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Centroid estimation in discrete high-dimensional spaces with applications in biology.

ABSTRACT: Maximum likelihood estimators and other direct optimization-based estimators dominated statistical estimation and prediction for decades. Yet, the principled foundations supporting their dominance do not apply to the discrete high-dimensional inference problems of the 21st century. As it is well known, statistical decision theory shows that maximum likelihood and related estimators use data only to identify the single most probable solution. Accordingly, unless this one solution so dominates the immense ensemble of all solutions that its probability is near one, there is no principled reason to expect such an estimator to be representative of the posterior-weighted ensemble of solutions, and thus represent inferences drawn from the data. We employ statistical decision theory to find more representative estimators, centroid estimators, in a general high-dimensional discrete setting by using a family of loss functions with penalties that increase with the number of differences in components. We show that centroid estimates are obtained by maximizing the marginal probabilities of the solution components for unconstrained ensembles and for an important class of problems, including sequence alignment and the prediction of RNA secondary structure, whose ensembles contain exclusivity constraints. Three genomics examples are described that show that these estimators substantially improve predictions of ground-truth reference sets.

SUBMITTER: Carvalho LE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2265131 | biostudies-other | 2008 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Centroid estimation in discrete high-dimensional spaces with applications in biology.

Carvalho Luis E LE Lawrence Charles E CE

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20080227 9

Maximum likelihood estimators and other direct optimization-based estimators dominated statistical estimation and prediction for decades. Yet, the principled foundations supporting their dominance do not apply to the discrete high-dimensional inference problems of the 21st century. As it is well known, statistical decision theory shows that maximum likelihood and related estimators use data only to identify the single most probable solution. Accordingly, unless this one solution so dominates the ...[more]

PMID: 18305160

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Project description:BackgroundA biological system's robustness to mutations and its evolution are influenced by the structure of its viable space, the region of its space of biochemical parameters where it can exert its function. In systems with a large number of biochemical parameters, viable regions with potentially complex geometries fill a tiny fraction of the whole parameter space. This hampers explorations of the viable space based on "brute force" or Gaussian sampling.ResultsWe here propose a novel algorithm to characterize viable spaces efficiently. The algorithm combines global and local explorations of a parameter space. The global exploration involves an out-of-equilibrium adaptive Metropolis Monte Carlo method aimed at identifying poorly connected viable regions. The local exploration then samples these regions in detail by a method we call multiple ellipsoid-based sampling. Our algorithm explores efficiently nonconvex and poorly connected viable regions of different test-problems. Most importantly, its computational effort scales linearly with the number of dimensions, in contrast to "brute force" sampling that shows an exponential dependence on the number of dimensions. We also apply this algorithm to a simplified model of a biochemical oscillator with positive and negative feedback loops. A detailed characterization of the model's viable space captures well known structural properties of circadian oscillators. Concretely, we find that model topologies with an essential negative feedback loop and a nonessential positive feedback loop provide the most robust fixed period oscillations. Moreover, the connectedness of the model's viable space suggests that biochemical oscillators with varying topologies can evolve from one another.ConclusionsOur algorithm permits an efficient analysis of high-dimensional, nonconvex, and poorly connected viable spaces characteristic of complex biological circuitry. It allows a systematic use of robustness as a tool for model discrimination.

Dataset Information

Centroid estimation in discrete high-dimensional spaces with applications in biology.

Publications

Centroid estimation in discrete high-dimensional spaces with applications in biology.

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