A Systematic Review of Mathematical Models of Dengue Transmission and Vector Control: 2010-2020.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Ogunlade ST
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9862433 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
A Systematic Review of Mathematical Models of Dengue Transmission and Vector Control: 2010-2020.
Ogunlade Samson T ST Meehan Michael T MT Adekunle Adeshina I AI McBryde Emma S ES
Viruses 20230116 1
Vector control methods are considered effective in averting dengue transmission. However, several factors may modify their impact. Of these controls, chemical methods, in the long run, may increase mosquitoes' resistance to chemicides, thereby decreasing control efficacy. The biological methods, which may be self-sustaining and very effective, could be hampered by seasonality or heatwaves (resulting in, e.g., loss of <i>Wolbachia</i> infection). The environmental methods that could be more effec ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:Mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission originated in the early twentieth century to provide insights into how to most effectively combat malaria. The foundations of the Ross-Macdonald theory were established by 1970. Since then, there has been a growing interest in reducing the public health burden of mosquito-borne pathogens and an expanding use of models to guide their control. To assess how theory has changed to confront evolving public health challenges, we compiled a bibliography of 325 publications from 1970 through 2010 that included at least one mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and then used a 79-part questionnaire to classify each of 388 associated models according to its biological assumptions. As a composite measure to interpret the multidimensional results of our survey, we assigned a numerical value to each model that measured its similarity to 15 core assumptions of the Ross-Macdonald model. Although the analysis illustrated a growing acknowledgement of geographical, ecological and epidemiological complexities in modelling transmission, most models during the past 40 years closely resemble the Ross-Macdonald model. Modern theory would benefit from an expansion around the concepts of heterogeneous mosquito biting, poorly mixed mosquito-host encounters, spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation in the transmission process.
| S-EPMC3627099 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We review behavioural change models (BCMs) for infectious disease transmission in humans. Following the Cochrane collaboration guidelines and the PRISMA statement, our systematic search and selection yielded 178 papers covering the period 2010-2015. We observe an increasing trend in published BCMs, frequently coupled to (re)emergence events, and propose a categorization by distinguishing how information translates into preventive actions. Behaviour is usually captured by introducing information as a dynamic parameter (76/178) or by introducing an economic objective function, either with (26/178) or without (37/178) imitation. Approaches using information thresholds (29/178) and exogenous behaviour formation (16/178) are also popular. We further classify according to disease, prevention measure, transmission model (with 81/178 population, 6/178 metapopulation and 91/178 individual-level models) and the way prevention impacts transmission. We highlight the minority (15%) of studies that use any real-life data for parametrization or validation and note that BCMs increasingly use social media data and generally incorporate multiple sources of information (16/178), multiple types of information (17/178) or both (9/178). We conclude that individual-level models are increasingly used and useful to model behaviour changes. Despite recent advancements, we remain concerned that most models are purely theoretical and lack representative data and a validation process.
| S-EPMC5221530 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The application of the organophosphate larvicide temephos to water storage containers is one of the most commonly employed dengue vector control methods. This systematic literature review is to the knowledge of the authors the first that aims to assess the community-effectiveness of temephos in controlling both vectors and dengue transmission when delivered either as a single intervention or in combination with other interventions. A comprehensive literature search of 6 databases was performed (PubMed, WHOLIS, GIFT, CDSR, EMBASE, Wiley), grey literature and cross references were also screened for relevant studies. Data were extracted and methodological quality of the studies was assessed independently by two reviewers. 27 studies were included in this systematic review (11 single intervention studies and 16 combined intervention studies). All 11 single intervention studies showed consistently that using temephos led to a reduction in entomological indices. Although 11 of the 16 combined intervention studies showed that temephos application together with other chemical vector control methods also reduced entomological indices, this was either not sustained over time or-as in the five remaining studies--failed to reduce the immature stages. The community-effectiveness of temephos was found to be dependent on factors such as quality of delivery, water turnover rate, type of water, and environmental factors such as organic debris, temperature and exposure to sunlight. Timing of temephos deployment and its need for reapplication, along with behavioural factors such as the reluctance of its application to drinking water, and operational aspects such as cost, supplies, time and labour were further limitations identified in this review. In conclusion, when applied as a single intervention, temephos was found to be effective at suppressing entomological indices, however, the same effect has not been observed when temephos was applied in combination with other interventions. There is no evidence to suggest that temephos use is associated with reductions in dengue transmission.
| S-EPMC4570708 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundVector control remains the primary method to prevent dengue infections. Environmental interventions represent sustainable and safe methods as there are limited risks of environmental contamination and toxicity. The objective of this study is to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of the effectiveness of the following environmental methods for dengue vector control.Methodology/principal findingsFollowing the PRISMA guidelines, a systematic literature search was conducted using the databases PubMed, EMBASE, LILACS, the Cochrane Library and Google Scholar. Quality assessment was done using the CONSORT 2010 checklist. For the meta-analysis the difference-in-differences (DID) and the difference-of-endlines (DOE) were calculated according to the Schmidt-Hunter method for the Breteau index (BI) and the pupae per person index (PPI). Nineteen studies were eligible for the systematic review, sixteen contributed data to the meta-analysis. The following methods were evaluated: (a) container covers with and without insecticides, (b) waste management and clean-up campaigns, and (c) elimination of breeding sites by rendering potential mosquito breeding sites unusable or by eliminating them. Study quality was highest for container covers with insecticides, followed by waste management without direct garbage collection and elimination of breeding places. Both, systematic review and meta-analysis, showed a weak effect of the interventions on larval populations, with no obvious differences between the results of each individual method. For the meta-analysis, both, container covers without insecticides (BI: DID -7.9, DOE -5) and waste management with direct garbage collection (BI: DID -8.83, DOE -6.2) achieved the strongest reductions for the BI, whereas for the PPI results were almost opposite, with container covers with insecticides (PPI: DID -0.83, DOE 0.09) and elimination of breeding places (PPI: DID -0.95, DOE -0.83) showing the strongest effects.ConclusionsEach of the investigated environmental methods showed some effectiveness in reducing larval and pupal densities of Aedes sp. mosquitoes. However, there is a need for more comparable high-quality studies at an adequate standard to strengthen this evidence.
| S-EPMC6650086 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundVector control is the only widely utilised method for primary prevention and control of dengue. The use of pyriproxyfen may be promising, and autodissemination approach may reach hard to reach breeding places. It offers a unique mode of action (juvenile hormone mimic) and as an additional tool for the management of insecticide resistance among Aedes vectors. However, evidence of efficacy and community effectiveness (CE) remains limited.ObjectiveThe aim of this systematic review is to compile and analyse the existing literature for evidence on the CE of pyriproxyfen as a vector control method for reducing Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus populations and thereby human dengue transmission.MethodsSystematic search of PubMed, Embase, Lilacs, Cochrane library, WHOLIS, Web of Science, Google Scholar as well as reference lists of all identified studies. Removal of duplicates, screening of abstracts and assessment for eligibility of the remaining studies followed. Relevant data were extracted, and a quality assessment conducted. Results were classified into four main categories of how pyriproxyfen was applied: - 1) container treatment, 2) fumigation, 3) auto-dissemination or 4) combination treatments,-and analysed with a view to their public health implication.ResultsOut of 745 studies 17 studies were identified that fulfilled all eligibility criteria. The results show that pyriproxyfen can be effective in reducing the numbers of Aedes spp. immatures with different methods of application when targeting their main breeding sites. However, the combination of pyriproxyfen with a second product increases efficacy and/or persistence of the intervention and may also slow down the development of insecticide resistance. Open questions concern concentration and frequency of application in the various treatments. Area-wide ultra-low volume treatment with pyriproxyfen currently lacks evidence and cannot be recommended. Community participation and acceptance has not consistently been successful and needs to be further assessed. While all studies measured entomological endpoints, only two studies measured the reduction in human dengue cases, with inconclusive results.ConclusionsAlthough pyriproxyfen is highly effective in controlling the immature stages of dengue transmitting mosquitoes, and-to a smaller degree-adult mosquitoes, there is weak evidence for a reduction of human dengue cases. More well designed larger studies with appropriate standardised outcome measures are needed before pyriproxyfen is incorporated in routine vector control programmes. Additionally, resistance to pyriproxyfen has been reported and needs investigation.
| S-EPMC5531696 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Dengue virus (DENV) infection has garnered a global interest in the past few decades. Nevertheless, its epidemiology in certain developing and low-income regions remains poorly understood, due to the absence of comprehensive surveillance and reporting systems. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to determine the prevalence of DENV infection in the population of Sub-Saharan Africa using DENV infection markers, and to track any changes in its prevalence during the past ten years. It was conducted in accordance with the PRISMA guidelines, targeting the literature available at MEDLINE/PubMed, ScienceDirect, Cochrane library and Google Scholar. All articles published in English language between January 2010 and June 2020 were screened for eligibility. Random effects model was used to calculate the pooled prevalence of all infection markers. The Inconsistency Index (I 2) was used to assess the level of heterogeneity between studies. Subgroup analysis according to country and time-frame of studies was conducted to provide possible explanations to substantial heterogeneity. The critical appraisal tool for prevalence studies designed by the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) was used to assess the risk of bias in all included studies. A total of 84 articles, covering 21 countries, were included in this review. Quantitative meta-analysis estimated a pooled IgG prevalence of 25% (95% CI: 21-29%, I 2 = 99%), a pooled IgM prevalence of 10% (95% CI: 9-11%, I 2 = 98%) and a pooled DENV RNA prevalence of 14% (95% CI: 12-16%, I 2 = 99%). Evidence for possible publication bias was also found in all three meta-analyses. Subgroup analysis according to the time of sample collection was performed to closely track the changing prevalence of DENV infection markers between 2010 and 2019. This meta-analysis estimates a high prevalence of DENV infection in Sub-Saharan Africa. More cost-efficient vector control strategies should be designed and implemented in order to adapt to the low-resource nature of this region.
| S-EPMC8186319 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDespite doubts about methods used and the association between vector density and dengue transmission, routine sampling of mosquito vector populations is common in dengue-endemic countries worldwide. This study examined the evidence from published studies for the existence of any quantitative relationship between vector indices and dengue cases.Methodology/principal findingsFrom a total of 1205 papers identified in database searches following Cochrane and PRISMA Group guidelines, 18 were included for review. Eligibility criteria included 3-month study duration and dengue case confirmation by WHO case definition and/or serology. A range of designs were seen, particularly in spatial sampling and analyses, and all but 3 were classed as weak study designs. Eleven of eighteen studies generated Stegomyia indices from combined larval and pupal data. Adult vector data were reported in only three studies. Of thirteen studies that investigated associations between vector indices and dengue cases, 4 reported positive correlations, 4 found no correlation and 5 reported ambiguous or inconclusive associations. Six out of 7 studies that measured Breteau Indices reported dengue transmission at levels below the currently accepted threshold of 5.Conclusions/significanceThere was little evidence of quantifiable associations between vector indices and dengue transmission that could reliably be used for outbreak prediction. This review highlighted the need for standardized sampling protocols that adequately consider dengue spatial heterogeneity. Recommendations for more appropriately designed studies include: standardized study design to elucidate the relationship between vector abundance and dengue transmission; adult mosquito sampling should be routine; single values of Breteau or other indices are not reliable universal dengue transmission thresholds; better knowledge of vector ecology is required.
| S-EPMC4014441 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe prevention and control of dengue rely mainly on vector control methods, including indoor residual spraying (IRS) and indoor space spraying (ISS). This study aimed to systematically review the available evidence on community effectiveness of indoor spraying.MethodsA systematic review was conducted using seven databases (PubMed, EMBASE, LILACS, Web of Science, WHOLIS, Cochrane, and Google Scholar) and a manual search of the reference lists of the identified studies. Data from included studies were extracted, analysed and reported.ResultsThe review generated seven studies only, three IRS and four ISS (two/three controlled studies respectively). Two IRS studies measuring human transmission showed a decline. One IRS and all four ISS studies measuring adult mosquitoes showed a very good effect, up to 100%, but not sustained. Two IRS studies and one ISS measuring immature mosquitoes, showed mixed results.ConclusionsIt is evident that IRS and also ISS are effective adulticidal interventions against Aedes mosquitoes. However, evidence to suggest effectiveness of IRS as a larvicidal intervention and to reduce human dengue cases is limited-and even more so for ISS. Overall, there is a paucity of studies available on these two interventions that may be promising for dengue vector control, particularly for IRS with its residual effect.
| S-EPMC5578493 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAlthough a vaccine could be available as early as 2016, vector control remains the primary approach used to prevent dengue, the most common and widespread arbovirus of humans worldwide. We reviewed the evidence for effectiveness of vector control methods in reducing its transmission.Methodology/principal findingsStudies of any design published since 1980 were included if they evaluated method(s) targeting Aedes aegypti or Ae. albopictus for at least 3 months. Primary outcome was dengue incidence. Following Cochrane and PRISMA Group guidelines, database searches yielded 960 reports, and 41 were eligible for inclusion, with 19 providing data for meta-analysis. Study duration ranged from 5 months to 10 years. Studies evaluating multiple tools/approaches (23 records) were more common than single methods, while environmental management was the most common method (19 studies). Only 9/41 reports were randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Two out of 19 studies evaluating dengue incidence were RCTs, and neither reported any statistically significant impact. No RCTs evaluated effectiveness of insecticide space-spraying (fogging) against dengue. Based on meta-analyses, house screening significantly reduced dengue risk, OR 0.22 (95% CI 0.05-0.93, p = 0.04), as did combining community-based environmental management and water container covers, OR 0.22 (95% CI 0.15-0.32, p<0.0001). Indoor residual spraying (IRS) did not impact significantly on infection risk (OR 0.67; 95% CI 0.22-2.11; p = 0.50). Skin repellents, insecticide-treated bed nets or traps had no effect (p>0.5), but insecticide aerosols (OR 2.03; 95% CI 1.44-2.86) and mosquito coils (OR 1.44; 95% CI 1.09-1.91) were associated with higher dengue risk (p = 0.01). Although 23/41 studies examined the impact of insecticide-based tools, only 9 evaluated the insecticide susceptibility status of the target vector population during the study.Conclusions/significanceThis review and meta-analysis demonstrate the remarkable paucity of reliable evidence for the effectiveness of any dengue vector control method. Standardised studies of higher quality to evaluate and compare methods must be prioritised to optimise cost-effective dengue prevention.
| S-EPMC4795802 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMathematical models of chlamydia transmission can help inform disease control policy decisions when direct empirical evaluation of alternatives is impractical. We reviewed published chlamydia models to understand the range of approaches used for policy analyses and how the studies have responded to developments in the field.MethodsWe performed a literature review by searching Medline and Google Scholar (up to October 2015) to identify publications describing dynamic chlamydia transmission models used to address public health policy questions. We extracted information on modeling methodology, interventions, and key findings.ResultsWe identified 47 publications (including two model comparison studies), which reported collectively on 29 distinct mathematical models. Nine models were individual-based, and 20 were deterministic compartmental models. The earliest studies evaluated the benefits of national-level screening programs and predicted potentially large benefits from increased screening. Subsequent trials and further modeling analyses suggested the impact might have been overestimated. Partner notification has been increasingly evaluated in mathematical modeling, whereas behavioral interventions have received relatively limited attention.ConclusionsOur review provides an overview of chlamydia transmission models and gives a perspective on how mathematical modeling has responded to increasing empirical evidence and addressed policy questions related to prevention of chlamydia infection and sequelae.
| S-EPMC6727649 | biostudies-literature