Variance estimation, design effects, and sample size calculations for respondent-driven sampling.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Salganik MJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC1705515 | biostudies-other | 2006 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:Estimating the size of stigmatized, hidden, or hard-to-reach populations is a major problem in epidemiology, demography, and public health research. Capture-recapture and multiplier methods are standard tools for inference of hidden population sizes, but they require random sampling of target population members, which is rarely possible. Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a survey method for hidden populations that relies on social link tracing. The RDS recruitment process is designed to spread through the social network connecting members of the target population. In this paper, we show how to use network data revealed by RDS to estimate hidden population size. The key insight is that the recruitment chain, timing of recruitments, and network degrees of recruited subjects provide information about the number of individuals belonging to the target population who are not yet in the sample. We use a computationally efficient Bayesian method to integrate over the missing edges in the subgraph of recruited individuals. We validate the method using simulated data and apply the technique to estimate the number of people who inject drugs in St. Petersburg, Russia.
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Project description:Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a network-based technique for estimating traits in hard-to-reach populations, for example, the prevalence of HIV among drug injectors. In recent years RDS has been used in more than 120 studies in more than 20 countries and by leading public health organizations, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States. Despite the widespread use and growing popularity of RDS, there has been little empirical validation of the methodology. Here we investigate the performance of RDS by simulating sampling from 85 known, network populations. Across a variety of traits we find that RDS is substantially less accurate than generally acknowledged and that reported RDS confidence intervals are misleadingly narrow. Moreover, because we model a best-case scenario in which the theoretical RDS sampling assumptions hold exactly, it is unlikely that RDS performs any better in practice than in our simulations. Notably, the poor performance of RDS is driven not by the bias but by the high variance of estimates, a possibility that had been largely overlooked in the RDS literature. Given the consistency of our results across networks and our generous sampling conditions, we conclude that RDS as currently practiced may not be suitable for key aspects of public health surveillance where it is now extensively applied.
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Project description:Respondent-driven sampling is a novel variant of link-tracing sampling for estimating the characteristics of hard-to-reach groups, such as HIV prevalence in sex workers. Despite its use by leading health organizations, the performance of this method in realistic situations is still largely unknown. We evaluated respondent-driven sampling by comparing estimates from a respondent-driven sampling survey with total population data.Total population data on age, tribe, religion, socioeconomic status, sexual activity, and HIV status were available on a population of 2402 male household heads from an open cohort in rural Uganda. A respondent-driven sampling (RDS) survey was carried out in this population, using current methods of sampling (RDS sample) and statistical inference (RDS estimates). Analyses were carried out for the full RDS sample and then repeated for the first 250 recruits (small sample).We recruited 927 household heads. Full and small RDS samples were largely representative of the total population, but both samples underrepresented men who were younger, of higher socioeconomic status, and with unknown sexual activity and HIV status. Respondent-driven sampling statistical inference methods failed to reduce these biases. Only 31%-37% (depending on method and sample size) of RDS estimates were closer to the true population proportions than the RDS sample proportions. Only 50%-74% of respondent-driven sampling bootstrap 95% confidence intervals included the population proportion.Respondent-driven sampling produced a generally representative sample of this well-connected nonhidden population. However, current respondent-driven sampling inference methods failed to reduce bias when it occurred. Whether the data required to remove bias and measure precision can be collected in a respondent-driven sampling survey is unresolved. Respondent-driven sampling should be regarded as a (potentially superior) form of convenience sampling method, and caution is required when interpreting findings based on the sampling method.
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Project description:Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a widely used method for sampling from hard-to-reach human populations, especially populations at higher risk for HIV. Data are collected through peer-referral over social networks. RDS has proven practical for data collection in many difficult settings and is widely used. Inference from RDS data requires many strong assumptions because the sampling design is partially beyond the control of the researcher and partially unobserved. We introduce diagnostic tools for most of these assumptions and apply them in 12 high risk populations. These diagnostics empower researchers to better understand their data and encourage future statistical research on RDS.
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Project description:IntroductionRespondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a variant of a link-tracing design intended for generating unbiased estimates of the composition of hidden populations that typically involves giving participants several coupons to recruit their peers into the study. RDS may generate biased estimates if coupons are distributed non-randomly or if potential recruits present for interview non-randomly. We explore if biases detected in an RDS study were due to either of these mechanisms, and propose and apply weights to reduce bias due to non-random presentation for interview.MethodsUsing data from the total population, and the population to whom recruiters offered their coupons, we explored how age and socioeconomic status were associated with being offered a coupon, and, if offered a coupon, with presenting for interview. Population proportions were estimated by weighting by the assumed inverse probabilities of being offered a coupon (as in existing RDS methods), and also of presentation for interview if offered a coupon by age and socioeconomic status group.ResultsYounger men were under-recruited primarily because they were less likely to be offered coupons. The under-recruitment of higher socioeconomic status men was due in part to them being less likely to present for interview. Consistent with these findings, weighting for non-random presentation for interview by age and socioeconomic status group greatly improved the estimate of the proportion of men in the lowest socioeconomic group, reducing the root-mean-squared error of RDS estimates of socioeconomic status by 38%, but had little effect on estimates for age. The weighting also improved estimates for tribe and religion (reducing root-mean-squared-errors by 19-29%), but had little effect for sexual activity or HIV status.ConclusionsData collected from recruiters on the characteristics of men to whom they offered coupons may be used to reduce bias in RDS studies. Further evaluation of this new method is required.
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Project description:Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is widely used for collecting data on hard-to-reach populations, including information about the structure of the networks connecting the individuals. Characterizing network features can be important for designing and evaluating health programs, particularly those that involve infectious disease transmission. While the validity of population proportions estimated from RDS-based datasets has been well studied, little is known about potential biases in inference about network structure from RDS. We developed a mathematical and statistical platform to simulate network structures with exponential random graph models, and to mimic the data generation mechanisms produced by RDS. We used this framework to characterize biases in three important network statistics - density/mean degree, homophily, and transitivity. Generalized linear models were used to predict the network statistics of the original network from the network statistics of the sample network and observable sample design features. We found that RDS may introduce significant biases in the estimation of density/mean degree and transitivity, and may exaggerate homophily when preferential recruitment occurs. Adjustments to network-generating statistics derived from the prediction models could substantially improve validity of simulated networks in terms of density, and could reduce bias in replicating mean degree, homophily, and transitivity from the original network.
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Project description:Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a chain-referral method for sampling members of hidden or hard-to-reach populations, such as sex workers, homeless people, or drug users, via their social networks. Most methodological work on RDS has focused on inference of population means under the assumption that subjects' network degree determines their probability of being sampled. Criticism of existing estimators is usually focused on missing data: the underlying network is only partially observed, so it is difficult to determine correct sampling probabilities. In this article, the author shows that data collected in ordinary RDS studies contain information about the structure of the respondents' social network. The author constructs a continuous-time model of RDS recruitment that incorporates the time series of recruitment events, the pattern of coupon use, and the network degrees of sampled subjects. Together, the observed data and the recruitment model place a well-defined probability distribution on the recruitment-induced subgraph of respondents. The author shows that this distribution can be interpreted as an exponential random graph model and develops a computationally efficient method for estimating the hidden graph. The author validates the method using simulated data and applies the technique to an RDS study of injection drug users in St. Petersburg, Russia.
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Project description:The study of hard-to-reach populations presents significant challenges. Typically, a sampling frame is not available, and population members are difficult to identify or recruit from broader sampling frames. This is especially true of populations at high risk for HIV/AIDS. Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is often used in such settings with the primary goal of estimating the prevalence of infection. In such populations, the number of people at risk for infection and the number of people infected are of fundamental importance. This article presents a case-study of the estimation of the size of the hard-to-reach population based on data collected through RDS. We study two populations of female sex workers and men-who-have-sex-with-men in El Salvador. The approach is Bayesian and we consider different forms of prior information, including using the UNAIDS population size guidelines for this region. We show that the method is able to quantify the amount of information on population size available in RDS samples. As separate validation, we compare our results to those estimated by extrapolating from a capture-recapture study of El Salvadorian cities. The results of our case-study are largely comparable to those of the capture-recapture study when they differ from the UNAIDS guidelines. Our method is widely applicable to data from RDS studies and we provide a software package to facilitate this.
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Project description:BackgroundEstimates of the sizes of hidden populations, including female sex workers (FSW), men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who inject drugs (PWID), are essential for understanding the magnitude of vulnerabilities, health care needs, risk behaviors, and HIV and other infections.ObjectiveThis article advances the successive sampling-population size estimation (SS-PSE) method by examining the performance of a modification allowing visibility to be jointly modeled with population size in the context of 15 datasets. Datasets are from respondent-driven sampling (RDS) surveys of FSW, MSM, and PWID from three cities in Armenia. We compare and evaluate the accuracy of our imputed visibility population size estimates to those found for the same populations through other unpublished methods. We then suggest questions that are useful for eliciting information needed to compute SS-PSE and provide guidelines and caveats to improve the implementation of SS-PSE for real data.MethodsSS-PSE approximates the RDS sampling mechanism via the successive sampling model and uses the order of selection of the sample to provide information on the distribution of network sizes over the population members. We incorporate visibility imputation, a measure of a person's propensity to participate in the study, given that inclusion probabilities for RDS are unknown and social network sizes, often used as a proxy for inclusion probability, are subject to measurement errors from self-reported study data.ResultsFSW in Yerevan (2012, 2016) and Vanadzor (2016) as well as PWID in Yerevan (2014), Gyumri (2016), and Vanadzor (2016) had great fits with prior estimations. The MSM populations in all three cities had inconsistencies with expert prior values. The maximum low prior value was larger than the minimum high prior value, making a great fit impossible. One possible explanation is the inclusion of transgender individuals in the MSM populations during these studies. There could be differences between what experts perceive as the size of the population, based on who is an eligible member of that population, and what members of the population perceive. There could also be inconsistencies among different study participants, as some may include transgender individuals in their accounting of personal network size, while others may not. Because of these difficulties, the transgender population was split apart from the MSM population for the 2018 study.ConclusionsPrior estimations from expert opinions may not always be accurate. RDS surveys should be assessed to ensure that they have met all of the assumptions, that variables have reached convergence, and that the network structure of the population does not have bottlenecks. We recommend that SS-PSE be used in conjunction with other population size estimations commonly used in RDS, as well as results of other years of SS-PSE, to ensure generation of the most accurate size estimation.
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Project description:Respondent-driven sampling is a variant of link-tracing sampling techniques that aim to recruit hard-to-reach populations by leveraging individuals' social relationships. As such, a respondent-driven sample has a graphical component which represents a partially observed network of unknown structure. Moreover, it is common to observe homophily, or the tendency to form connections with individuals who share similar traits. Currently, there is a lack of principled guidance on multivariate modelling strategies for respondent-driven sampling to address peer effects driven by homophily and the dependence between observations within the network. In this work, we propose a methodology for general regression techniques using respondent-driven sampling data. This is used to study the socio-demographic predictors of HIV treatment optimism (about the value of antiretroviral therapy) among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men, recruited into a respondent-driven sampling study in Montreal, Canada.
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