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A nomogram to predict survival probability of gastric cancer patients undergoing radical surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy.

ABSTRACT: Gastric cancer (GC) is the third-leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram that estimates 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival probability of GC patients after D2 gastrectomy combined with adjuvant chemotherapy. The results showed that median age is 58 (range: 18-85) years in the training cohort and 59 (range: 32-85) years in the validation cohort. On multivariate analysis, four factors were found to be significantly associated with worse overall survival (OS): late TNM stage, positive resection margin, preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, and single chemotherapy regimens compared with multiple chemotherapy regimens. All of these findings were validated in the validation cohort. Furthermore, the four factors were included in the final nomogram for the prediction of 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival probability, with accurate calibration and reasonable discrimination (C-index = 0.676 for training cohort, and C-index = 0.664 for validation cohort). The AUC values analyzed by the ROC analysis demonstrated a good predictive accuracy of the nomogram for OS (1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS were 94.43%, 77.42%, and 73.03% in the training cohort, respectively; 96.95%, 81.54%, and 73.41% in the validation cohort, respectively). In conclusion, the proposed nomogram may be used to objectively and accurately predict survival probability of GC patients in a multi-institutional clinical setting.

SUBMITTER: Ma L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9389342 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A nomogram to predict survival probability of gastric cancer patients undergoing radical surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy.

Ma Ling L Chen Guosheng G Wang Deqiang D Zhang Kai K Zhao Fengjiao F Tang Jie J Zhao Jianyi J Røe Oluf Dimitri OD He Shaohua S Liao Dongcheng D Gu Yanhong Y Tao Min M Shu Yongqian Y Li Wei W Chen Xiaofeng X

Frontiers in oncology 20220805

Gastric cancer (GC) is the third-leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram that estimates 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival probability of GC patients after D2 gastrectomy combined with adjuvant chemotherapy. The results showed that median age is 58 (range: 18-85) years in the training cohort and 59 (range: 32-85) years in the validation cohort. On multivariate analysis, four factors were found to be significantly associated with worse overall ...[more]

PMID: 35992865

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Project description:Background: Most patients with early gastric cancer (EGC) can achieve a better 5-year survival rate after endoscopic resection or surgery. However, indications for adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) after surgery have not yet been determined. Methods: A total of 4,108 patients with EGC diagnosed in 2004-2016 were retrospectively analyzed using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Of these, 3,521 patients received postoperative ACT and 587 patients did not. Propensity score matching was used to balance the two groups' confounding factors. Kaplan-Meier method was utilized to perform survival analysis. Log-rank test was used to compare the differences between survival curves. Cox proportional-hazards regression model was used to screen independent risk factors and build a nomogram for the non-ACT group. The X-tile software was employed to artificially divide all patients into low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups according to the overall survival score prediction based on the nomogram. A total of 493 patients with EGC diagnosed between 2010 and 2014 in our hospital were included for external validation. Results: Multivariate analysis found that age, sex, race, marital status, primary site, surgical extent, and metastatic lymph node ratio in the non-ACT group were independent prognostic factors for EGC and were included in the construction of the nomogram. The model C-index was 0.730 (95% confidence interval: 0.677-0.783). The patients were divided into three different risk groups based on the nomogram prediction score. Patients in the low-risk group did not benefit from ACT, while patients in the moderate- and high-risk groups did. External validation also demonstrated that moderate- and high-risk patients benefited from ACT. Conclusion: The study nomogram can effectively evaluate postoperative prognosis of patients with EGC. Postoperative ACT is therefore recommended for moderate- and high-risk patients, but not for low-risk patients.

Project description:BackgroundPatients with gastric cancer (GC) have a high recurrence rate after surgery. To predict disease-free survival (DFS), we investigated the value of body composition changes (BCCs) measured by quantitative computed tomography (QCT) in assessing the prognosis of patients with GC undergoing resection combined with adjuvant chemotherapy and to construct a nomogram model in combination with clinical prognostic factors (CPFs).MethodsA retrospective study of 60 patients with GC between February 2015 and June 2019 was conducted. Pre- and posttreatment CT images of patients was used to measure bone mineral density (BMD), subcutaneous fat area (SFA), visceral fat area (VFA), total fat area (TFA), paravertebral muscle area (PMA), and the rate of BCC was calculated. CPFs such as maximum tumor diameter (MTD), human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2), and Ki-67 were derived from postoperative pathological findings. Independent prognostic factors affecting DFS in GC were screened via univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used to plot survival curves and compare the curves between groups, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curves to evaluate the efficacy of the nomogram.ResultsThe results of multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that ΔBMD [hazard ratio (HR): 4.577; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.483-14.132; P=0.008], ΔPMA (HR: 5.784; 95% CI: 1.251-26.740; P=0.025), HER2 (HR: 4.819; 95% CI: 2.201-10.549; P<0.001), and maximal tumor diameter (HR: 3.973; 95% CI: 1.893-8.337; P<0.001) were independent factors influencing DFS. ΔBMD, ΔSFA, ΔVFA, ΔTFA, and ΔPMA were -3.86%, -23.44%, -19.57%, -22.45%, and -5.94%, respectively. The prognostic model of BCCs combined with CPFs had the highest predictive performance. Decision curve analysis (DCA) indicated good clinical benefit for the prognostic nomogram. The concordance index of the prognostic nomogram was 0.814, and the area under the curve (AUC) of predicting 2- and 3-year DFS were 0.879 and 0.928, respectively. The calibration curve showed that the nomogram-predicted DFS aligned well with the actual DFS.ConclusionsThe prognostic nomogram combining BCCs and CPFs was able to reliably predict the DFS of patients with GC.

Project description:Prognostic factors are complicated and changeable for locally advanced gastric cancer (GC) patients. This study aimed to perform a novel prognostic model on survival for locally advanced GC patients who have received neoadjuvant chemotherapy and radical surgery. The locally advanced GC patients with neoadjuvant chemotherapy were included in this study from Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University. A nomogram was developed based on independent prognostic factors identified through a multivariable Cox regression model. Model performance was evaluated in training and independent external cohorts in terms of calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness. A total of 273 patients received radical resections. The median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for all patients were 43.8 and 61.2 months, respectively. Nomogram showed that Lauren type made the greatest contribution to prognosis, followed by ypN. The prognostic nomogram had excellent discriminative ability, with a C-index of 0.689 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.661-0.716], and an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.778, 0.746, and 0.725 for 3-, 5- and 10-year OS, respectively. Similar results were obtained in the external validation cohort. Based on the nomogram, the whole cohort was divided into high-risk and low-risk groups. And risk group classification was significantly associated with clinical characteristics, and produced an AUC value of 0.781, 0.748, and 0.727 for 3-, 5- and 10-year OS, respectively. Furthermore, compared with the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system (8th edition), Japanese criteria, and German criteria, the decision curve analysis (DCA) graphically demonstrated that the new model had more optimal net benefits in predicting the 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS for GC patients. Both C-index and time-dependent ROC curve demonstrated that the nomogram had a stronger capability for accurately predicting prognosis compared with the other staging system. The nomogram model is an effective support tool to predict OS in GC patients undergoing perioperative chemotherapy followed by radical surgery.

Project description:Purpose:We aim to construct a nomogram to predict breast cancer survival and guide postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy in China. Patients and methods:A total of 5,504 breast cancer patients from the Tianjin Breast Cancer Cases Cohort were included. Multivariable Cox regression was used to investigate the factors associated with overall survival (OS) and a nomogram was constructed based on these prognostic factors. The nomogram was internal and external validated and the performance was evaluated by area under the curve (AUC) and calibration curve. The partial score was also constructed and stratified them into low, moderate and high-risk subgroups for death according to the tripartite grouping method. Multivariate Cox regression analysis and the propensity score matching method were respectively used to test the association between adjuvant chemotherapy and OS in different risk subgroups. Results:Age, diameter, histological differentiation, lymph node metastasis, estrogen, and progesterone receptor were incorporated into the nomogram and validation results showed this nomogram was well-calibrated to predict the 3-year [AUC =74.1%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 70.1-78.0%] and 5-year overall survival [AUC =72.3%; 95% CI: 69.6-75.1%]. Adjuvant chemotherapy was negatively associated with death in high risk subgroup [Hazard Ratio (HR) = 0.54; 95% CI: 0.37-0.77; P<0.001]. However, no significant association were found in groups with low (HR=1.47; 95% CI: 0.52-4.19; P=0.47) and moderate risk (HR=0.78; 95% CI: 0.42-1.48; P=0.45). The 1:1 PSM generated 822 pairs of well-matched patients and Kaplan-Meier showed the high-risk patients could benefit from chemotherapy, whereas low risk and moderate risk subjects did not appear to benefit from chemotherapy. Conclusion:Not all of the breast cancer patients benefit equally from chemotherapy. The nomogram could be used to evaluate the overall survival of breast cancer patients and predict the magnitude of benefit and guide adjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer patients after surgery.

Project description:ObjectivesThe advanced gastric adenocarcinoma (GAC) patients (stage III/IV) with surgery may have inconsistent prognoses due to different demographic and clinicopathological factors. In this retrospective study, we developed clinical prediction models for estimating the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in advanced GAC patients with surgery.MethodsA retrospective analysis was conducted using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The total population from 2004 to 2015 was divided into four levels according to age, of which 179 were younger than 45 years old, 695 were 45-59 years old, 1064 were 60-74 years old, and 708 were older than 75 years old. There were 1,712 men and 934 women. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify prognostic factors for OS and CSS. Nomograms were constructed to predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS. The models' calibration and discrimination efficiency were validated. Discrimination and accuracy were evaluated using the consistency index, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration plots; and clinical usefulness was assessed using decision curve analysis. Cross-validation was also conducted to evaluate the accuracy and stability of the models. Prognostic factors identified by Cox regression were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.ResultsA total of 2,646 patients were included in our OS study. Age, primary site, differentiation grade, AJCC 6th_TNM stage, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and number of regional nodes examined were identified as prognostic factors for OS in advanced GAC patients with surgery (P < 0.05). A total of 2,369 patients were included in our CSS study. Age, primary site, differentiation grade, AJCC 6th_TNM stage, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and number of regional nodes examined were identified as risk factors for CSS in these patients (P < 0.05). These factors were used to construct the nomogram to predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS of advanced GAC patients with surgery. The consistency index and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated that the models effectively differentiated between events and nonevents. The calibration plots for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS probability showed good consistence between the predicted and the actual events. The decision curve analysis indicated that the nomogram had higher clinical predictive value and more significant net gain than AJCC 6th_TNM stage in predicting OS and CSS of advanced GAC patients with surgery. Cross-validation also revealed good accuracy and stability of the models.ConclusionThe developed predictive models provided available prognostic estimates for advanced GAC patients with surgery. Our findings suggested that both OS and CSS can benefit from chemotherapy or radiotherapy in these patients.

Project description:The purpose of this prospective pilot study was to determine the efficacy of preoperative chemotherapy with six cycles of FOLFOX 6 (without radiation therapy) followed by radical surgery followed by six additional cycles of FOLFOX 6 for patients with stage II/III rectal cancer.From January 2010 to January 2014, patients with locally advanced rectal cancer who met the eligibility criteria were enrolled in this study. Patients received FOLFOX 6 chemotherapy comprising oxaliplatin and leucovorin calcium i.v. over 2 hours on day 1, then bolus, and then continuous fluorouracil i.v. over 46 hours on days 1 and 2. Treatment was repeated every 14 days for 6 courses followed by radical surgery followed by additional 6 cycles of FOLFOX 6.In total, 45 patients were enrolled in this study. In the preoperative re-evaluation, the overall response rate was 68.8% (clinical complete response was 4.4%, and the partial response was 64.4%). There were 14 cases (31.2%) of stable disease. No patients had progressive disease. Postoperatively, the pathologic complete response rate was 8 of 45 (17.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.9%-28.9%). The median follow-up was 29 months (range 9-54 months). The actuarial 3-year overall survival and disease-free survival rates for all patients were 80.8% (standard error, 1.877; 95% CI: 69.3%-92.3%) and 67.9% (standard error, 2.319; 95% CI: 54.3%-81.5%), respectively.Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (FOLFOX) without radiotherapy is active and safe but cannot be considered a standard of care until the results of prospective randomized phase III trials are available.Neoadjuvant radiotherapy of rectal cancer represents the current standard of care. However, its use is also associated with short-term toxicity and long-term morbidity. With the increasing use of total mesorectal resection resulting in better local control and advances in systemic therapy for colorectal cancer, this study highlights the question of whether radiation is a necessary component of neoadjuvant therapy for all patients with rectal cancer or whether select patients could be spared the additional toxicities and inconvenience of radiotherapy. This study suggests that neoadjuvant FOLFOX without radiotherapy is active and safe, but it could not be considered a standard of care till now.

Dataset Information

A nomogram to predict survival probability of gastric cancer patients undergoing radical surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy.

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A nomogram to predict survival probability of gastric cancer patients undergoing radical surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy.

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