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The impact of phosphorus on projected Sub-Saharan Africa food security futures.

ABSTRACT: Sub-Saharan Africa must urgently improve food security. Phosphorus availability is one of the major barriers to this due to low historical agricultural use. Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) indicate that only a sustainable (SSP1) or a fossil fuelled future (SSP5) can improve food security (in terms of price, availability, and risk of hunger) whilst nationalistic (SSP3) and unequal (SSP4) pathways worsen food security. Furthermore, sustainable SSP1 requires limited cropland expansion and low phosphorus use whilst the nationalistic SSP3 is as environmentally damaging as the fossil fuelled pathway. The middle of the road future (SSP2) maintains today's inadequate food security levels only by using approximately 440 million tonnes of phosphate rock. Whilst this is within the current global reserve estimates the market price alone for a commonly used fertiliser (DAP) would cost US$ 130 ± 25 billion for agriculture over the period 2020 to 2050 and the farmgate price could be two to five times higher due to additional costs (e.g. transport, taxation etc.). Thus, to improve food security, economic growth within a sustainability context (SSP1) and the avoidance of nationalist ideology (SSP3) should be prioritised.

SUBMITTER: Magnone D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9617890 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The impact of phosphorus on projected Sub-Saharan Africa food security futures.

Magnone Daniel D Niasar Vahid J VJ Bouwman Alexander F AF Beusen Arthur H W AHW van der Zee Sjoerd E A T M SEATM Sattari Sheida Z SZ

Nature communications 20221029 1

Sub-Saharan Africa must urgently improve food security. Phosphorus availability is one of the major barriers to this due to low historical agricultural use. Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) indicate that only a sustainable (SSP1) or a fossil fuelled future (SSP5) can improve food security (in terms of price, availability, and risk of hunger) whilst nationalistic (SSP3) and unequal (SSP4) pathways worsen food security. Furthermore, sustainable SSP1 requires limited cropland expansion and low ...[more]

PMID: 36309491

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Dataset Information

The impact of phosphorus on projected Sub-Saharan Africa food security futures.

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The impact of phosphorus on projected Sub-Saharan Africa food security futures.

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