Dataset Information

Multivariable Prediction Model for Futile Recanalization Therapies in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke.

ABSTRACT:

Background and objectives

Very poor outcome despite intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) and mechanical thrombectomy (MT) occurs in about 1 of 4 patients with ischemic stroke and is associated with a high logistic and economic burden. We aimed to develop and validate a multivariable prognostic model to identify futile recanalization therapies (FRT) in patients undergoing those therapies.

Materials and methods

Patients from a prospectively collected observational registry of a single academic stroke center treated with MT and/or IVT were included. The dataset was split into a training (N=1808, 80%) and internal validation (N=453, 20%) cohort. We used gradient boosted decision tree machine-learning models after k-NN imputation of 32 variables available at admission to predict FRT defined as modified Rankin-Scale (mRS) 5-6 at 3 months. We report feature importance, ability for discrimination, calibration and decision curve analysis.

Results

2261 patients with a median (IQR) age 75 years (64-83), 46% female, median NIHSS 9 (4-17), 34% IVT alone, 41% MT alone, 25% bridging were included. Overall 539 (24%) had FRT, more often in MT alone (34%) as compared to IVT alone (11%). Feature importance identified clinical variables (stroke severity, age, active cancer, prestroke disability), laboratory values (glucose, CRP, creatinine), imaging biomarkers (white matter hyperintensities) and onset-to-admission time as the most important predictors. The final model was discriminatory for predicting 3-month FRT (AUC 0.87, 95% CI 0.87-0.88) and had good calibration (Brier 0.12, 0.11-0.12). Overall performance was moderate (F1-score 0.63 ± 0.004) and decision curve analyses suggested higher mean net benefit at lower thresholds of treatment (up to 0.8).

Conclusions

This FRT prediction model can help inform shared decision making and identify the most relevant features in the emergency setting. While it might be particularly useful in low resource healthcare settings, incorporation of further multifaceted variables is necessary to further increase the predictive performance.

SUBMITTER: Meinel T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9519255 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Multivariable Prediction Model for Futile Recanalization Therapies in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke.

Meinel Thomas Raphael TR Lerch Christine C Fischer Urs U Beyeler Morin M Mujanovic Adnan A Kurmann Christoph C Siepen Bernhard B Scutelnic Adrian A Müller Madlaine M Goeldlin Martina M Belachew Nebiyat Filate NF Dobrocky Tomas T Gralla Jan J Seiffge David D Jung Simon S Arnold Marcel M Wiest Roland R Meier Raphael R Kaesmacher Johannes J

Neurology 20220905 10

<h4>Background and objectives</h4>Very poor outcome despite IV thrombolysis (IVT) and mechanical thrombectomy (MT) occurs in approximately 1 of 4 patients with ischemic stroke and is associated with a high logistic and economic burden. We aimed to develop and validate a multivariable prognostic model to identify futile recanalization therapies (FRTs) in patients undergoing those therapies.<h4>Methods</h4>Patients from a prospectively collected observational registry of a single academic stroke c ...[more]

PMID: 35803722

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundFutile recanalization (FR) continues to raise concern despite the success of endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) in acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Understanding the prevalence of FR and identifying associated factors are crucial for refining patient prognoses and optimizing management strategies.ObjectivesThis study aims to comprehensively assess the pooled prevalence of FR, explore the diverse factors connected with FR, and establish the association of FR with long-term clinical outcomes among AIS patients undergoing EVT.Materials and methodsIncorporating studies focusing on FR following EVT in AIS patients, we conducted a random-effect meta-analysis to assess the pooled prevalence and its association with various clinical and imaging risk factors linked to FR. Summary estimates were compiled and study heterogeneity was explored.ResultsOur comprehensive meta-analysis, involving 11,700 AIS patients undergoing EVT, revealed a significant pooled prevalence of FR at 51%, with a range of 48% to 54% (Effect Size [ES]: 51%; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 48-54%; z = 47.66; p < 0.001). Numerous clinical factors demonstrated robust correlations with FR, including atrial fibrillation (Odds Ratio [OR]: 1.39, 95% CI 1.22 1.59; p < 0.001), hypertension (OR 1.65, 95% CI 1.41 1.92; p < 0.001), diabetes mellitus (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.47 1.99; p < 0.001), previous stroke or transient ischemic attack (OR 1.298, 95% CI 1.06 1.59; p = 0.012), prior anticoagulant usage (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.08 1.63; p = 0.007), cardioembolic strokes (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.10 1.63; p = 0.003), and general anesthesia (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.35 1.74; p < 0.001). Conversely, FR exhibited reduced likelihoods of smoking (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.57 0.77; p < 0.001), good collaterals (OR 0.33, 95% CI 0.23 0.49; p < 0.001), male sex (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.77 0.97; p = 0.016), and intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.66 0.86; p < 0.001). FR was strongly associated with increasing age (standardized mean difference [SMD] 0.49, 95% CI 0.42 0.56; p < 0.0001), baseline systolic blood pressure (SMD 0.20, 95% CI 0.13 0.27; p < 0.001), baseline National Institute of Health Stroke Severity Score (SMD 0.75, 95% CI: 0.65 0.86; p < 0.001), onset-to-treatment time (SMD 0.217, 95% CI 0.13 0.30; p < 0.001), onset-to-recanalization time (SMD 0.38, 95% CI 0.19; 0.57; p < 0.001), and baseline blood glucose (SMD 0.31, 95% CI 0.22 0.41; p < 0.001), while displaying a negative association with reduced baseline Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) (SMD -0.37, 95% CI -0.46 -0.27; p < 0.001). Regarding clinical outcomes, FR was significantly associated with increased odds of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhages (OR 7.37, 95% CI 4.89 11.12; p < 0.001), hemorrhagic transformations (OR 2.98, 95% CI 2.37 3.75; p < 0.001), and 90-day mortality (OR 19.24, 95% CI 1.57 235.18; p = 0.021).ConclusionsThe substantial prevalence of FR, standing at approximately 51%, warrants clinical consideration. These findings underscore the complexity of FR in AIS patients and highlight the importance of tailoring management strategies based on individual risk factors and clinical profiles.

Project description:ImportanceThere is to date limited evidence that revascularization strategies are associated with improved functional outcome in children with acute ischemic stroke (AIS).ObjectivesTo report clinical outcomes and provide estimates of revascularization strategy safety and efficacy profiles of intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) and/or endovascular treatment (EVT) in children with AIS.Design, setting, and participantsThe KidClot multicenter nationwide cohort study retrospectively collected data of children (neonates excluded) with AIS and recanalization treatment between January 1, 2015, and May 31, 2018. Data analysis was performed from January 1, 2015, to May 31, 2019.ExposureIVT and/or EVT.Main outcomes and measuresPrimary outcome was day 90 favorable outcome (modified Rankin Scale [mRs] 0-2, with 0 indicating no symptoms and 6 indicating death). Secondary end points included 1-year favorable outcome (mRs, 0-2), mortality, and symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage. Other measures included the Pediatric National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (pedNIHSS), with pedNIHSS 0 indicating no symptoms, 1 to 4 corresponding to a minor stroke, 5 to 15 corresponding to a mild stroke, greater than 15 to 20: severe stroke, and the adult Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS), which provides segmental assessment of the vascular territory, with 1 point deducted from the initial score of 10 for every region involved (from 10 [no lesion] to 0 [maximum lesions]).ResultsOverall, 68 children were included in 30 centers (IVT [n = 44]; EVT [n = 40]; 44 boys [64.7%]; median [IQR] age, 11 [4-16] years; anterior circulation involvement, 57 [83.8%]). Median (IQR) pedNIHSS score at admission was 13 (7-19), higher in the EVT group at 16 (IQR, 10-20) vs 9 (6-17) in the IVT only group (P < .01). Median time from stroke onset to imaging was higher in the EVT group at 3 hours and 7 minutes (IQR, 2 hours and 3 minutes to 6 hours and 24 minutes) vs 2 hours and 39 minutes (IQR, 1 hour and 51 minutes to 4 hours and 13 minutes) (P = .04). Median admission ASPECTS score was 8 (IQR, 6-9). The main stroke etiologies were cardioembolic (21 [30.9%]) and focal cerebral arteriopathy (17 [25.0%]). Median (IQR) time from stroke onset to IVT was 3 hours and 30 minutes (IQR, 2 hours and 33 minutes to 4 hours and 28 minutes). In the EVT group, the rate of postprocedure successful reperfusion (≥modified Treatment in Cerebral Infarction 2b) was 80.0% (32 of 40). Persistent proximal arterial stenosis was more frequent in focal cerebral arteriopathy (P < .01). Death occurred in 3 patients (4.4%). Median pedNIHSS reduction at 24 hours was 4 (IQR, 0-9) points. Intracerebral hemorrhage occurred in 4 patients and symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage occurred in 1 patient, all in the EVT group. The median mRS was 2 (IQR, 0-3) at day 90 and 1 (IQR, 0-2) at 1 year, which was not significantly different between EVT and IVT only groups, although different in initial severity.Conclusions and relevanceThe findings of this cohort study suggest that use of EVT and/or IVT is safe in children with AIS.

Project description:BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE:Although onset-to-treatment time is associated with early clinical recovery in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients treated with intravenous tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), the effect of the timing of tPA-induced recanalization on functional outcomes remains debatable. METHODS:We conducted a multicenter, prospective observational cohort study to determine whether early (within 1-hour from tPA-bolus) complete or partial recanalization assessed during 2-hour real-time transcranial Doppler monitoring is associated with improved outcomes in patients with proximal occlusions. Outcome events included dramatic clinical recovery (DCR) within 2 and 24-hours from tPA-bolus, 3-month mortality, favorable functional outcome (FFO) and functional independence (FI) defined as modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores of 0-1 and 0-2 respectively. RESULTS:We enrolled 480 AIS patients (mean age 66±15 years, 60% men, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score 15). Patients with early recanalization (53%) had significantly (P<0.001) higher rates of DCR at 2-hour (54% vs. 10%) and 24-hour (63% vs. 22%), 3-month FFO (67% vs. 28%) and FI (81% vs. 39%). Three-month mortality rates (6% vs. 17%) and distribution of 3-month mRS scores were significantly lower in the early recanalization group. After adjusting for potential confounders, early recanalization was independently associated with higher odds of 3-month FFO (odds ratio [OR], 6.19; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.88 to 9.88) and lower likelihood of 3-month mortality (OR, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.17 to 0.67). Onset to treatment time correlated to the elapsed time between tPA-bolus and recanalization (unstandardized linear regression coefficient, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.19). CONCLUSIONS:Earlier tPA treatment after stroke onset is associated with faster tPA-induced recanalization. Earlier onset-to-recanalization time. RESULTS:in improved functional recovery and survival in AIS patients with proximal intracranial occlusions.

Dataset Information

Multivariable Prediction Model for Futile Recanalization Therapies in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke.

Background and objectives

Materials and methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Multivariable Prediction Model for Futile Recanalization Therapies in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets