referral hospitals for COVID-19.

Project description:BackgroundThe promotion strategies of pharmaceutical companies create many problems including irrational prescribing, diminished trust in the patient-physician relationship and unnecessary increases in pharmaceutical costs. Educating prescribers is known to be one of the few potentially effective measures to counteract those impacts. However such educational programs are limited in the literature, and their effectiveness against the effects of hidden curriculum in the long term is unknown. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of an education program both in the short term and the long term after the students have been exposed to informal and hidden curriculum and various pharmaceutical promotion methods.MethodsA longitudinal and controlled study was carried out in a school of medicine in Turkey where there are no restrictive policies for pharmaceutical promotion. A survey was applied to 123 students who attended the class throughout the terms of 2011-12, 2012-13, and 2013-14, evaluating the pre-educational status of students' opinions of promotion and any post-educational changes. A follow-up study four years later asked those three cohorts to fill out the same survey to see the possible effects of the clinical environment and various promotion methods. Also, the opinions of all 518 sixth-year students who had not taken the class in those three terms were compared to the educated students.ResultsThe program was significantly effective in the short term in changing students' opinions and attitudes positively towards recognizing companies' discourse and promotion strategies. But in the long term, the education lost its ability to convince students of the importance of not getting financial support for scientific activities from pharmaceutical companies (p:0.006) and carrying out research (p<0.001). In addition, although the educated students were more aware that trivial gifts could influence prescriptions compared to the uneducated 6th year students (p<0.001), the difference between them and the uneducated students generally becomes less significant when they encounter the clinical environment. The study also evaluated students highly-exposed to promotion; for this sub-group, the educated students kept their consciousness level about the influences of trivial gifts (p<0.001) while the uneducated students were confident that they were immune to the influence of trivial gifts.ConclusionsThe education program could be used for creating awareness of, increasing skepticism towards, and inculcating disapproval about pharmaceutical promotion practices. However, the effectiveness of the educational intervention is susceptible to erosion after exposure to the informal and hidden curriculum together with exposure to promotion. The impact of role-models, organizational culture, and institutional policies could be important aspects to be addressed for sustaining the effectiveness of such education programs.

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Assessing the dynamic impacts of non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical intervention measures on the containment results against COVID-19 in Ethiopia.

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