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Novel Survival Features Generated by Clinical Text Information and Radiomics Features May Improve the Prediction of Ischemic Stroke Outcome

ABSTRACT: Background: Accurate outcome prediction is of great clinical significance in customizing personalized treatment plans, reducing the situation of poor recovery, and objectively and accurately evaluating the treatment effect. This study intended to evaluate the performance of clinical text information (CTI), radiomics features, and survival features (SurvF) for predicting functional outcomes of patients with ischemic stroke. Methods: SurvF was constructed based on CTI and mRS radiomics features (mRSRF) to improve the prediction of the functional outcome in 3 months (90-day mRS). Ten machine learning models predicted functional outcomes in three situations (2-category, 4-category, and 7-category) using seven feature groups constructed by CTI, mRSRF, and SurvF. Results: For 2-category, ALL (CTI + mRSRF+ SurvF) performed best, with an mAUC of 0.884, mAcc of 0.864, mPre of 0.877, mF1 of 0.86, and mRecall of 0.864. For 4-category, ALL also achieved the best mAuc of 0.787, while CTI + SurvF achieved the best score with mAcc = 0.611, mPre = 0.622, mF1 = 0.595, and mRe-call = 0.611. For 7-category, CTI + SurvF performed best, with an mAuc of 0.788, mPre of 0.519, mAcc of 0.529, mF1 of 0.495, and mRecall of 0.47. Conclusions: The above results indicate that mRSRF + CTI can accurately predict functional outcomes in ischemic stroke patients with proper machine learning models. Moreover, combining SurvF will improve the prediction effect compared with the original features. However, limited by the small sample size, further validation on larger and more varied datasets is necessary.

SUBMITTER: Guo Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9324145 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:IntroductionMalignant cerebral edema develops in a small subset of patients with hemispheric strokes, precipitating deterioration and death if decompressive hemicraniectomy (DHC) is not performed in a timely manner. Predicting which stroke patients will develop malignant edema is imprecise based on clinical data alone. Head computed tomography (CT) imaging is often performed at baseline and 24-h. We determined the incremental value of incorporating imaging-derived features from serial CTs to enhance prediction of malignant edema.MethodsWe identified hemispheric stroke patients at three sites with NIHSS ≥ 7 who had baseline as well as 24-h clinical and CT imaging data. We extracted quantitative imaging features from baseline and follow-up CTs, including CSF volume, intracranial reserve (CSF/cranial volume), as well as midline shift (MLS) and infarct-related hypodensity volume. Potentially lethal malignant edema was defined as requiring DHC or dying with MLS over 5-mm. We built machine-learning models using logistic regression first with baseline data and then adding 24-h data including reduction in CSF volume (ΔCSF). Model performance was evaluated with cross-validation using metrics of recall (sensitivity), precision (predictive value), as well as area under receiver-operating-characteristic and precision-recall curves (AUROC, AUPRC).ResultsTwenty of 361 patients (6%) died or underwent DHC. Baseline clinical variables alone had recall of 60% with low precision (7%), AUROC 0.59, AUPRC 0.15. Adding baseline intracranial reserve improved recall to 80% and AUROC to 0.82 but precision remained only 16% (AUPRC 0.28). Incorporating ΔCSF improved AUPRC to 0.53 (AUROC 0.91) while all imaging features further improved prediction (recall 90%, precision 38%, AUROC 0.96, AUPRC 0.66).ConclusionIncorporating quantitative CT-based imaging features from baseline and 24-h CT enhances identification of patients with malignant edema needing DHC. Further refinements and external validation of such imaging-based machine-learning models are required.

Project description:IntroductionStroke remains a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Effective and prompt prognostic evaluation is vital for determining the appropriate management strategy. Radiomics is an emerging noninvasive method used to identify the quantitative imaging indicators for predicting important clinical outcomes. This study was conducted to investigate and validate a radiomics nomogram for predicting ischemic stroke prognosis using the modified Rankin scale (mRS).MethodsA total of 598 consecutive patients with subacute infarction confirmed by diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), from January 2018 to December 2019, were retrospectively assessed. They were assigned to the good (mRS ≤ 2) and poor (mRS > 2) functional outcome groups, respectively. Then, 399 patients examined by MR scanner 1 and 199 patients scanned by MR scanner 2 were assigned to the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Infarction lesions underwent manual segmentation on DWI, extracting 402 radiomic features. A radiomics nomogram encompassing patient characteristics and the radiomics signature was built using a multivariate logistic regression model. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated in the training and validation cohorts. Ultimately, decision curve analysis was implemented to assess the clinical value of the nomogram. The performance of infarction lesion volume was also evaluated using univariate analysis.ResultsStroke lesion volume showed moderate performance, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.678. The radiomics signature, including 11 radiomics features, exhibited good prediction performance. The radiomics nomogram, encompassing clinical characteristics (age, hemorrhage, and 24 h National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score) and the radiomics signature, presented good discriminatory potential in the training cohort [AUC = 0.80; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75-0.86], which was validated in the validation cohort (AUC = 0.73; 95% CI 0.63-0.82). In addition, it demonstrated good calibration in the training (p = 0.55) and validation (p = 0.21) cohorts. Decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical value of this nomogram.ConclusionThis novel noninvasive clinical-radiomics nomogram shows good performance in predicting ischemic stroke prognosis.

Project description:At present, it is still challenging to predict the clinical outcome of acute ischemic stroke (AIS). In this retrospective study, we explored whether radiomics features extracted from fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) images can predict clinical outcome of patients with AIS. Patients with AIS were divided into a training (n = 110) and an external validation (n = 80) sets. A total of 753 radiomics features were extracted from each FLAIR and ADC image of the 190 patients. Interquartile range (IQR), Wilcoxon rank sum test, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) were used to reduce the feature dimension. The six strongest radiomics features were related to an unfavorable outcome of AIS. A logistic regression analysis was employed for selection of potential predominating clinical and conventional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) factors. Subsequently, we developed several models based on clinical and conventional MRI factors and radiomics features to predict the outcome of AIS patients. For predicting unfavorable outcome [modified Rankin scale (mRS) > 2] in the training set, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of ADC radiomics model was 0.772, FLAIR radiomics model 0.731, ADC and FLAIR radiomics model 0.815, clinical model 0.791, and clinical and conventional MRI model 0.782. In the external validation set, the AUCs for the prediction with ADC radiomics model was 0.792, FLAIR radiomics model 0.707, ADC and FLAIR radiomics model 0.825, clinical model 0.763, and clinical and conventional MRI model 0.751. When adding radiomics features to the combined model, the AUCs for predicting unfavorable outcome in the training and external validation sets were 0.926 and 0.864, respectively. Our results indicate that the radiomics features extracted from FLAIR and ADC can be instrumental biomarkers to predict unfavorable clinical outcome of AIS and would additionally improve predictive performance when adding to combined model.

Project description:Background and Purpose: The CT-DRAGON score was developed to predict long-term functional outcome after acute stroke in the anterior circulation treated by thrombolysis. Its implementation in clinical practice may be hampered by its plethora of variables. The current study was designed to develop and evaluate an alternative score, as a reduced set of features, derived from the original CT-DRAGON score. Methods: This single-center retrospective study included 564 patients treated for stroke, in the anterior and the posterior circulation. At 90 days, favorable [modified Rankin Scale score (mRS) of 0-2] and miserable outcome (mRS of 5-6) were predicted by the CT-DRAGON in 427 patients. Bootstrap forests selected the most relevant parameters of the CT-DRAGON, in order to develop a reduced set of features. Discrimination, calibration and misclassification of both models were tested. Results: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for the CT-DRAGON was 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.81) for favorable and 0.78 (95% CI 0.72-0.83) for miserable outcome. Misclassification was 29% for favorable and 13.5% for miserable outcome, with a 100% specificity for the latter. National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), pre-stroke mRS and age were identified as the strongest contributors to favorable and miserable outcome and named the reduced features set. While CT-DRAGON was only available in 323 patients (57%), the reduced features set could be calculated in 515 patients (91%) (p < 0.001). Misclassification was 25.8% for favorable and 14.4% for miserable outcome, with a 97% specificity for miserable outcome. The reduced features set had better discriminative power than CT-DRAGON for both outcomes (both p < 0.005), with an AUROC of 0.82 (95% CI 0.79-0.86) and 0.83 (95% CI 0.77-0.87) for favorable and miserable outcome, respectively. Conclusions: The CT-DRAGON score revealed acceptable discrimination in our cohort of both anterior and posterior circulation strokes, receiving all treatment modalities. The reduced features set could be measured in a larger cohort and with better discrimination. However, the reduced features set needs further validation in a prospective, multicentre study. Clinical Trial Registration: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Identifiers: NCT03355690, NCT04092543.

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Novel Survival Features Generated by Clinical Text Information and Radiomics Features May Improve the Prediction of Ischemic Stroke Outcome

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