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Risk prediction of cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes: a risk equation from the Swedish National Diabetes Register.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE: Risk prediction models obtained in samples from the general population do not perform well in type 2 diabetic patients. Recently, 5-year risk estimates were proposed as being more accurate than 10-year risk estimates. This study presents a diabetes-specific equation for estimation of the absolute 5-year risk of first incident fatal/nonfatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type 2 diabetic patients with use of A1C and clinical characteristics. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The study was based on 11,646 female and male patients, aged 18-70 years, from the Swedish National Diabetes Register with 1,482 first incident CVD events based on 58,342 person-years with mean follow-up of 5.64 years. RESULTS: This risk equation incorporates A1C, as in the UK Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine, and several clinical characteristics: onset age of diabetes, diabetes duration, sex, BMI, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and antihypertensive and lipid-reducing drugs. All predictors included were associated with the outcome (P < 0.0001, except for BMI P = 0.0016) with Cox regression analysis. Calibration was excellent when assessed by comparing observed and predicted risk. Discrimination was sufficient, with a receiver operator curve statistic of 0.70. Mean 5-year risk of CVD in all patients was 12.0 +/- 7.5%, whereas 54% of the patients had a 5-year risk >or=10%. CONCLUSIONS: This more simplified risk equation enables 5-year risk prediction of CVD based on easily available nonlaboratory predictors in clinical practice and A1C and was elaborated in a large observational study obtained from the normal patient population aged up to 70 years.

SUBMITTER: Cederholm J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2551651 | biostudies-other | 2008 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:BackgroundManagement of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) encompasses intensive glycaemic control, along with treatment of comorbidities and complications to handle the increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Improved control of LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) with lipid-lowering medications is associated with reduced CVD risk in T2DM patients. Thus, treatment guidelines recommend lipid-lowering medications for T2DM patients with LDL-C above risk-associated thresholds. This study aimed to assess healthcare provider adherence to guidelines regarding lipid-lowering medication prescription among T2DM patients and to analyse factors associated with lipid-lowering medication prescription.MethodsObservations in 2007?-?2014 for T2DM patients age???18 were collected from the Swedish National Diabetes Register. Observations were excluded if they lacked information about LDL-C, lipid-lowering medication prescription or CVD. Observations with established CVD were attributed to secondary prevention; remaining observations were attributed to primary prevention. The analyses included primary and secondary prevention observations with LDL-C above risk-associated thresholds (LDL-C???2.5?mmol/l and LDL-C???1.8?mmol/l respectively). Guideline adherence was analysed as the probability of prescribing lipid-lowering medications using mixed-effect model regression adjusted for potential confounders. Factors associated with prescribing lipid-lowering medications were analysed for patient and healthcare provider characteristics using mixed-effect model regression and odds ratio.ResultsA total of 1,204,376 observations from 322,046 patients reported by 1352 healthcare providers were included. Primary prevention accounted for 63%; 52% were men, mean age was 64 and mean LDL-C was 3.4?mmol/l. For secondary prevention, 60% were men, mean age was 72 and mean LDL-C was 2.7?mmol/l. During 2007-2014, guideline adherence ranged from 36 to 47% for primary prevention and 59 to 69% for secondary prevention. In general, concomitant prescription of diabetes medications, antiplatelets and antihypertensives along with smoking and specialised care were associated with higher prescription of lipid-lowering medications. Patients age???80 were associated with lower prescription of lipid-lowering medications. Higher prescription was associated with longer diabetes duration in primary prevention and men in secondary prevention.ConclusionsAdherence to treatment guidelines levelled off after an initial increase in both prevention groups. Lipid-lowering medication prescription was based on individualised CVD risk.

Project description:AIMS/HYPOTHESIS:The reasons underlying a greater association of premature mortality with early-onset type 2 diabetes relative to late-onset disease are unclear. We evaluated the clinical characteristics at type 2 diabetes diagnosis and the broad trajectories in cardiometabolic risk factors over the initial years following diagnosis in relation to age at diagnosis. METHODS:Our cohort consisted of 100,606 individuals with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes enrolled in the Swedish National Diabetes Register from 2002 to 2012. The average follow-up time was 2.8 years. Analyses were performed using a linear mixed-effects model for continuous risk factors and a mixed generalised linear model with a logistic link function for dichotomous risk factors. RESULTS:The individuals diagnosed at the youngest age (18-44 years) were more often male and had the highest BMI (mean of 33.4 kg/m2) at diagnosis and during follow-up compared with all other groups (those diagnosed at 45-59 years, 60-74 years and ≥75 years; p < 0.05), being ~5 kg/m2 higher than the oldest group. Although HbA1c patterns were similar between all age groups, there was a difference of about 5 mmol/mol (0.45%) between the two groups at 8 years post-diagnosis (p < 0.05). Additionally, individuals diagnosed younger had ~0.7 mmol/l higher triacylglycerol, and ~0.2 mmol/l lower HDL-cholesterol levels at diagnosis relative to the oldest group. Such differences continued for several years post diagnosis. Yet, although more of these younger individuals were receiving oral glucose-lowering agents, other cardioprotective therapies were prescribed less often in this group. Differences in BMI, blood glucose and lipid levels remained with adjustment for potential confounders, including marital status, education and country of birth, and, where relevant, differential treatments by age, and in those with at least 5 years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION:Individuals who develop type 2 diabetes at a younger age are more frequently obese, display a more adverse lipid profile, have higher HbA1c and a faster deterioration in glycaemic control compared with individuals who develop diabetes later in life. These differences largely remain for several years after diagnosis and support the notion that early-onset type 2 diabetes may be a more pathogenic condition than late-onset disease.

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Risk prediction of cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes: a risk equation from the Swedish National Diabetes Register.

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