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Development of forecast models for COVID-19 hospital admissions using anonymized and aggregated mobile network data.

ABSTRACT: Reliable forecast of COVID-19 hospital admissions in near-term horizons can help enable effective resource management which is vital in reducing pressure from healthcare services. The use of mobile network data has come to attention in response to COVID-19 pandemic leveraged on their ability in capturing people social behavior. Crucially, we show that there are latent features in irreversibly anonymized and aggregated mobile network data that carry useful information in relation to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus. We describe development of the forecast models using such features for prediction of COVID-19 hospital admissions in near-term horizons (21 days). In a case study, we verified the approach for two hospitals in Sweden, Sahlgrenska University Hospital and Södra Älvsborgs Hospital, working closely with the experts engaged in the hospital resource planning. Importantly, the results of the forecast models were used in year 2021 by logisticians at the hospitals as one of the main inputs for their decisions regarding resource management.

SUBMITTER: Taghia J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9588002 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development of forecast models for COVID-19 hospital admissions using anonymized and aggregated mobile network data.

Taghia Jalil J Kulyk Valentin V Ickin Selim S Folkesson Mats M Nyström Cecilia C Ȧgren Kristofer K Brezicka Thomas T Vingare Tore T Karlsson Julia J Fritzell Ingrid I Harlid Ralph R Palaszewski Bo B Kjellberg Magnus M Gustafsson Jörgen J

Scientific reports 20221022 1

Reliable forecast of COVID-19 hospital admissions in near-term horizons can help enable effective resource management which is vital in reducing pressure from healthcare services. The use of mobile network data has come to attention in response to COVID-19 pandemic leveraged on their ability in capturing people social behavior. Crucially, we show that there are latent features in irreversibly anonymized and aggregated mobile network data that carry useful information in relation to the spread of ...[more]

PMID: 36273022

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Project description:BackgroundObesity is a serious public health problem. Existing research has shown a strong association between obesity and an individual's diet and physical activity. If we extend such an association to the neighborhood level, information about the diet and physical activity of the residents of a neighborhood may improve the estimate of neighborhood-level obesity prevalence and help identify the neighborhoods that are more likely to suffer from obesity. However, it is challenging to measure neighborhood-level diet and physical activity through surveys and interviews, especially for a large geographic area.MethodsWe propose a method for deriving neighborhood-level diet and physical activity measurements from anonymized mobile phone location data, and examine the extent to which the derived measurements can enhance obesity estimation, in addition to the socioeconomic and demographic variables typically used in the literature. We conduct case studies in three different U.S. cities, which are New York City, Los Angeles, and Buffalo, using anonymized mobile phone location data from the company SafeGraph. We employ five different statistical and machine learning models to test the potential enhancement brought by the derived measurements for obesity estimation.ResultsWe find that it is feasible to derive neighborhood-level diet and physical activity measurements from anonymized mobile phone location data. The derived measurements provide only a small enhancement for obesity estimation, compared with using a comprehensive set of socioeconomic and demographic variables. However, using these derived measurements alone can achieve a moderate accuracy for obesity estimation, and they may provide a stronger enhancement when comprehensive socioeconomic and demographic data are not available (e.g., in some developing countries). From a methodological perspective, spatially explicit models overall perform better than non-spatial models for neighborhood-level obesity estimation.ConclusionsOur proposed method can be used for deriving neighborhood-level diet and physical activity measurements from anonymized mobile phone data. The derived measurements can enhance obesity estimation, and can be especially useful when comprehensive socioeconomic and demographic data are not available. In addition, these derived measurements can be used to study obesity-related health behaviors, such as visit frequency of neighborhood residents to fast-food restaurants, and to identify primary places contributing to obesity-related issues.

Dataset Information

Development of forecast models for COVID-19 hospital admissions using anonymized and aggregated mobile network data.

Publications

Development of forecast models for COVID-19 hospital admissions using anonymized and aggregated mobile network data.

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