Dataset Information

Predicting stroke in heart failure and reduced ejection fraction without atrial fibrillation.

ABSTRACT:

Aims

Patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) are at significant risk of stroke. Anticoagulation reduces this risk in patients with and without atrial fibrillation (AF), but the risk-to-benefit balance in the latter group, overall, is not favourable. Identification of patients with HFrEF, without AF, at the highest risk of stroke may allow targeted and safer use of prophylactic anticoagulant therapy.

Methods and results

In a pooled patient-level cohort of the PARADIGM-HF, ATMOSPHERE, and DAPA-HF trials, a previously derived simple risk model for stroke, consisting of three variables (history of prior stroke, insulin-treated diabetes, and plasma N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide level), was validated. Of the 20 159 patients included, 12 751 patients did not have AF at baseline. Among patients without AF, 346 (2.7%) experienced a stroke over a median follow up of 2.0 years (rate 11.7 per 1000 patient-years). The risk for stroke increased with increasing risk score: fourth quintile hazard ratio (HR) 2.35 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.60-3.45]; fifth quintile HR 3.73 (95% CI 2.58-5.38), with the first quintile as reference. For patients in the top quintile, the rate of stroke was 21.2 per 1000 patient-years, similar to participants with AF not receiving anticoagulation (20.1 per 1000 patient-years). Model discrimination was good with a C-index of 0.84 (0.75-0.91).

Conclusion

It is possible to identify a subset of HFrEF patients without AF with a stroke-risk equivalent to that of patients with AF who are not anticoagulated. In these patients, the risk-to-benefit balance might justify the use of prophylactic anticoagulation, but this hypothesis needs to be tested prospectively.

SUBMITTER: Kondo T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9637422 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Predicting stroke in heart failure and reduced ejection fraction without atrial fibrillation.

Kondo Toru T Abdul-Rahim Azmil H AH Talebi Atefeh A Abraham William T WT Desai Akshay S AS Dickstein Kenneth K Inzucchi Silvio E SE Køber Lars L Kosiborod Mikhail N MN Martinez Felipe A FA Packer Milton M Petrie Mark M Ponikowski Piotr P Rouleau Jean L JL Sabatine Marc S MS Swedberg Karl K Zile Michael R MR Solomon Scott D SD Jhund Pardeep S PS McMurray John J V JJV

European heart journal 20221101 42

<h4>Aims</h4>Patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) are at significant risk of stroke. Anticoagulation reduces this risk in patients with and without atrial fibrillation (AF), but the risk-to-benefit balance in the latter group, overall, is not favourable. Identification of patients with HFrEF, without AF, at the highest risk of stroke may allow targeted and safer use of prophylactic anticoagulant therapy.<h4>Methods and results</h4>In a pooled patient-level cohort of ...[more]

PMID: 36017729

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Project description:AimsAtrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of heart failure (HF); however, little focus has been placed on the prevention of HF in patients with AF. Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is an established echocardiographic parameter in HF patients. We sought to investigate the association of LVEF with HF events in AF patients without pre-existing HF.Methods and resultsThe Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of AF patients in Fushimi-ku, Japan. In this analysis, we excluded patients with pre-existing HF (defined as having one of the following: prior HF hospitalization, New York Heart Association class ≥ 2 in association with heart disease, or LVEF < 40%). Among 3233 AF patients without pre-existing HF, we investigated 2459 patients with the data of LVEF at enrolment. We divided the patients into three groups stratified by LVEF [mildly reduced LVEF (40-49%), below normal LVEF (50-59%), and normal LVEF (≥60%)] and compared the backgrounds and incidence of HF hospitalization between the groups. Of 2459 patients [mean age: 72.4 ± 10.5 years, female: 917 (37%), paroxysmal AF: 1405 (57%), and mean CHA2 DS2 -VASc score: 3.0 ± 1.6], the mean LVEF was 66 ± 8% [mildly reduced LVEF: 114 patients (5%), below normal LVEF: 300 patients (12%), and normal LVEF: 2045 patients (83%)]. Patients with lower LVEF demonstrated lower prevalence of female and paroxysmal AF (both P < 0.01), but age and CHA2 DS2 -VASc score were comparable between the three groups (both P > 0.05). During the median follow-up period of 6.0 years, 255 patients (10%) were hospitalized for HF (annual incidence: 1.9% per person-year). Multivariable Cox regression analysis demonstrated that lower LVEF strata were independently associated with the risk of HF [mildly reduced LVEF (40-49%): hazard ratio = 2.98, 95% confidence interval = 1.99-4.45 and below normal LVEF (50-59%): hazard ratio = 2.01, 95% confidence interval = 1.44-2.82, compared with normal LVEF (≥60%)] after adjustment by age, sex, type of AF, and CHA2 DS2 -VASc score. LVEF < 60% was significantly associated with the higher risk of HF hospitalization across all major subgroups without significant interaction (P for interaction; all P > 0.05). LVEF had an independent and incremental prognostic value for HF hospitalization in addition to natriuretic peptide levels in AF patients without pre-existing HF.ConclusionsLower LVEF was significantly associated with the higher incidence of HF hospitalization in AF patients without pre-existing HF, leading to the future risk stratification for and prevention of incident HF in AF patients.

Project description:BackgroundStroke and thromboembolism (TE) are significant complications in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF). The impact of ejection fraction status on these risks remains unclear. This study aims to compare the risk of stroke and TE in patients with AF and HF with preserved (HFpEF) or reduced (HFrEF) ejection fraction.MethodsLiterature search of PubMed, Embase, and Scopus databases was done for studies in adult (20 years or more) population of AF patients. Included studies had reported on the incidences of stroke and/or TE in patients with AF and associated HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Cohort (prospective and retrospective), case-control studies, and studies that were based on secondary analysis of data from a trial were eligible for inclusion. Methodological quality was assessed using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale (NOS). Pooled hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were reported. Exploratory analysis was conducted based on the different cut-offs used to define HFrEF and HFpEF.ResultsTwenty studies were analyzed. In the overall analysis, HFrEF in AF patients was associated with a significantly reduced risk of stroke and systemic TE (HR 0.88, 95% CI: 0.81, 0.96; n = 20, I2 = 86.6%), compared to HFpEF. However, most studies showed comparable risk of stroke among the two groups of patients except for two studies that had documented significantly reduced risk. Upon doing the sensitivity analysis by excluding these two studies, we found similar risk among the two group of subjects and with no heterogeneity (HR 1.01, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.03; n = 18, I2 = 0.0%). Exploratory analysis also showed that the risk of stroke and systemic thromboembolism was similar between those with HFpEF and HFrEF.ConclusionThe findings suggest that there is no significantly different risk of stroke and systemic thromboembolism in cases of AF with associated HFpEF or HFrEF. The finding does not support integration of left ventricular ejection fraction into stroke risk assessments.

Dataset Information

Predicting stroke in heart failure and reduced ejection fraction without atrial fibrillation.

Aims

Methods and results

Conclusion

Publications

Predicting stroke in heart failure and reduced ejection fraction without atrial fibrillation.

Similar Datasets

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