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Towards species-level forecasts of drought-induced tree mortality risk.

ABSTRACT: Predicting species-level responses to drought at the landscape scale is critical to reducing uncertainty in future terrestrial carbon and water cycle projections. We embedded a stomatal optimisation model in the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) land surface model and parameterised the model for 15 canopy dominant eucalypt tree species across South-Eastern Australia (mean annual precipitation range: 344-1424 mm yr^-1 ). We conducted three experiments: applying CABLE to the 2017-2019 drought; a 20% drier drought; and a 20% drier drought with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂ ). The severity of the drought was highlighted as for at least 25% of their distribution ranges, 60% of species experienced leaf water potentials beyond the water potential at which 50% of hydraulic conductivity is lost due to embolism. We identified areas of severe hydraulic stress within-species' ranges, but we also pinpointed resilience in species found in predominantly semiarid areas. The importance of the role of CO₂ in ameliorating drought stress was consistent across species. Our results represent an important advance in our capacity to forecast the resilience of individual tree species, providing an evidence base for decision-making around the resilience of restoration plantings or net-zero emission strategies.

SUBMITTER: De Kauwe MG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9321630 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Towards species-level forecasts of drought-induced tree mortality risk.

De Kauwe Martin G MG Sabot Manon E B MEB Medlyn Belinda E BE Pitman Andrew J AJ Meir Patrick P Cernusak Lucas A LA Gallagher Rachael V RV Ukkola Anna M AM Rifai Sami W SW Choat Brendan B

The New phytologist 20220422 1

Predicting species-level responses to drought at the landscape scale is critical to reducing uncertainty in future terrestrial carbon and water cycle projections. We embedded a stomatal optimisation model in the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) land surface model and parameterised the model for 15 canopy dominant eucalypt tree species across South-Eastern Australia (mean annual precipitation range: 344-1424 mm yr<sup>-1</sup> ). We conducted three experiments: applying CABLE ...[more]

PMID: 35363880

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Project description:Tree mortality during global-change-type drought is usually attributed to xylem dysfunction, but as climate change increases the frequency of extreme heat events, it is necessary to better understand the interactive role of heat stress. We hypothesized that some drought-stressed plants paradoxically open stomata in heatwaves to prevent leaves from critically overheating. We experimentally imposed heat (>40°C) and drought stress onto 20 broadleaf evergreen tree/shrub species in a glasshouse study. Most well-watered plants avoided lethal overheating, but drought exacerbated thermal damage during heatwaves. Thermal safety margins (TSM) quantifying the difference between leaf surface temperature and leaf critical temperature, where photosynthesis is disrupted, identified species vulnerability to heatwaves. Several mechanisms contributed to high heat tolerance and avoidance of damaging leaf temperatures-small leaf size, low leaf osmotic potential, high leaf mass per area (i.e., thick, dense leaves), high transpirational capacity, and access to water. Water-stressed plants had smaller TSM, greater crown dieback, and a fundamentally different stomatal heatwave response relative to well-watered plants. On average, well-watered plants closed stomata and decreased stomatal conductance (gs ) during the heatwave, but droughted plants did not. Plant species with low gs , either due to isohydric stomatal behavior under water deficit or inherently low transpirational capacity, opened stomata and increased gs under high temperatures. The current paradigm maintains that stomata close before hydraulic thresholds are surpassed, but our results suggest that isohydric species may dramatically increase gs (over sixfold increases) even past their leaf turgor loss point. By actively increasing water loss at high temperatures, plants can be driven toward mortality thresholds more rapidly than has been previously recognized. The inclusion of TSM and responses to heat stress could improve our ability to predict the vulnerability of different tree species to future droughts.

Dataset Information

Towards species-level forecasts of drought-induced tree mortality risk.

Publications

Towards species-level forecasts of drought-induced tree mortality risk.

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