Validation of a prognostic nomogram in patients undergoing resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma in a UK tertiary referral centre.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Clark EJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC2597327 | biostudies-other | 2008
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:ObjectivesThis study aimed to develop and externally validate a nomogram for predicting liver metastasis after radical resection in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).MethodsA total of 247 PDAC patients who underwent radical resection were retrospectively reviewed from January 2015 to March 2022 at Ningbo Medical Centre Lihuili Hospital Eastern Section, and used as a training cohort to develop the nomogram. 83 PDAC patients from the Ningbo Medical Centre Lihuili Hospital Xingning Section were enrolled as the validation cohort. The postoperative liver metastasis was recorded during the follow-up, and the liver metastasis-free survival was defined as the time from operation to the date of liver metastasis diagnosis or death. The nomogram was established based on independent prognostic factors selected by LASSO and multivariate Cox regression model. The performance was assessed using the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to determine the clinical utility of the nomogram model.ResultsFrom the training cohort of 247 patients, a total of 132 patients developed liver metastasis during the follow-up, the 1-, 2- and 3- year liver metastasis-free survival were 52.4%, 43.5% and 40% respectively. The LASSO and multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that postoperative CA125 (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.007, p <0.001), tumor differentiation (HR = 1.640, p = 0.010), tumor size (HR = 1.520, p = 0.029), lymph node ratio (HR = 1.897, p = 0.002) and portal/superior mesenteric/splenic vein invasion degree (PV/SMV/SV) (HR = 2.829, p <0.001) were the independent factors of liver metastasis. A nomogram with independent factors was developed and the C-index was 0.760 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.720-0.799) and 0.739 (95% CI, 0.669-0.810) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The areas under curve (AUC) of the nomogram at 1-, 2- and 3-year were 0.815, 0.803 and 0.773 in the training cohort, and 0.765, 0.879 and 0.908 in the validation cohort, respectively, higher than those in TNM stage. Decision curve analysis (DCA) analysis revealed that the nomogram model provided superior net benefit in clinical utility. Liver metastasis-free survival curves showed a significant discriminatory ability for liver metastasis risk based on the nomogram (p <0.001).ConclusionsThe nomogram showed high accuracy in predicting liver metastasis for PDAC after radical resection, and may serve as a clinical support tool to guide personalized and prescient intervention.
| S-EPMC9720266 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is one of the most lethal and aggressive cancers with a less than 6% five-year survival rate. Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) are emerging as a useful tool for non-invasive diagnosis and prognosis estimation in the various cancer types, including PDAC. Our study aimed to evaluate whether miRNAs in the pre-operative blood plasma specimen have the potential to predict the prognosis of PDAC patients. In total, 112 PDAC patients planned for surgical resection were enrolled in our prospective study. To identify prognostic miRNAs, we used small RNA sequencing in 24 plasma samples of PDAC patients with poor prognosis (overall survival (OS) < 16 months) and 24 plasma samples of PDAC patients with a good prognosis (OS > 20 months). qPCR validation of selected miRNA candidates was performed in the independent cohort of PDAC patients (n = 64). In the discovery phase of the study, we identified 44 miRNAs with significantly different levels in the plasma samples of the group of good and poor prognosis patients. Among these miRNAs, 23 showed lower levels, and 21 showed higher levels in plasma specimens from PDAC patients with poor prognosis. Eleven miRNAs were selected for the validation, but only miR-99a-5p and miR-365a-3p were confirmed to have significantly lower levels and miR-200c-3p higher levels in plasma samples of poor prognosis cases. Using the combination of these 3-miRNA levels, we were able to identify the patients with poor prognosis with sensitivity 85% and specificity 80% (Area Under the Curve = 0.890). Overall, 3-miRNA prognostic score associated with OS was identified in the pre-operative blood plasma samples of PDAC patients undergoing surgical resection. Following further independent validations, the detection of these miRNA may enable identification of PDAC patients who have no survival benefit from the surgical treatment, which is associated with the high morbidity rates.
| S-EPMC7464450 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveThe objective was to review COVID-19 vaccine allergy advice and guidance requests received and assess the impact of advice outcome on vaccination outcome.DesignA retrospective analysis of requests for advice and guidance regarding COVID-19 vaccine allergy was completed using an electronic referral system from February 2021 to January 2022.ParticipantsA total of 1265 independent patient requests for advice were received from primary care. Full vaccination information was available on 1210 patients who were included in the analysis.Main outcome measuresWe evaluated the specific outcome of request for advice (written advice versus allergy consultation), rate of vaccination, vaccination combinations, and tolerance of vaccination.ResultsOf the 1210 patients included, 959 (79%) were female. Eight hundred and ninety-six (74%) requests were managed with written advice only and of these 675 (75%) patients went on to be vaccinated. Overall, 891 (74%) of the population were vaccinated with 2 or more doses.Two hundred and nineteen patient consultations were undertaken with 109 (50%) prior to the first vaccination. Forty-nine (45%) consultations prior to vaccination were undertaken due to a label of anaphylaxis to vaccination in the past. Vaccination was recommended for all patients, and 78 (72%) of these received a first dose. Eight of these patients (10%) had symptoms within 1 h of vaccine administration.One hundred and ten (50%) consultations were undertaken for adverse reactions post COVID-19 vaccination, with 84 (76%) concerning immediate symptoms. Thirty patients (27%) who had a consultation had had adrenaline administered post vaccination. One patient had biopsy confirmed Stevens Johnson Syndrome and was referred to Dermatology. All others due for further doses (107 patients) were recommended to have subsequent doses with 49 (45%) offered the same vaccine. Eighty-nine patients had a vaccine administered post adverse reaction and 79 (88%) tolerated the dose.Skin testing and challenge to polyethylene glycol were negative in the 8 patients tested.ConclusionsOver 1000 requests for advice and guidance were received during the review period, managed mainly with written advice. The overwhelming majority of requests for advice and consultations were for females, with equal distribution both pre- and post-COVID-19 vaccine administration. Vaccination was recommended in all but 1 patient (with biopsy confirmed Stevens Johnson Syndrome). Polyethylene glycol allergy was not confirmed in any patient, nor did any patient have confirmed anaphylaxis when the vaccine was administered under our supervision, suggesting that type 1 mediated hypersensitivity is uncommon even in this "high risk" population.
| S-EPMC9825055 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeMicrobial keratitis (MK) is the most common non-surgical ophthalmic emergency admission in the UK. However, few prospective health-economic studies of MK have been performed, and no specific healthcare resources group (HRG) code exists. This study is designed to determine the feasibility of a data collection tool derived from the microbiology ophthalmology group (MOG) clinical record form, to enable quantification of direct costs of inpatient care, as well as prospective capture of epidemiological data relating to outcomes of MK.MethodsClinical, demographic and economic data were collected retrospectively between January and December 2013 for 101 consecutive patients admitted with MK, using an adaption of the MOG toolset. The direct cost of admission (COA) was calculated using national reference costs and compared to actual income to generate profit/deficit profiles for individual patients. Indices of multiple deprivation were used to assess effect of deprivation on the COA.ResultsThe total income generated through discharge coding was £252,116, compared to a COA of £357,075, yielding a deficit of £104,960 (median: £754 per patient). The cost deficit increased significantly with length of stay (LOS, p < 0.001), whilst patients with short LOS were income generators; cost neutrality occurred at 4.8 days. Greater socioeconomic deprivation was also associated with a significantly higher cost deficit.ConclusionLOS is the key driver for COA of care for MK admissions. Protocols should encourage discharge of patients who are able to self-administer treatment after the sterilisation phase. The MOG-derived data collection toolset captures pertinent clinical data for quantification of COA. Further development into a multiuser and multisite platform is required for robust prospective testing, together with expansion to capture indirect costs of disease burden, including impact of treatment, visual morbidity and quality of life.
| S-EPMC8302743 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Different clinical presentations and prognoses have been implied between pancreatic head and body/tail cancers. We aimed to identify the prognostic relevance of primary tumor location in patients undergoing resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Thirty-two pairs of patients with strictly matched early stage (II) pancreatic head and body/tail cancers were enrolled. The molecular feature of the two subtypes of PDAC was assessed on the level of miRNA expression. Out of the 64 patients, 34 (53.1%) had tumor recurrence after radical resection during the follow-up period (2.3 ± 0.8 years). Both overall and tumor-free survival were significantly higher in the patients with pancreatic body/tail cancer compared with those with pancreatic head cancer. Patient age and tumor location were the independent prognostic factors for tumor recurrence. A remarkably lower expression of miR-501-3p and higher expression of miR-375 were found and were further verified in pancreatic body/tail cancer tissues compared with pancreatic head cancer tissues. The low expression of miR-501-3p was significantly associated with a low risk of tumor recurrence. Both, subcutaneous and orthotopic PDAC mouse models presented highly invasive tumor phenotypes upon up-regulated miR-501-3p expression. An in vitro study showed that miR-501-3p promoted the invasiveness of PDAC cells possibly via suppressing E-cadherin. In summary, at resectable early stage, pancreatic body/tail cancer presents a less malignant phenotype associated with deregulation of miR-501-3p compared with pancreatic head cancer.
| S-EPMC5362475 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundElevated plasma D-dimer levels have been reported as an unfavorable prognostic indicator in many solid tumors. However, there are limited relevant studies in pancreatic cancer patients following radical surgery, and the clinical significance remains controversial. The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical and prognostic significance of preoperative plasma D-dimer in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) undergoing resection.MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed on all patients who consecutively underwent radical surgery for PDAC by laparotomy or robotic surgery from December 2011 to December 2018. Baseline clinicopathologic characteristics, preoperative laboratory parameters, and follow-up information were collected. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to analyze the prognostic value of preoperative plasma D-dimer.ResultsAmong 1351 patients, elevated preoperative plasma D-dimer levels (≥ 0.55 ng/mL) were found in 417 (30.9%) patients. Three hundred twelve (23.09%) underwent minimally invasive robotic pancreatectomy. The median overall survival (OS) of patients with elevated D-dimer levels was 6.3 months shorter than that of patients with normal D-dimer levels (15.0 months vs 21.3 months, p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that elevated D-dimer levels independently predicted poorer OS (hazard ratio, 1.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-1.51, p < 0.001). Subgroup analysis demonstrated that D-dimer was a reliable prognostic factor in patients who underwent R0 resection. In addition, integration of D-dimer, carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), and NLR provided a better prognostic model for PDAC patients before operation.ConclusionAn elevated preoperative plasma D-dimer level was a reliable independent prognostic factor for OS in patients with PDAC undergoing resection. Combination of D-dimer, CA19-9, and NLR can enhance the prognostic accuracy before operation.
| S-EPMC8191214 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPancreatic head ductal adenocarcinoma (PHDAC) patients with the same tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage may share different outcomes after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). Therefore, a novel method to identify patients with poor prognosis after PD is urgently needed. We aimed to develop a nomogram to estimate survival in PHDAC after PD.MethodsTo estimate survival after PD, a nomogram was developed using the Tongji Pancreatic cancer cohort comprising 355 PHDAC patients who underwent PD. The nomogram was validated under the same conditions in another cohort (N = 161) from the National Taiwan University Hospital. Prognostic factors were assessed using LASSO and multivariate Cox regression models. The nomogram was internally validated using bootstrap resampling and then externally validated. Performance was assessed using concordance index (c-index) and calibration curve. Clinical utility was evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA), X-tile program, and Kaplan-Meier curve in both training and validation cohorts.ResultsOverall, the median follow-up duration was 32.17 months, with 199 deaths (64.82%) in the training cohort. Variables included in the nomogram were age, preoperative CA 19-9 levels, adjuvant chemotherapy, Tongji classification, T stage, N stage, and differentiation degree. Harrell's c-indices in the internal and external validation cohorts were 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-0.82) and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.78-0.87), respectively, which were higher than those in other staging systems. DCA showed better clinical utility.ConclusionThe nomogram was better than TNM stage and Tongji classification in predicting PHDAC patients' prognosis and may improve prognosis-based selection of patients who would benefit from PD.
| S-EPMC8514110 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study aimed to develop and validate an effective prognostic nomogram for advanced PDAC patients. We conducted a prospective multicenter cohort study involving 1,526 advanced PDAC patients from three participating hospitals in China between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2013. Two thirds of the patients were randomly assigned to the training set (n = 1,017), and one third were assigned to the validation set (n = 509). Multivariate cox regression analysis was performed to identify significant prognostic factors for overall survival to develop the nomogram. Internal and external validation using C-index and calibration curve were conducted in the training set and validation set respectively. As results, seven independent prognostic factors were identified: age, tumor stage, tumor size, ALT (alanine aminotransferase), ALB (albumin), CA 19-9, HBV infection status, and these factors were entered into the nomogram. The proposed nomogram showed favorable discrimination and calibration both in the training set and validation set. The C-indexes of the training set and validation set were 0.720 and 0.696 respectively, which were both significantly higher than that of the staging system (C-index = 0.613, P < 0.001). In conclusion, the proposed nomogram may be served as an effective tool for prognostic evaluation of advanced PDAC.
| S-EPMC5599641 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The GMC states that, 'You must be satisfied that, when you are off duty, suitable arrangements have been made for your patients' medical care…including effective hand-over procedures' [1]. The medical weekend handover system at this tertiary referral centre involved multiple pieces of paper with no clear list of tasks, and no way to identify critically unwell patients. Patients could be missed from the ward round or could be difficult to identify under pressure. The authors felt this process could pose a threat to patient safety so decided to improve it. A questionnaire was distributed to all 11 medical SHOs with 100% response rate. Results showed that 72% thought the process was unstructured, 81% did not think the process was always safe, and 100% thought it could be improved. After discussions with senior medical management and with the approval of the trust audit committee, a new weekend handover proforma was designed, taking into consideration the results and comments from the questionnaire. The new proforma is accessible through a shared drive, which can be accessed by all medical SHOs in the hospital. Each team is able to copy their patients onto the combined ward-based list. There are columns for specific weekend jobs and registrar/SHO reviews. Any potentially unwell patients are highlighted in bold and discussed with the on-call SHO on Friday. All medical SHOs were given a post-implementation questionnaire after the new handover process had been in place for two months. Results of this showed that 100% of SHOs felt an improvement had been made, with 100% stating that the new system was more structured (64% always, 36% most of the time). The SHO's perception of patient safety increased from 81% generally unsafe, to 100% generally safe. The new handover has been well received and supported by the current SHO cohort. Improvements in the structure of handover have been made with perceived improvements in patient safety. Due to the success of the system, the handover proforma is being implemented in the trust's sister hospital.
| S-EPMC4652704 | biostudies-literature
Project description:There are currently limited data regarding paediatric Behçet's disease (BD), particularly in the UK. We describe the clinical spectrum, treatment and outcome of BD, and explore the relative sensitivities of the criteria for the diagnosis of BD in a UK paediatric cohort. Single retrospective case note review of children with a clinical diagnosis of BD presenting between 1987 and 2012. Demographics, clinical features, treatment and outcomes were recorded. The sensitivities of the International Study Group (ISG) and International Criteria for BD (ICBD) criteria were explored. BD disease activity was calculated using the Behçet's Disease Activity Index (BDAI). Forty-six patients (22 male) were identified. Median age of onset was 4.87 (0.04-15.71) years; median time to diagnosis was 3.74 (0.25-13.48) years. Clinical features were recurrent oral ulceration (97.8 %), recurrent genital ulceration (73.9 %), gastrointestinal (58.7 %), musculoskeletal (47.83 %), cutaneous (23.9 %) involvement and uveitis (2 %). Recurrent genital ulceration was more common in female patients (P = 0.044). Thirty-seven patients (80.4 %) fulfilled the ICBD criteria; only 12 patients (26.1 %) fulfilled the ISG criteria. BDAI score at diagnosis was 7/20 (0-10/20) and significantly decreased to 5/20 (0-9/20) (P < 0.0001) at latest follow-up. The commonest systemic treatment was colchicine (76.1 %); anti-TNFα treatment was reserved for severe cases (15.5 %). Paediatric BD in the UK may present very early in life, sometimes with a family history, and with a low incidence of ocular involvement. Diagnostic delay is common. The majority of our patients required systemic therapy; anti-TNFα was reserved for severe cases and has largely superseded the use of thalidomide.
| S-EPMC5031738 | biostudies-literature