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COVID-19 mortality attenuated during widespread Omicron transmission, Denmark, 2020 to 2022.

ABSTRACT: BackgroundIt sparked considerable attention from international media when Denmark lifted restrictions against COVID-19 in February 2022 amidst widespread transmission of the new SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and a steep rise in reported COVID-19 mortality based on the 30-day COVID-19 death count.AimOur aim was to investigate how coincidental infections affected COVID-19 mortality estimates following the introduction of the Omicron variant in late 2021.MethodsWe compared the 30-day COVID-19 death count with the observed mortality using three alternative mortality estimation methods; (i) a mathematical model to correct the 30-day COVID-19 death count for coincidental deaths, (ii) the Causes of Death Registry (CDR) and (iii) all-cause excess mortality.ResultsThere was a substantial peak in the 30-day COVID-19 death count following the emergence of the Omicron variant in late 2021. However, there was also a substantial change in the proportion of coincidental deaths, increasing from 10-20% to around 40% of the recorded COVID-19 deaths. The high number of 30-day COVID-19 deaths was not reflected in the number of COVID-19 deaths in the CDR and the all-cause excess mortality surveillance.ConclusionOur analysis showed a distinct change in the mortality pattern following the introduction of Omicron in late 2021 with a markedly higher proportion of people estimated to have died with, rather than of, COVID-19 compared with mortality patterns observed earlier in the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating alternative mortality surveillance methods to more correctly estimate the burden of COVID-19 as the pandemic continues to evolve.

SUBMITTER: Friis NU

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9853946 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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COVID-19 mortality attenuated during widespread Omicron transmission, Denmark, 2020 to 2022.

Friis Nikolaj U NU Martin-Bertelsen Tomas T Pedersen Rasmus K RK Nielsen Jens J Krause Tyra G TG Andreasen Viggo V Vestergaard Lasse S LS

Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin 20230101 3

BackgroundIt sparked considerable attention from international media when Denmark lifted restrictions against COVID-19 in February 2022 amidst widespread transmission of the new SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and a steep rise in reported COVID-19 mortality based on the 30-day COVID-19 death count.AimOur aim was to investigate how coincidental infections affected COVID-19 mortality estimates following the introduction of the Omicron variant in late 2021.MethodsWe compared the 30-day COVID-19 death co ...[more]

PMID: 36695485

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Project description:BackgroundCauses of death other than COVID-19 seem to contribute significantly to the excess mortality observed during the 2020-2022 pandemic. In this study, we explore changes in non-COVID-19 causes of death in Norway during the COVID-19 pandemic from March 2020 to December 2022.MethodsWe performed a population-based cross-sectional study on data from the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. All recorded deaths from 1st January 2010 to 31st December 2022 were included. The main outcome measures were the number of deaths and age-standardised death rate (ASMR) per 100000 population from the major cause of death groups in 2020, 2021 and 2022. The predicted number of deaths and ASMRs were forecasted with a 95% prediction interval constructed from a general linear regression model based on the corresponding number of deaths and rates from the preceding ten prepandemic years (2010-2019). We also examined whether there were deviations from expected seasonality in the pandemic period based on prepandemic monthly data from 2010-2019. The cumulative number of deaths and ASMR were estimated based on monthly mortality data.ResultsThere was significant excess mortality (number of deaths) in 2021 and 2022 for all causes (3.7% and 14.5%), for cardiovascular diseases (14.3% and 22.0%), and for malignant tumours in 2022 (3.5%). In terms of ASMR, there was excess mortality in 2021 and 2022 for all causes (2.9% and 13.7%), and for cardiovascular diseases (16.0% and 25,8%). ASMR was higher than predicted in 2022 for malignant tumours (2.3%). There were fewer deaths than predicted from respiratory diseases (except COVID-19) in 2020 and 2021, and from dementia in 2021 and 2022. From March 2020 to December 2022, there were cumulatively 3754 (ASMR 83.8) more non-COVID-19 deaths than predicted, of which 3453 (ASMR: 79.6) were excess deaths from cardiovascular disease, 509 (ASMR 4.0) from malignant tumours. Mortality was lower than predicted for respiratory diseases (-1889 (ASMR: -44.3)), and dementia (-530 (ASMR -18.5)).ConclusionsThere was considerable excess non-COVID-19 mortality in Norway from March 2020 until December 2022, mainly due to excess cardiovascular deaths. For respiratory diseases and dementia, mortality was lower than predicted.

Project description:BackgroundThe persistent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had direct and indirect effects on mortality, making it essential to analyze excess mortality to fully understand the impact of the pandemic. In this study, we constructed a mathematical model using number of deaths from Statistics Korea and analyzed excess mortality between 2020 and 2022 according to age, sex, and dominant severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variant period.MethodsNumber of all-cause deaths between 2010 and 2022 were obtained from the annual cause-of-death statistics provided by Statistics Korea. COVID-19 mortality data were acquired from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. A multivariate linear regression model with seasonal effect, stratified by sex and age, was used to estimate the number of deaths in the absence of COVID-19. The estimated excess mortality rate was calculated.ResultsExcess mortality was not significant between January 2020 and October 2021. However, it started to increase monthly from November 2021 and reached its highest point during the omicron-dominant period. Specifically, in March and April 2022, during the omicron BA.1/BA.2-dominant period, the estimated median values for excess mortality were the highest at 17,634 and 11,379, respectively. Both COVID-19-related deaths and excess mortality increased with age. A notable increase in excess mortality was observed in individuals aged ≥ 65 years. In the context of excess mortality per 100,000 population based on the estimated median values in March 2022, the highest numbers were found among males and females aged ≥ 85 years at 1,048 and 910, respectively.ConclusionThis study revealed that the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic coupled with its high transmissibility not only increased COVID-19-related deaths but also had a significant impact on overall mortality rates, especially in the elderly. Therefore, it is crucial to concentrate healthcare resources and services on the elderly and ensure continued access to healthcare services during pandemics. Establishing an excess mortality monitoring system in the early stages of a pandemic is necessary to understand the impact of infectious diseases on mortality and effectively evaluate pandemic response policies.

Project description:BackgroundIndigenous individuals have higher rates of mortality and poverty in Mexico and more than half are marginalised, and COVID-19 pandemic aggravated the existing burden of health disparities. We aimed to analyse the effects of being indigenous and marginalised on coronavirus (COVID-19) infection fatality in Mexico.MethodsWe identified 3 424 690 non-pregnant, COVID-19 positive adults ≥19 years in the Mexico national COVID-19 database with known date of symptom. We used demographic information, indigenous status, marginalisation status, and co-morbidities in binary logistic regression to predict mortality, adjusting for covariates, including hospitalisation, admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), and mechanical ventilation use. We also assessed the interaction between indigenous status and marginalisation.ResultsMarginalisation was much higher among indigenous (53.7%) compared to non-indigenous individuals (4.8%). COVID-19 fatalities were approximately 20 years older (64.4 and 63.0 years) than survivors (44.7 and 41.2 years) among indigenous vs non-indigenous individuals, respectively. The unadjusted risk of COVID-19 fatality among indigenous individuals was nearly two-fold (odds ratio (OR) = 1.92)) compared to non-indigenous individuals (OR = 1.05). COVID-19 fatality was higher among highly marginalised individuals (upper quartile) (OR = 1.51; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.49-1.54). Marginalised indigenous individuals had a significantly lower likelihood of ICU admission compared to non-indigenous non-marginalised individuals. The likelihood of mechanical ventilation for indigenous individuals was 4% higher compared to non-indigenous individuals. Indigenous marginalised individuals had a significantly lower probability of mechanical ventilation compared to non-indigenous non-marginalised individuals. COVID-19 comorbidity risks of fatality significantly differed between the two groups in the Cox survival analysis. In the fully adjusted model, indigenous individuals were 4% more likely to die from COVID-19 compared to non-indigenous.ConclusionsIndigenous, marginalised individuals with COVID-19 had higher risk of hospitalisation and ICU admission than non-indigenous patients. Marginalised, indigenous individuals were less likely to receive mechanical ventilation compared to non-indigenous, but had a higher risk of COVID-19. Indigenous individuals had a 4% higher COVID-19 mortality risk COVID-19 compared to non-indigenous individuals. Improved community medical care and augmented health services in rural hospitals could mitigate barriers to health care access in indigenous, marginalised populations.

Project description:ImportancePrior research has established that Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black residents in the US experienced substantially higher COVID-19 mortality rates in 2020 than non-Hispanic White residents owing to structural racism. In 2021, these disparities decreased.ObjectiveTo assess to what extent national decreases in racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality between the initial pandemic wave and subsequent Omicron wave reflect reductions in mortality vs other factors, such as the pandemic's changing geography.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for COVID-19 deaths from March 1, 2020, through February 28, 2022, among adults aged 25 years and older residing in the US. Deaths were examined by race and ethnicity across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, and the national decrease in racial and ethnic disparities between initial and Omicron waves was decomposed. Data were analyzed from June 2021 through March 2023.ExposuresMetropolitan vs nonmetropolitan areas and race and ethnicity.Main outcomes and measuresAge-standardized death rates.ResultsThere were death certificates for 977 018 US adults aged 25 years and older (mean [SD] age, 73.6 [14.6] years; 435 943 female [44.6%]; 156 948 Hispanic [16.1%], 140 513 non-Hispanic Black [14.4%], and 629 578 non-Hispanic White [64.4%]) that included a mention of COVID-19. The proportion of COVID-19 deaths among adults residing in nonmetropolitan areas increased from 5944 of 110 526 deaths (5.4%) during the initial wave to a peak of 40 360 of 172 515 deaths (23.4%) during the Delta wave; the proportion was 45 183 of 210 554 deaths (21.5%) during the Omicron wave. The national disparity in age-standardized COVID-19 death rates per 100 000 person-years for non-Hispanic Black compared with non-Hispanic White adults decreased from 339 to 45 deaths from the initial to Omicron wave, or by 293 deaths. After standardizing for age and racial and ethnic differences by metropolitan vs nonmetropolitan residence, increases in death rates among non-Hispanic White adults explained 120 deaths/100 000 person-years of the decrease (40.7%); 58 deaths/100 000 person-years in the decrease (19.6%) were explained by shifts in mortality to nonmetropolitan areas, where a disproportionate share of non-Hispanic White adults reside. The remaining 116 deaths/100 000 person-years in the decrease (39.6%) were explained by decreases in death rates in non-Hispanic Black adults.Conclusions and relevanceThis study found that most of the national decrease in racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality between the initial and Omicron waves was explained by increased mortality among non-Hispanic White adults and changes in the geographic spread of the pandemic. These findings suggest that despite media reports of a decline in disparities, there is a continued need to prioritize racial health equity in the pandemic response.

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COVID-19 mortality attenuated during widespread Omicron transmission, Denmark, 2020 to 2022.

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COVID-19 mortality attenuated during widespread Omicron transmission, Denmark, 2020 to 2022.

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