Dataset Information

Population-Level Strategies for Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir Prescribing-A Cost-effectiveness Analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

New coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) medications force decision-makers to weigh limited evidence of efficacy and cost in determining which patient populations to target for treatment. A case in point is nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, a drug that has been recommended for elderly, high-risk individuals, regardless of vaccination status, even though clinical trials have only evaluated it in unvaccinated patients. A simple optimization framework might inform a more reasoned approach to the trade-offs implicit in the treatment allocation decision.

Methods

We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis using a decision-analytic model comparing 5 nirmatrelvir/ritonavir prescription policy strategies, stratified by vaccination status and risk for severe disease. We considered treatment effectiveness at preventing hospitalization ranging from 21% to 89%. Sensitivity analyses were performed on major parameters of interest. A web-based tool was developed to permit decision-makers to tailor the analysis to their settings and priorities.

Results

Providing nirmatrelvir/ritonavir to unvaccinated patients at high risk for severe disease was cost-saving when effectiveness against hospitalization exceeded 33% and cost-effective under all other data scenarios we considered. The cost-effectiveness of other allocation strategies, including those for vaccinated adults and those at lower risk for severe disease, depended on willingness-to-pay thresholds, treatment cost and effectiveness, and the likelihood of severe disease.

Conclusions

Priority for nirmatrelvir/ritonavir treatment should be given to unvaccinated persons at high risk of severe disease from COVID-19. Further priority may be assigned by weighing treatment effectiveness, disease severity, drug cost, and willingness to pay for deaths averted.

SUBMITTER: Savinkina A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9792084 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Population-Level Strategies for Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir Prescribing-A Cost-effectiveness Analysis.

Savinkina Alexandra A Paltiel A David AD Ross Joseph S JS Gonsalves Gregg G

Open forum infectious diseases 20221125 12

<h4>Background</h4>New coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) medications force decision-makers to weigh limited evidence of efficacy and cost in determining which patient populations to target for treatment. A case in point is nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, a drug that has been recommended for elderly, high-risk individuals, regardless of vaccination status, even though clinical trials have only evaluated it in unvaccinated patients. A simple optimization framework might inform a more reasoned approach t ...[more]

PMID: 36589482

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundNirmatrelvir-ritonavir is highly effective in preventing severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in high-risk patients with mild-to-moderate severity. However, real-world performance data are limited, and the drug is not so acceptable to the COVID-19 patients at high risk who need it in Korea.MethodsTo evaluate the effectiveness of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir, we conducted a propensity score-matched retrospective cohort study on patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 at high risk for a severe disease who were hospitalized at four hospitals in South Korea from February 2022 to April 2022. A total of 236 patients in the treatment group (administered nirmatrelvir-ritonavir) and 236 in the matched control group (supportive care only) were analyzed for the primary outcome, i.e., the time to oxygen support-free survival. The secondary outcome was a composite result of disease progression. The reason for not prescribing nirmatrelvir-ritonavir to the indicated patients was also investigated.ResultsThe treatment group showed significantly longer oxygen support-free survival than the matched control group (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.01-0.31; P < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age (aHR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00-1.07), National Early Warning Score-2 at admission (aHR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.08-1.71), nirmatrelvir-ritonavir treatment, female sex (aHR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.15-0.88), and time from symptom onset to admission (aHR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.48-0.95) were significantly associated with oxygen therapy. However, none of the factors were related to the composite outcome. In the unmatched control group, 19.9% of 376 patients had documented explanations for nirmatrelvir-ritonavir non-prescription, and 44.0% of these were due to contraindication criteria. In the treatment group, 10.9% of patients discontinued the medication primarily because of adverse events (71.4%), with gastrointestinal symptoms being the most common (50.0%).ConclusionNirmatrelvir-ritonavir treatment significantly reduced oxygen therapy requirements in high-risk patients with COVID-19 during the omicron variant surge in South Korea. Physicians are encouraged to consider the active use of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and to be watchful for gastrointestinal symptoms during medication.

Project description:ObjectiveTo determine the effectiveness of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and molnupiravir among vaccinated and unvaccinated non-hospitalized adults with COVID-19.MethodsObservational studies of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir or molnupiravir compared to no antiviral drug treatment for COVID-19 in non-hospitalized adults with data on vaccination status were included. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, Web of Science, WHO COVID-19 Research Database and medRxiv for reports published between 1 January 2022 and 8 November 2023. The primary outcome was a composite of hospitalization or mortality up to 35 days after COVID-19 diagnosis. Risk of bias was assessed with ROBINS-I. Risk ratios (RR), hazard ratios (HR) and risk differences (RD) were separately estimated using random-effects models.ResultsWe included 30 cohort studies on adults treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (n = 462 279) and molnupiravir (n = 48 008). Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir probably reduced the composite outcome (RR 0.62, 95%CI 0.55-0.70; I2 = 0%; moderate certainty) with no evidence of effect modification by vaccination status (RR Psubgroup = 0.47). In five studies, RD estimates against the composite outcome for nirmatrelvir/ritonavir were 1.21% (95%CI 0.57% to 1.84%) in vaccinated and 1.72% (95%CI 0.59% to 2.85%) in unvaccinated subgroups.Molnupiravir may slightly reduce the composite outcome (RR 0.75, 95%CI 0.67-0.85; I2 = 32%; low certainty). Evidence of effect modification by vaccination status was inconsistent among studies reporting different effect measures (RR Psubgroup = 0.78; HR Psubgroup = 0.08). In two studies, RD against the composite outcome for molnupiravir were -0.01% (95%CI -1.13% to 1.10%) in vaccinated and 1.73% (95%CI -2.08% to 5.53%) in unvaccinated subgroups.ConclusionsAmong cohort studies of non-hospitalized adults with COVID-19, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir is effective against the composite outcome of severe COVID-19 independent of vaccination status. Further research and a reassessment of molnupiravir use among vaccinated adults are warranted.RegistrationPROSPERO CRD42023429232.

Project description:BackgroundWhether hospitalized patients benefit from COVID-19 oral antivirals is uncertain.ObjectiveTo examine the real-world effectiveness of molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 during the Omicron outbreak.DesignTarget trial emulation study.SettingElectronic health databases in Hong Kong.ParticipantsThe molnupiravir emulated trial included hospitalized patients with COVID-19 aged 18 years or older between 26 February and 18 July 2022 (n = 16 495). The nirmatrelvir-ritonavir emulated trial included hospitalized patients with COVID-19 aged 18 years or older between 16 March and 18 July 2022 (n = 7119).InterventionInitiation of molnupiravir or nirmatrelvir-ritonavir within 5 days of hospitalization with COVID-19 versus no initiation of molnupiravir or nirmatrelvir-ritonavir.MeasurementsEffectiveness against all-cause mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, or use of ventilatory support within 28 days.ResultsThe use of oral antivirals in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 was associated with a lower risk for all-cause mortality (molnupiravir: hazard ratio [HR], 0.87 [95% CI, 0.81 to 0.93]; nirmatrelvir-ritonavir: HR, 0.77 [CI, 0.66 to 0.90]) but no significant risk reduction in terms of ICU admission (molnupiravir: HR, 1.02 [CI, 0.76 to 1.36]; nirmatrelvir-ritonavir: HR, 1.08 [CI, 0.58 to 2.02]) or the need for ventilatory support (molnupiravir: HR, 1.07 [CI, 0.89 to 1.30]; nirmatrelvir-ritonavir: HR, 1.03 [CI, 0.70 to 1.52]). There was no significant interaction between drug treatment and the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses received, thereby supporting the effectiveness of oral antivirals regardless of vaccination status. No significant interaction between nirmatrelvir-ritonavir treatment and age, sex, or Charlson Comorbidity Index was observed, whereas molnupiravir tended to be more effective in older people.LimitationThe outcome of ICU admission or need for ventilatory support may not capture all severe COVID-19 cases; unmeasured confounders, such as obesity and health behaviors, may exist.ConclusionMolnupiravir and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir reduced all-cause mortality in both vaccinated and unvaccinated hospitalized patients. No significant reduction in ICU admission or the need for ventilatory support was observed.Primary funding sourceHealth and Medical Research Fund Research on COVID-19, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; Research Grants Council, Collaborative Research Fund; and Health Bureau, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.

Dataset Information

Population-Level Strategies for Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir Prescribing-A Cost-effectiveness Analysis.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Population-Level Strategies for Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir Prescribing-A Cost-effectiveness Analysis.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets