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COVID-19 economic impacts in perspective: A comparison to recent U.S. disasters.

ABSTRACT: This paper places the COVID-19 pandemic into perspective by comparing it to other recent disasters in terms of impacts on the macroeconomy of the U.S. We present a short summary of advances in the state-of-the-art of economic consequence analysis, as well as estimates this approach yields on economic impacts of 9/11, a variety of natural disasters, the Great Recession, and COVID-19. The prevention of these negative impacts represents the benefits of various types of risk management tactics and strategies. In light of the enormously greater economic impact of COVID-19 as compared to natural and man-made disasters, it is reasonable to question whether adequate investments are being made to prevent future pandemics.

SUBMITTER: Rose A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9764161 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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COVID-19 economic impacts in perspective: A comparison to recent U.S. disasters.

Rose Adam A

International journal of disaster risk reduction : IJDRR 20210508

This paper places the COVID-19 pandemic into perspective by comparing it to other recent disasters in terms of impacts on the macroeconomy of the U.S. We present a short summary of advances in the state-of-the-art of economic consequence analysis, as well as estimates this approach yields on economic impacts of 9/11, a variety of natural disasters, the Great Recession, and COVID-19. The prevention of these negative impacts represents the benefits of various types of risk management tactics and s ...[more]

PMID: 36570630

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Project description:In this work, we use observations and experimental emissions in a version of NOAA's National Air Quality Forecasting Capability to show that the COVID-19 economic slowdown led to disproportionate impacts on near-surface ozone concentrations across the contiguous U.S. (CONUS). The data-fusion methodology used here includes both U.S. EPA Air Quality System ground and the NASA Aura satellite Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) NO2 observations to infer the representative emissions changes due to the COVID-19 economic slowdown in the U.S. Results show that there were widespread decreases in anthropogenic (e.g., NOx) emissions in the U.S. during March-June 2020, which led to widespread decreases in ozone concentrations in the rural regions that are NOx-limited, but also some localized increases near urban centers that are VOC-limited. Later in June-September, there were smaller decreases, and potentially some relative increases in NOx emissions for many areas of the U.S. (e.g., south-southeast) that led to more extensive increases in ozone concentrations that are partly in agreement with observations. The widespread NOx emissions changes also alters the O3 photochemical formation regimes, most notably the NOx emissions decreases in March-April, which can enhance (mitigate) the NOx-limited (VOC-limited) regimes in different regions of CONUS. The average of all AirNow hourly O3 changes for 2020-2019 range from about +1 to -4 ppb during March-September, and are associated with predominantly urban monitoring sites that demonstrate considerable spatiotemporal variability for the 2020 ozone changes compared to the previous five years individually (2015-2019). The simulated maximum values of the average O3 changes for March-September range from about +8 to -4 ppb (or +40 to -10%). Results of this work have implications for the use of widespread controls of anthropogenic emissions, particularly those from mobile sources, used to curb ozone pollution under the current meteorological and climate conditions in the U.S.

Project description:Since the World Health Organization has declared the current outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) a global pandemic, some have been anticipating that the mitigation could happen in the summer like seasonal influenza, while medical solutions are still in a slow progress. Experimental studies have revealed a few evidences that coronavirus decayed quickly under the exposure of heat and humidity. This study aims to carry out an epidemiological investigation to establish the association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 in high risk areas of the United States (U.S.). We analyzed daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 and seven meteorological measures in top 50 U.S. counties with the most accumulative confirmed cases from March 22, 2020 to April 22, 2020. Our analyses indicate that each meteorological factor and COVID-19 more likely have a nonlinear association rather than a linear association over the wide ranges of temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation observed. Average temperature, minimum relative humidity, and precipitation were better predictors to address the meteorological impact on COVID-19. By including all the three meteorological factors in the same model with their lagged effects up to 3 days, the overall impact of the average temperature on COVID-19 was found to peak at 68.45 °F and decrease at higher degrees, though the overall relative risk percentage (RR %) reduction did not become significantly negative up to 85 °F. There was a generally downward trend of RR % with the increase of minimum relative humidity; nonetheless, the trend reversed when the minimum relative humidity exceeded 91.42%. The overall RR % of COVID-19 climbed to the highest level of 232.07% (95% confidence interval?=?199.77, 267.85) with 1.60 inches of precipitation, and then started to decrease. When precipitation exceeded 1.85 inches, its impact on COVID-19 became significantly negative. Our findings alert people to better have self-protection during the pandemic rather than expecting that the natural environment can curb coronavirus for human beings.

Dataset Information

COVID-19 economic impacts in perspective: A comparison to recent U.S. disasters.

Publications

COVID-19 economic impacts in perspective: A comparison to recent U.S. disasters.

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