Dataset Information

Prognostic Role of Prior Heart Failure Hospitalization Among Patients Hospitalized for Worsening Chronic Heart Failure.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Hospitalization for heart failure (HF) is associated with increased risk of death among patients with chronic HF. The degree to which hospitalization for HF is a distinct biologic entity with independent prognostic value versus a marker of higher risk chronic HF patients is unclear.

Methods

After excluding patients with new-onset HF, the ASCEND-HF trial (Acute Study of Clinical Effectiveness of Nesiritide in Decompensated Heart Failure) included 4205 patients hospitalized for worsening chronic HF with reduced or preserved ejection fraction. The present analysis compared patients by presence or absence of prior HF hospitalization within 12 months and by timing of prior HF hospitalization relative to index hospitalization. Associations with 180-day all-cause mortality were assessed, including adjustment for 27 prespecified clinical factors.

Results

Overall, 2241 (53.3%) patients had a HF hospitalization within the prior 12 months and 1964 (46.7%) did not. Mortality rates at 180 days were 15.5% and 11.9%, respectively. In unadjusted analyses, prior HF hospitalization was associated with increased risk of 180-day mortality (HR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.14-1.59]; P<0.01). After adjustment, the point estimate was attenuated and the association not statistically significant (HR, 1.18 [95% CI, 0.99-1.40]; P=0.064). Similarly, after adjustment, compared with patients without prior hospitalization, prior HF hospitalization was not associated with mortality, irrespective of timing (0-4 months: HR, 1.10 [95% CI, 0.87-1.39], P=0.41; 4-8 months: HR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.70-1.27]; P=0.72; 8-12 months: HR, 1.06 [95% CI, 0.74-1.51], P=0.77; >12 months: HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.63-1.06], P=0.12).

Conclusions

In this cohort of patients hospitalized for worsening HF, prior HF hospitalization was not associated with 180-day mortality after comprehensively accounting for patient characteristics measured during the index patient visit. Clinical confounders measured at the point-of-care may explain previously observed associations between prior HF hospitalization and mortality, and these clinical factors may be a more direct means of predicting patient survival. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00475852.

SUBMITTER: Blumer V

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9990499 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Prognostic Role of Prior Heart Failure Hospitalization Among Patients Hospitalized for Worsening Chronic Heart Failure.

Blumer Vanessa V Mentz Robert J RJ Sun Jie-Lena JL Butler Javed J Metra Marco M Voors Adriaan A AA Hernandez Adrian F AF O'Connor Christopher M CM Greene Stephen J SJ

Circulation. Heart failure 20210329 4

<h4>Background</h4>Hospitalization for heart failure (HF) is associated with increased risk of death among patients with chronic HF. The degree to which hospitalization for HF is a distinct biologic entity with independent prognostic value versus a marker of higher risk chronic HF patients is unclear.<h4>Methods</h4>After excluding patients with new-onset HF, the ASCEND-HF trial (Acute Study of Clinical Effectiveness of Nesiritide in Decompensated Heart Failure) included 4205 patients hospitaliz ...[more]

PMID: 33775110

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Project description:AimsThis study aims to develop and validate an optimal model for predicting worsening heart failure (WHF). Multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms were compared, and the results were interpreted using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). A clinical risk calculation tool was subsequently developed based on these findings.Methods and resultsThis nested case-control study included 200 patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) from the China-Japan Friendship Hospital (September 2019 to December 2022). Sixty-five variables were collected, including basic information, physical and chemical examinations, and quality of life assessments. WHF occurrence within a 3-month follow-up was the outcome event. Variables were screened using LASSO regression, univariate analysis, and comparison of key variables in multiple ML models. Eighty per cent of the data was used for training and 20% for testing. The best models were identified by integrating nine ML algorithms and interpreted using SHAP, and to develop a final risk calculation tool. Among participants, 68 (34.0%) were female, with a mean age (standard deviation, SD) of 68.57 (12.80) years. During the follow-up, 60 participants (30%) developed WHF. N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), creatinine (Cr), uric acid (UA), haemoglobin (Hb), and emotional area score on the Minnesota Heart Failure Quality of Life Questionnaire were critical predictors of WHF occurrence. The random forest (RF) model was the best model to predict WHF with an area under the curve (AUC) (95% confidence interval, CI) of 0.842 (0.675-1.000), accuracy of 0.775, sensitivity of 0.900, specificity of 0.833, negative predictive value of 0.800, and positive predictive value of 0.600 for the test set. SHAP analysis highlighted NT-proBNP, UA, and Cr as significant predictors. An online risk predictor based on the RF model was developed for personalized WHF risk assessment.ConclusionsThis study identifies NT-proBNP, Cr, UA, Hb, and emotional area scores as crucial predictors of WHF in CHF patients. Among the nine ML algorithms assessed, the RF model showed the highest predictive accuracy. SHAP analysis further emphasized NT-proBNP, UA, and Cr as the most significant predictors. An online risk prediction tool based on the RF model was subsequently developed to enhance early and personalized WHF risk assessment in clinical settings.

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Dataset Information

Prognostic Role of Prior Heart Failure Hospitalization Among Patients Hospitalized for Worsening Chronic Heart Failure.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Prognostic Role of Prior Heart Failure Hospitalization Among Patients Hospitalized for Worsening Chronic Heart Failure.

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