Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT: Objective
To validate the PIM3 score in Brazilian PICUs and compare its performance with the PIM2.Methods
Observational, retrospective, multicenter study, including patients younger than 16 years old admitted consecutively from October 2013 to September 2019. We assessed the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR), the discrimination capability (using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve - AUROC), and the calibration. To assess the calibration, we used the calibration belt, which is a curve that represents the correlation of predicted and observed values and their 95% Confidence Interval (CI) through all the risk ranges. We also analyzed the performance of both scores in three periods: 2013-2015, 2015-2017, and 2017-2019.Results
41,541 patients from 22 PICUs were included. Most patients aged less than 24 months (58.4%) and were admitted for medical conditions (88.6%) (respiratory conditions = 53.8%). Invasive mechanical ventilation was used in 5.8%. The median PICU length of stay was three days (IQR, 2-5), and the observed mortality was 1.8% (763 deaths). The predicted mortality by PIM3 was 1.8% (SMR 1.00; 95% CI 0.94-1.08) and by PIM2 was 2.1% (SMR 0.90; 95% CI 0.83-0.96). Both scores had good discrimination (PIM3 AUROC = 0.88 and PIM2 AUROC = 0.89). In calibration analysis, both scores overestimated mortality in the 0%-3% risk range, PIM3 tended to underestimate mortality in medium-risk patients (9%-46% risk range), and PIM2 also overestimated mortality in high-risk patients (70%-100% mortality risk).Conclusions
Both scores had a good discrimination ability but poor calibration in different ranges, which deteriorated over time in the population studied.
SUBMITTER: Genu DHS
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9795232 | biostudies-literature | 2022
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Genu Daniel Hilário Santos DHS Lima-Setta Fernanda F Colleti José J de Souza Daniela Carla DC Gama Sérgio D'Abreu SD Massaud-Ribeiro Letícia L Pistelli Ivan Pollastrini IP Proença Filho José Oliva JO Bernardi Thaís de Mello Cesar TMC de Castilho Taísa Roberta Ramos Nantes TRRN Clemente Manuela Guimarães MG Borsetto Cibele Cristina Manzoni Ribeiro CCMR de Oliveira Luiz Aurelio LA Alves Thallys Ramalho Suzart TRS Pedroso Diogo Botelho DB La Torre Fabíola Peixoto Ferreira FPF Borges Lunna Perdigão LP Santos Guilherme G de Mello E Silva Juliana Freitas JF de Magalhães-Barbosa Maria Clara MC da Cunha Antonio José Ledo Alves AJLA Soares Marcio M Prata-Barbosa Arnaldo A
Frontiers in pediatrics 20221214
<h4>Objective</h4>To validate the PIM3 score in Brazilian PICUs and compare its performance with the PIM2.<h4>Methods</h4>Observational, retrospective, multicenter study, including patients younger than 16 years old admitted consecutively from October 2013 to September 2019. We assessed the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR), the discrimination capability (using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve - AUROC), and the calibration. To assess the calibration, we used the calibr ...[more]