Dataset Information

Development of a prediction model on preeclampsia using machine learning-based method: a retrospective cohort study in China.

ABSTRACT: Objective: The aim of this study was to use machine learning methods to analyze all available clinical and laboratory data obtained during prenatal screening in early pregnancy to develop predictive models in preeclampsia (PE). Material and Methods: Data were collected by retrospective medical records review. This study used 5 machine learning algorithms to predict the PE: deep neural network (DNN), logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), decision tree (DT), and random forest (RF). Our model incorporated 18 variables including maternal characteristics, medical history, prenatal laboratory results, and ultrasound results. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC), calibration and discrimination were evaluated by cross-validation. Results: Compared with other prediction algorithms, the RF model showed the highest accuracy rate. The AUROC of RF model was 0.86 (95% CI 0.80-0.92), the accuracy was 0.74 (95% CI 0.74-0.75), the precision was 0.82 (95% CI 0.79-0.84), the recall rate was 0.42 (95% CI 0.41-0.44), and Brier score was 0.17 (95% CI 0.17-0.17). Conclusion: The machine learning method in our study automatically identified a set of important predictive features, and produced high predictive performance on the risk of PE from the early pregnancy information.

SUBMITTER: Liu M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9413067 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development of a prediction model on preeclampsia using machine learning-based method: a retrospective cohort study in China.

Liu Mengyuan M Yang Xiaofeng X Chen Guolu G Ding Yuzhen Y Shi Meiting M Sun Lu L Huang Zhengrui Z Liu Jia J Liu Tong T Yan Ruiling R Li Ruiman R

Frontiers in physiology 20220812

<b>Objective:</b> The aim of this study was to use machine learning methods to analyze all available clinical and laboratory data obtained during prenatal screening in early pregnancy to develop predictive models in preeclampsia (PE). <b>Material and Methods:</b> Data were collected by retrospective medical records review. This study used 5 machine learning algorithms to predict the PE: deep neural network (DNN), logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), decision tree (DT), and ran ...[more]

PMID: 36035487

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Project description:Preeclampsia is one of the leading causes of maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality. Due to the lack of effective preventive measures, its prediction is essential to its prompt management. This study aimed to develop models using machine learning to predict late-onset preeclampsia using hospital electronic medical record data. The performance of the machine learning based models and models using conventional statistical methods were also compared. A total of 11,006 pregnant women who received antenatal care at Yonsei University Hospital were included. Maternal data were retrieved from electronic medical records during the early second trimester to 34 weeks. The prediction outcome was late-onset preeclampsia occurrence after 34 weeks' gestation. Pattern recognition and cluster analysis were used to select the parameters included in the prediction models. Logistic regression, decision tree model, naïve Bayes classification, support vector machine, random forest algorithm, and stochastic gradient boosting method were used to construct the prediction models. C-statistics was used to assess the performance of each model. The overall preeclampsia development rate was 4.7% (474 patients). Systolic blood pressure, serum blood urea nitrogen and creatinine levels, platelet counts, serum potassium level, white blood cell count, serum calcium level, and urinary protein were the most influential variables included in the prediction models. C-statistics for the decision tree model, naïve Bayes classification, support vector machine, random forest algorithm, stochastic gradient boosting method, and logistic regression models were 0.857, 0.776, 0.573, 0.894, 0.924, and 0.806, respectively. The stochastic gradient boosting model had the best prediction performance with an accuracy and false positive rate of 0.973 and 0.009, respectively. The combined use of maternal factors and common antenatal laboratory data of the early second trimester through early third trimester could effectively predict late-onset preeclampsia using machine learning algorithms. Future prospective studies are needed to verify the clinical applicability algorithms.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Preeclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction are placental dysfunction-related disorders (PDDs) that require a referral decision be made within a certain time period. An appropriate prediction model should be developed for these diseases. However, previous models did not demonstrate robust performances and/or they were developed from datasets with highly imbalanced classes. OBJECTIVE:In this study, we developed a predictive model of PDDs by machine learning that uses features at 24-37 weeks' gestation, including maternal characteristics, uterine artery (UtA) Doppler measures, soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase receptor-1 (sFlt-1), and placental growth factor (PlGF). METHODS:A public dataset was taken from a prospective cohort study that included pregnant women with PDDs (66/95, 69%) and a control group (29/95, 31%). Preliminary selection of features was based on a statistical analysis using SAS 9.4 (SAS Institute). We used Weka (Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis) 3.8.3 (The University of Waikato, Hamilton, NZ) to automatically select the best model using its optimization algorithm. We also manually selected the best of 23 white-box models. Models, including those from recent studies, were also compared by interval estimation of evaluation metrics. We used the Matthew correlation coefficient (MCC) as the main metric. It is not overoptimistic to evaluate the performance of a prediction model developed from a dataset with a class imbalance. Repeated 10-fold cross-validation was applied. RESULTS:The classification via regression model was chosen as the best model. Our model had a robust MCC (.93, 95% CI .87-1.00, vs .64, 95% CI .57-.71) and specificity (100%, 95% CI 100-100, vs 90%, 95% CI 90-90) compared to each metric of the best models from recent studies. The sensitivity of this model was not inferior (95%, 95% CI 91-100, vs 100%, 95% CI 92-100). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was also competitive (0.970, 95% CI 0.966-0.974, vs 0.987, 95% CI 0.980-0.994). Features in the best model were maternal weight, BMI, pulsatility index of the UtA, sFlt-1, and PlGF. The most important feature was the sFlt-1/PlGF ratio. This model used an M5P algorithm consisting of a decision tree and four linear models with different thresholds. Our study was also better than the best ones among recent studies in terms of the class balance and the size of the case class (66/95, 69%, vs 27/239, 11.3%). CONCLUSIONS:Our model had a robust predictive performance. It was also developed to deal with the problem of a class imbalance. In the context of clinical management, this model may improve maternal mortality and neonatal morbidity and reduce health care costs.

Project description:BackgroundPostpartum hemorrhage remains one of the largest causes of maternal morbidity and mortality in the United States.ObjectiveThe aim of this paper is to use machine learning techniques to identify patients at risk for postpartum hemorrhage at obstetric delivery.MethodsWomen aged 18 to 55 years delivering at a major academic center from July 2013 to October 2018 were included for analysis (N=30,867). A total of 497 variables were collected from the electronic medical record including the following: demographic information; obstetric, medical, surgical, and family history; vital signs; laboratory results; labor medication exposures; and delivery outcomes. Postpartum hemorrhage was defined as a blood loss of ≥1000 mL at the time of delivery, regardless of delivery method, with 2179 (7.1%) positive cases observed. Supervised learning with regression-, tree-, and kernel-based machine learning methods was used to create classification models based upon training (21,606/30,867, 70%) and validation (4630/30,867, 15%) cohorts. Models were tuned using feature selection algorithms and domain knowledge. An independent test cohort (4631/30,867, 15%) determined final performance by assessing for accuracy, area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC), and sensitivity for proper classification of postpartum hemorrhage. Separate models were created using all collected data versus models limited to data available prior to the second stage of labor or at the time of decision to proceed with cesarean delivery. Additional models examined patients by mode of delivery.ResultsGradient boosted decision trees achieved the best discrimination in the overall model. The model including all data mildly outperformed the second stage model (AUROC 0.979, 95% CI 0.971-0.986 vs AUROC 0.955, 95% CI 0.939-0.970). Optimal model accuracy was 98.1% with a sensitivity of 0.763 for positive prediction of postpartum hemorrhage. The second stage model achieved an accuracy of 98.0% with a sensitivity of 0.737. Other selected algorithms returned models that performed with decreased discrimination. Models stratified by mode of delivery achieved good to excellent discrimination but lacked the sensitivity necessary for clinical applicability.ConclusionsMachine learning methods can be used to identify women at risk for postpartum hemorrhage who may benefit from individualized preventative measures. Models limited to data available prior to delivery perform nearly as well as those with more complete data sets, supporting their potential utility in the clinical setting. Further work is necessary to create successful models based upon mode of delivery and to validate the findings of this study. An unbiased approach to hemorrhage risk prediction may be superior to human risk assessment and represents an area for future research.

Project description:BackgroundMajor adverse postoperative outcomes (APOs) can greatly affect mortality, hospital stay, care management and planning, and quality of life. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of five machine learning (ML) algorithms for predicting four major APOs after pediatric congenital heart surgery and their clinically meaningful model interpretations.MethodsBetween August 2014 and December 2021, 23,000 consecutive pediatric patients receiving congenital heart surgery were enrolled. Based on the split date of 1 January 2019, we selected 13,927 participants for the training cohort, and 9,073 participants for the testing cohort. Four predefined major APOs including low cardiac output syndrome (LCOS), pneumonia, renal failure, and deep venous thrombosis (DVT) were investigated. 39 clinical and laboratory features were inputted in five ML models: light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), logistic regression (LR), support vector machine, random forest, and CatBoost. The performance and interpretations of ML models were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP).ResultsIn the training cohort, CatBoost algorithms outperformed others with the mean AUCs of 0.908 for LCOS and 0.957 for renal failure, while LightGBM and LR achieved the best mean AUCs of 0.886 for pneumonia and 0.942 for DVT, respectively. In the testing cohort, the best-performing ML model for each major APOs with the following mean AUCs: LCOS (LightGBM), 0.893 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.884-0.895); pneumonia (LR), 0.929 (95% CI, 0.926-0.931); renal failure (LightGBM), 0.963 (95% CI, 0.947-0.979), and DVT (LightGBM), 0.970 (95% CI, 0.953-0.982). The performance of ML models using only clinical variables was slightly lower than those using combined data, with the mean AUCs of 0.873 for LCOS, 0.894 for pneumonia, 0.953 for renal failure, and 0.933 for DVT. The SHAP showed that mechanical ventilation time was the most important contributor of four major APOs.ConclusionsIn pediatric congenital heart surgery, the established ML model can accurately predict the risk of four major APOs, providing reliable interpretations for high-risk contributor identification and informed clinical decisions making.

Project description:Study objectivePostoperative respiratory failure is a major surgical complication and key quality metric. Existing prediction tools underperform, are limited to specific populations, and necessitate manual calculation. This limits their implementation. We aimed to create an improved, machine learning powered prediction tool with ideal characteristics for automated calculation.Design, setting, and patientsWe retrospectively reviewed 101,455 anesthetic procedures from 1/2018 to 6/2021. The primary outcome was the Standardized Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine consensus definition for postoperative respiratory failure. Secondary outcomes were respiratory quality metrics from the National Surgery Quality Improvement Sample, Society of Thoracic Surgeons, and CMS. We abstracted from the electronic health record 26 procedural and physiologic variables previously identified as respiratory failure risk factors. We randomly split the cohort and used the Random Forest method to predict the composite outcome in the training cohort. We coined this the RESPIRE model and measured its accuracy in the validation cohort using area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) analysis, among other measures, and compared this with ARISCAT and SPORC-1, two leading prediction tools. We compared performance in a validation cohort using score cut-offs determined in a separate test cohort.Main resultsThe RESPIRE model exhibited superior accuracy with an AUROC of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.92-0.95) compared to 0.82 for both ARISCAT and SPORC-1 (P-for-difference < 0.0001 for both). At comparable 80-90% sensitivities, RESPIRE had higher positive predictive value (11%, 95% CI: 10-12%) and lower false positive rate (12%, 95% CI: 12-13%) compared to 4% and 37% for both ARISCAT and SPORC-1. The RESPIRE model also better predicted the established quality metrics for postoperative respiratory failure.ConclusionsWe developed a general-purpose, machine learning powered prediction tool with superior performance for research and quality-based definitions of postoperative respiratory failure.

Dataset Information

Development of a prediction model on preeclampsia using machine learning-based method: a retrospective cohort study in China.

Publications

Development of a prediction model on preeclampsia using machine learning-based method: a retrospective cohort study in China.

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