Spatial Co-Clustering of Tuberculosis and HIV in Ethiopia
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PROVIDER: S-EPMC9680430 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Tuberculosis (TB) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are the leading causes of infectious-disease-related deaths in Ethiopia, but little is known about their spatial distribution across the country. The aim of this study was to investigate the spatial patterns of TB and HIV co-infection in Ethiopia at the district level. METHODS:We conducted an ecological study using TB and HIV data reported from all regions of Ethiopia through the national Health Management Information System (HMIS), between June 2015 and June 2017. Spatial clustering was assessed using Moran's I statistic and Getis-Ord statistic. Spatial binomial regression models were constructed separately for the prevalence of TB among people living with HIV and for the prevalence of HIV among TB patients, with and without spatial components using a Bayesian approach. RESULTS:A total of 1,830,880 HIV and 192,359 TB patients were included in the analysis. The prevalence of HIV among TB patients was 7.34%; hotspots were observed in districts located in Amhara, Afar, and Gambela regions, and cold spots were observed in Oromiya and Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People (SNNP) regions. The prevalence of TB among people living with HIV varied from 0.7% in Oromia region to 14.5% in Afar region. Hotspots of TB prevalence among people living with HIV were observed in districts located in Gambela, Afar, Somali, and Oromiya regions; whereas the cold spots were observed in districts located in Amhara and Tigray regions. The ecological-level factors associated with the prevalence of TB among people living with HIV were low wealth index (OR: 1.49; 95% CrI: 1.05, 2.05), low adult literacy rate (OR: 0.67; 95% CrI: 0.46, 0.94), and distance to an international border (OR: 0.61; 95% CrI: 0.40, 0.91). The factors associated with the prevalence of HIV among TB patients were poor health care access (OR: 0.76; 95% CrI: 0.59, 0.95), low wealth index (OR: 1.31; 95% CrI: 1.01, 1.67), and low adult literacy rate (OR: 1.37; 95% CrI: 1.03, 1.78). CONCLUSION:Our study provides evidence for geographic clustering of TB/HIV co-infection in Ethiopia. Health care access, proximity to international borders, and demographic factors such as low wealth index and adult literacy were significantly associated with the prevalence of TB/HIV co-infection.
| S-EPMC6894814 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) remains a major health problem worldwide and in Ethiopia. This study aimed to investigate the spatial distributions of notified TB over the whole territory of Ethiopia and to quantify the role of health care access, environmental, socio-demographic, and behavioural factors associated with the clustering of TB.MethodsA spatial analysis was conducted using national TB data reported between June 2016 and June 2017 in Ethiopia. Spatial clustering of TB was explored using Moran's I statistic and the local indicator of spatial autocorrelation (LISA). A multivariate Poisson regression model was developed with a conditional autoregressive (CAR) prior structure and with posterior parameters estimated using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation with Gibbs sampling to investigate the drivers of the clustering.ResultA total of 120,149 TB cases were reported from 745 districts in Ethiopia during the study period; 41,343 (34%) were bacteriologically confirmed new pulmonary TB and 33,997 (28%) were clinically diagnosed, new, smear-negative pulmonary TB patients. The nationwide annual incidence rate of notified TB was 112 per 100,000 population. The highest incidence was observed in three city administrative regions, namely Dire Dewa (348 cases per 100,000 population), Addis Ababa (262 per 100,000 population) and Harari (206 per 100,000 population), and the lowest incidence was observed in Somali region (51 per 100,000 population). High-high spatial clustering of notified TB was detected at Humera, Gog, and Surima district, and low-low clustering was detected in some districts located in the Somali region. Poor health care access (IRR = 0.78; 95%CI: 0.66, 0.90) and good knowledge about TB (IRR = 0.84; 95%CI: 0.73, 0.96) were negatively associated with the incidence of notified TB.ConclusionSubstantial spatial clustering of notified TB was detected at region, zone and district level in Ethiopia. Health care access and knowledge about TB was associated with incidence of TB. This study may provide policy makers target hotspot areas, where national control programs could be implemented more efficiently for the prevention and control of TB, and to address potential under-reporting in poor access areas.
| S-EPMC6688824 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionSpatial targeting is advocated as an effective method that contributes for achieving tuberculosis control in high-burden countries. However, there is a paucity of studies clarifying the spatial nature of the disease in these countries. This study aims to identify the location, size and risk of purely spatial and space-time clusters for high occurrence of tuberculosis in Gurage Zone, Southern Ethiopia during 2007 to 2016.Materials and methodsA total of 15,805 patient data that were retrieved from unit TB registers were included in the final analyses. The spatial and space-time cluster analyses were performed using the global Moran's I, Getis-Ord [Formula: see text] and Kulldorff's scan statistics.ResultsEleven purely spatial and three space-time clusters were detected (P <0.001).The clusters were concentrated in border areas of the Gurage Zone. There were considerable spatial variations in the risk of tuberculosis by year during the study period.ConclusionsThis study showed that tuberculosis clusters were mainly concentrated at border areas of the Gurage Zone during the study period, suggesting that there has been sustained transmission of the disease within these locations. The findings may help intensify the implementation of tuberculosis control activities in these locations. Further study is warranted to explore the roles of various ecological factors on the observed spatial distribution of tuberculosis.
| S-EPMC5988276 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTuberculosis remains a serious public health concern globally. The enormous social, economic, and health impacts of the diseases are attributed to the lack of updated data on the prevalence, geospatial distribution, population structures, and genotypic variants of the circulating M. tuberculosis.MethodsStructured questionnaire, mycobacterial culture, and standard 24-Mycobacterial Interspersed Repeated Units-Variable Number Tandem Repeats (MIRU-VNTR) were employed to collect sociodemographic characters, residence linked information, and genotype the isolates. The retrospective discrete Bernoulli model was used to identify the hot spot districts of sputum smear positivity, and Web-based Miru-VNTRPlus were used for the identification of lineages and sublineages.ResultsOut of 832 presumptive pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) suspects, 119 (14.3%) were smear-positive. In the multivariate binary logistic model, PTB suspected patients in the age groups of 7-25 and 25-34 and those from rural residents were 4.53 (AOR = 4.53; 95% CI 2.25-9.13), 3.00 (AOR = 3.00; 95% CI 1.41-6.35) and 1.65 (AOR = 1.65; 95% CI 1.01-2.70) times at higher risk of turning smear-positive. Eleven (47.8%) districts of Arsi Zone were shown to have a high rate of clustering (RR = 2.27; 95% CI 1.62-3.2) of smear-positive PTB. Of 72 isolates queried for the lineage assignment, 59 (81.9%) were classified into the previously known lineages and 13 (18.1%) were not assigned to any known lineages. Overall, 42 (58.3%) belong to M. tuberculosis lineage 4 (Euro-American), 16 (22.2%) M. tuberculosis lineage 3 (Delhi/CAS), and 1 (1.4%) M. tuberculosis Lineage 1 (Indo-Oceanic/ East Africa Indian). Further classification to the sublineage indicates that the predominant lineage was Delhi/CAS comprising 16 (22.2%) isolates followed by 15 (20.8%) isolates belonging to Haarlem. The remaining isolates were distributed as 13 (18.1%) TUR, 6 (8.3%) LAM, 4 (5.5%) URAL, 4 (4.5%) NEW-1 and 1 (1.4%) EAI.ConclusionOur study showed higher smear-positive results among PTB suspected patients and remarkable spatial variation across districts of Arsi Zone in smear-positive PTB. This information together with the genotypic features could be used as input for the efforts of designing control strategies.
| S-EPMC8244181 | biostudies-literature
Project description:While bacille-calmette-guerin (BCG) vaccination is one of the recommended strategies for preventing tuberculosis (TB), its coverage is low in several countries, including Ethiopia. This study investigated the spatial co-distribution and drivers of TB prevalence and low BCG coverage in Ethiopia. This ecological study was conducted using data from a national TB prevalence survey and the Ethiopian demographic and health survey (EDHS) to map the spatial co-distribution of BCG vaccination coverage and TB prevalence. A Bayesian geostatistical model was built to identify the drivers for the spatial distribution of TB prevalence and low BCG vaccination coverage. BCG vaccination coverage was defined as the number of children who received the vaccine divided by the total number of children born within five years preceding the EDHS surveys. Parameter estimation was done using binary logistic regression. Prediction maps for the co-distribution of high TB prevalence and low BCG vaccination coverage were created by overlying spatial prediction surfaces of the two outcomes. Posterior means and a 95% Bayesian credible interval (CrI) were used to summarize the parameters of the model. The national prevalence was 0.40% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.34%, 0.47%) for TB and 47% (95% CI 46%, 48%) for vaccination coverage. Substantial spatial variation in TB prevalence and low BCG coverage was observed at a regional and local level, particularly in border areas of the country, including the Somali, Afar, and Oromia regions. Approximately 58% of the pixels (i.e., geographical area or spatial units) with high TB prevalence exhibited low BCG coverage in the same location. While travel time to cities (Mean = 0.28, 95% BCI: 0.15, 0.41) and distance to health facilities (Mean = 0.43, 95% CI 0.22, 0.63), were positively associated, population density (Mean = -0.04, 95% BCI -0.05, -0.02) was negatively associated, with the proportion of unvaccinated children for BCG indicating areas near health facilities and cities have better BCG coverage. However, there were no significant predictors for TB prevalence. Substantial spatial co-distribution between high TB prevalence and low BCG coverage was observed in some parts of the country, indicating that there are areas where the TB burden is not being adequately managed through the provision of vaccines in Ethiopia. Scaling up BCG vaccination coverage and TB diagnosis and treatment through improving access to health services in border regions such as Somalia and Afar would be important to reduce the prevalence of TB in Ethiopia.
| S-EPMC11685876 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) remains a key health menace in Ethiopia and its districts. This study aimed to assess the spatial-temporal clustering of notified pulmonary TB (PTB) cases in East Gojjam Zone, Northwest Ethiopia.MethodsA retrospective study was conducted among all PTB cases reported from 2013-2019. Case notification rates (CNRs) of PTB cases at Kebele (the lowest administrative unit), woreda, and zone levels were estimated. The PTB clustering was done using global Moran's I statistics on Arc GIS 10.6. We used Kulldorff SaTScan 9.6 with a discrete Poisson model to identify statistically significant spatial-temporal clustering of PTB cases at Kebele level. Similarly, a negative binomial regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with the incidence of PTB cases at kebele level.ResultsA total of 5340 (52%) smear-positive and 4928 (48%) smear-negative PTB cases were analyzed. The overall mean CNR of PTB cases at zone, woreda and Kebele levels were 58(47-69), 82(56-204), and 69(36-347) per 100,000 population, respectively. The purely spatial cluster analysis identified eight most likely clusters (one for overall and one per year for seven reporting years) and 47 secondary clusters. Similarly, the space-time scan analysis identified one most likely and seven secondary clusters. The purely temporal analysis also detected one most likely cluster from 2013-2015. Rural residence, distance from the nearest health facility, and poor TB service readiness were factors (p-value <0.05) to PTB incidence at kebele level.ConclusionThe distribution of PTB cases was clustered. The PTB CNR was low and showed a decreasing trend during the reporting periods. Rural residence, distance from the health facilities, and poor facility readiness were factors of PTB incidence. Improving accessibility and readiness of health facilities mainly to rural and hotspot areas is vital to increase case detection and reduce TB transmission.
| S-EPMC7810325 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The co-epidemics of HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis (TB) outbreak is one of a serious disease in Ethiopia that demands integrative approaches to combat its transmission. In contrast, epidemiological co-infection models often considered a single latent case and recovered individuals with TB. To bridge this gap, we presented a new optimal HIV-TB co-infection model that considers both high risk and low risk latent TB cases with taking into account preventive efforts of both HIV and TB diseases, case finding for TB and HIV/AIDS treatment. This study aimed to develop optimal HIV/AIDS-TB co-infection mathematical model to explore the best cost-effective measure to mitigate the disease burden. The model is analysed analytically by firstly segregating TB and HIV only sub models followed by the full TB-HIV co-infection model. The Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) and Endemic Equilibrium (EE) points are found and the basic reproduction number R0 is obtained using the next generation matrix method (NGM). Based on the threshold value R0, the stabilities of equilibria for each sub-model are analysed. The DFE point is locally asymptotically stable when R0 < 1 and unstable when R0 > 1. The EE point is also asymptotically stable when R0 > 1 and does not exist otherwise. At R0 = 1, the existence of backward bifurcation phenomena is discussed. To curtail the cost and disease fatality, an optimal control model is formulated via time based controlling efforts. The optimal mathematical model is analysed both analytically and numerically. The numerical results are presented for two or more control measures at a time. In addition, the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio(ICER) has identified the best strategy which is crucial in limited resource. Hence, the model outcomes illustrated that applying HIV/AIDS prevention efforts and TB case finding concurrently is the most cost-effective strategy to offer substantial relief from the burden of the pandemic in the community. All results found in this study have significant public health lessons. We anticipated that the results will notify evidence based approaches to control the disease. Thus, this study will aids in the fight against HIV/AIDS, TB, and their co-infection policy-makers and other concerned organizations.
| S-EPMC11630616 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Extrapulmonary Tuberculosis (EPTB) and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection are interrelated as a result of immune depression. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex isolates and the burden of HIV co-infection among EPTB suspected patients.An institution based cross-sectional study was conducted among EPTB suspected patients at the University of Gondar Hospital. Socio-demographic characteristics and other clinical data were collected using a pretested questionnaire. GeneXpert MTB/RIF assay was performed to diagnosis Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex and Rifampicin resistance. All samples were also investigated by cytology and culture. The HIV statuses of all patients were screened initially by KHB, and all positive cases were further re-tested by STAT-pack. Data was analyzed using SPSS version 20 computer software and a P-value of < 0.05 was taken as statistically significant.A total of 141 extrapulmonary suspected patients were enrolled in this study. The overall prevalence of culture confirmed extrapulmonary tuberculosis infection was 29.8%, but the GeneXpert result showed a 26.2% prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex infection. The 78.4% prevalence of extrapulmonary tuberculosis infection was found to be higher among the adult population. The prevalence of HIV infection among EPTB suspected patients was 14.1%, while it was 32.4% among GeneXpert-confirmed extrapulmonary TB cases (12/37). Tuberculosis lymphadenitis was the predominant (78.4%) type of EPTB infection followed by tuberculosis cold abscess (10.7%). Adult hood, previous history of contact with known pulmonary tuberculosis patients, and HIV co-infection showed a statistically significant association with extrapulmonary tuberculosis infection (P<0.013).The prevalence of culture confirmed-EPTB infection was high, and a higher EPTB-HIV co-infection was also observed.
| S-EPMC4780813 | biostudies-other
Project description:BACKGROUND:Globally, by the end of 2018, 37.9 million people were living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Sub-Saharan Africa carries the highest burden with an estimated 71% of the global total. In Ethiopia, an estimated 715 404 people were living with HIV in 2015 and this increased to 722 248 in 2017. This study was to explore the trends and spatial distributions of HIV cases in Ethiopia. METHODS:In this study, we explored the spatial and temporal distribution of persons living with HIV in Ethiopia using data from 2005, 2011, and 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys (EDHS). Geographic information system (Getis-Ord Gi* statistics) and spatial scan statistics (SaTScan) were used for exploratory and confirmatory spatial analyses respectively. RESULTS:The overall prevalence of HIV in Ethiopia unveiled inconsistent trends, with the majority of areas showing decreasing trends. Hot spot clusters exhibited in all the three surveys, which include areas where Amhara, Afar and Tigray regions share neighbourhoods. In 2005 regionally, Gambella, Addis Ababa, and Harari had the highest prevalence at 6.0, 4.7 and 3.5%, respectively. While in the 2016 survey the highest prevalence (4.8%) was observed in Gambella regional state followed by Addis Ababa (3.4%). CONCLUSIONS:The distribution of HIV infection in Ethiopia is not random in all the three EDHS surveys. High clusters of HIV cases were consistently observed in Addis Ababa and neighbouring areas of the Afar Tigray and Amhara regional states and central Oromia. This analysis revealed that there are still areas which need studying with respect to the epidemic of HIV. In this regard Addis Ababa, certain areas of Amhara regional state, large areas of Afar region and central Oromia require special attention.
| S-EPMC6796490 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTuberculosis is the second leading cause of death from an infectious disease worldwide, next to HIV. Hence, initiating and determining the national tuberculosis treatment program and outcome is crucial. However, the childhood tuberculosis treatment outcome in Ethiopia was not investigated.ObjectiveThis study determined the pooled estimate of childhood tuberculosis treatment outcome and its association with HIV co-infection.MethodsPubMed, Google Scholar, Web of Science, reference lists of included studies, and Ethiopian institutional research repositories were used to retrieve all available studies. Searching was limited to the studies that had been conducted in Ethiopia and published in the English language. In this study, observational studies, including cohort, cross-sectional, and case-control studies, were included. The estimate of childhood tuberculosis treatment outcome was determined using a weighted inverse variance random-effects model. The overall variation between studies was checked by the heterogeneity test (I 2). The Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) quality appraisal criteria were used for quality assessment of the studies. The summary estimates were presented with forest plots and tables. Publication bias was also checked with the funnel plot and Egger's regression test. The outcome measures were successful and unsuccessful treatment outcomes. Successful treatment outcomes are defined as patients who are cured and treatment completed, whereas, an unsuccessful treatment outcome means those patients with defaulter, failure, and death treatment outcomes.ResultTo estimate the overall pooled estimate of successful treatment outcome, 6 studies with 5389 participants were considered. Consequently, the overall pooled estimate of successful treatment outcome was 79.62% (95% CI 73.22, 86.02) of which 72.44% was treatment completed. On the other hand, unsuccessful treatment outcomes, including treatment failure, defaulter, and death, were 0.15%, 5.36%, and 3.54%, respectively. Moreover, this study found that HIV co-infection was significantly associated with childhood tuberculosis treatment outcomes. Poor treatment outcome was higher among children with HIV co-infection with an odds ratio of 3.15 (95% CI 1.67, 5.94) compared to that of HIV-negative children.ConclusionThe summary estimate of successful childhood tuberculosis treatment outcome was low compared to the threshold suggested by the World Health Organization. HIV co-infection is significantly associated with poor treatment outcome of childhood tuberculosis. Therefore, special attention is better to be given to children infected with HIV. Moreover, adherence to anti-TB has to be strengthened.Trial registrationThe protocol has been registered in PROSPERO with a registration number of CRD42018110570.
| S-EPMC7027074 | biostudies-literature