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Genetically-informed prediction of short-term Parkinson's disease progression.

ABSTRACT: Parkinson's disease (PD) treatments modify disease symptoms but have not been shown to slow progression, characterized by gradual and varied motor and non-motor changes overtime. Variation in PD progression hampers clinical research, resulting in long and expensive clinical trials prone to failure. Development of models for short-term PD progression prediction could be useful for shortening the time required to detect disease-modifying drug effects in clinical studies. PD progressors were defined by an increase in MDS-UPDRS scores at 12-, 24-, and 36-months post-baseline. Using only baseline features, PD progression was separately predicted across all timepoints and MDS-UPDRS subparts in independent, optimized, XGBoost models. These predictions plus baseline features were combined into a meta-predictor for 12-month MDS UPDRS Total progression. Data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) were used for training with independent testing on the Parkinson's Disease Biomarkers Program (PDBP) cohort. 12-month PD total progression was predicted with an F-measure 0.77, ROC AUC of 0.77, and PR AUC of 0.76 when tested on a hold-out PPMI set. When tested on PDBP we achieve a F-measure 0.75, ROC AUC of 0.74, and PR AUC of 0.73. Exclusion of genetic predictors led to the greatest loss in predictive accuracy; ROC AUC of 0.66, PR AUC of 0.66-0.68 for both PPMI and PDBP testing. Short-term PD progression can be predicted with a combination of survey-based, neuroimaging, physician examination, and genetic predictors. Dissection of the interplay between genetic risk, motor symptoms, non-motor symptoms, and longer-term expected rates of progression enable generalizable predictions.

SUBMITTER: Sadaei HJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9613892 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Genetically-informed prediction of short-term Parkinson's disease progression.

Sadaei Hossein J HJ Cordova-Palomera Aldo A Lee Jonghun J Padmanabhan Jaya J Chen Shang-Fu SF Wineinger Nathan E NE Dias Raquel R Prilutsky Daria D Szalma Sandor S Torkamani Ali A

NPJ Parkinson's disease 20221028 1

Parkinson's disease (PD) treatments modify disease symptoms but have not been shown to slow progression, characterized by gradual and varied motor and non-motor changes overtime. Variation in PD progression hampers clinical research, resulting in long and expensive clinical trials prone to failure. Development of models for short-term PD progression prediction could be useful for shortening the time required to detect disease-modifying drug effects in clinical studies. PD progressors were define ...[more]

PMID: 36302787

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Project description:Individuals with mutation in the lysosomal enzyme glucocerebrosidase (GBA) gene are at significantly high risk of developing Parkinson's disease with cognitive deficit. We examined whether visual short-term memory impairments, long associated with patients with Parkinson's disease, are also present in GBA-positive individuals-both with and without Parkinson's disease. Precision of visual working memory was measured using a serial order task in which participants observed four bars, each of a different colour and orientation, presented sequentially at screen centre. Afterwards, they were asked to adjust a coloured probe bar's orientation to match the orientation of the bar of the same colour in the sequence. An additional attentional 'filtering' condition tested patients' ability to selectively encode one of the four bars while ignoring the others. A sensorimotor task using the same stimuli controlled for perceptual and motor factors. There was a significant deficit in memory precision in GBA-positive individuals-with or without Parkinson's disease-as well as GBA-negative patients with Parkinson's disease, compared to healthy controls. Worst recall was observed in GBA-positive cases with Parkinson's disease. Although all groups were impaired in visual short-term memory, there was a double dissociation between sources of error associated with GBA mutation and Parkinson's disease. The deficit observed in GBA-positive individuals, regardless of whether they had Parkinson's disease, was explained by a systematic increase in interference from features of other items in memory: misbinding errors. In contrast, impairments in patients with Parkinson's disease, regardless of GBA status, was explained by increased random responses. Individuals who were GBA-positive and also had Parkinson's disease suffered from both types of error, demonstrating the worst performance. These findings provide evidence for dissociable signature deficits within the domain of visual short-term memory associated with GBA mutation and with Parkinson's disease. Identification of the specific pattern of cognitive impairment in GBA mutation versus Parkinson's disease is potentially important as it might help to identify individuals at risk of developing Parkinson's disease.

Dataset Information

Genetically-informed prediction of short-term Parkinson's disease progression.

Publications

Genetically-informed prediction of short-term Parkinson's disease progression.

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