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The analysis of relapse-free survival curves: implications for evaluating intensive systemic adjuvant treatment regimens for breast cancer.

ABSTRACT: Results of adjuvant dose intensification studies in patients with localised breast cancer have raised questions regarding the clinical usefulness of this treatment strategy. Here, we develop and fit a natural history model for the time to clinical tumour recurrence as a function of the number of involved lymph nodes, and derive plausible predictions of the effects of dose intensification under various conditions. The time to tumour recurrence is assumed to depend on the residual postoperative micrometastatic burden of tumour, the fractional reduction of residual tumour burden (RTB) by treatment, and the rate of regrowth of the RTB to a clinically detectable size. It is assumed that a proportion of micrometastatic tumours are unresponsive to adjuvant chemotherapy even at maximal dose intensity. Data fitted included the San Antonio Cancer Institute (SACI) database of untreated patients, and CALGB #9082, a study comparing a highly intensive and moderately intensity adjuvant regimen in patients with 10+ positive axillary nodes. The proportion of tumours unresponsive to maximally intensive adjuvant treatment is estimated to be 48% (29-67%). The estimated log kill for intermediate-dose therapy from CALGB #9082 was 6.5 logs, compared with 9 logs or greater for high-dose therapy. The model is consistent with a modest but nonnegligible advantage of dose intensification compared with standard therapies in patients with sensitive tumours who have 10+ positive axillary nodes, and suggests that much of this clinical benefit could be achieved using intermediate levels of treatment intensification. The model further suggests that, in patients with fewer than 10 involved axillary nodes, any advantage of treatment intensification over standard therapy would be much reduced, because in patients with smaller tumour burdens of sensitive tumour, a larger proportion of cures achievable with intensified therapy could be achieved as well with standard therapy.

SUBMITTER: Day RS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2361755 | biostudies-other | 2005 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:BackgroundMetastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) is a highly heterogeneous disease from a clinical, molecular, and immunological perspective. Current predictive models rely primarily in tissue based genetic analysis, which not always correlate with inflammatory response. Here we evaluated the role of a circulating inflammatory signature as a prognostic marker in mCRC.MethodsTwo hundred eleven newly diagnosed patients with mCRC were enrolled in the study. One hundred twenty-one patients had unresectable metastases, whereas ninety patients had potentially resectable liver metastases at presentation. Analysis of miR-21, IL-6, and IL-8 in the plasma of peripheral blood was performed at baseline. Patients with high circulating levels of ≥2 of the three inflammation markers (miR-21, IL-6, and IL-8) were considered to have the "Inflammation phenotype-positive CISIG".ResultsPositive CISIG was found in 39/90 (43%) and 50/121 (45%) patients in the resectable and unresectable cohort, respectively. In the resectable population the median relapse-free survival was 18.4 compared to 31.4 months (p = 0.001 HR 2.09, 95% CI 1.2-3.67) for positive vs. negative CISIG. In contrast, the individual components were not significant. In the same population the median overall survival was 46.2 compared to 66.0 months (p = 0.0003, HR 2.57, 95% CI 1.26-5.27) for positive vs. negative CISIG, but not significant for the individual components. In the unresectable population, the median overall survival was 13.5 compared to 25.0 months (p = 0.0008, HR 2.49, 95% CI 1.46-4.22) for positive vs. negative CISIG. IL-6 was independently prognostic with overall survival of 16.2 compared to 27.0 months (p = 0.004, HR 1.96, 95% CI 1.24-3.11) for high vs. low IL-6, but not the other components. Using a Cox regression model, we demonstrated that CISIG is an independent predictive marker of survival in patients with unresectable disease (HR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2, 2.8, p < 0.01).ConclusionIn two different cohorts, we demonstrated that CISIG is a strong prognostic factor of relapse-free and overall survival of patients with mCRC. Based on these data, analysis of circulating inflammatory signaling can be complimentary to traditional molecular testing.

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The analysis of relapse-free survival curves: implications for evaluating intensive systemic adjuvant treatment regimens for breast cancer.

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