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An evaluation of the Paycheck Protection Program using administrative payroll microdata☆


ABSTRACT: The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), a principal element of the fiscal stimulus enacted by Congress in response to the COVID-19 economic shock, was intended to assist small businesses to maintain employment and wages during the crisis, as well as cover other expenses. We use high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP—one of the world’s largest payroll processing firms—to estimate the causal effect of the PPP on the evolution of employment at PPP-eligible firms relative to PPP-ineligible firms, where eligibility is determined by industry-specific firm-size cutoffs. Our estimates indicate that the PPP boosted employment at eligible firms by between 2 percent to 5 percent at its peak effect around mid-May 2020. The boost to employment waned thereafter and ranged from no effect to a 3 percent boost at the end of 2020. Our estimates imply that employers retained an additional 3.6 million jobs as of mid-May 2020, and 1.4 million jobs at the end of 2020, as a consequence of PPP. The estimated cost per year of employment retained was

SUBMITTER: Autor D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9757653 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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