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Predicting current and future biological invasions: both native and invaded ranges matter.

ABSTRACT: The classical approach to predicting the geographical extent of species invasions consists of training models in the native range and projecting them in distinct, potentially invasible areas. However, recent studies have demonstrated that this approach could be hampered by a change of the realized climatic niche, allowing invasive species to spread into habitats in the invaded ranges that are climatically distinct from those occupied in the native range. We propose an alternative approach that involves fitting models with pooled data from all ranges. We show that this pooled approach improves prediction of the extent of invasion of spotted knapweed (Centaurea maculosa) in North America on models based solely on the European native range. Furthermore, it performs equally well on models based on the invaded range, while ensuring the inclusion of areas with similar climate to the European niche, where the species is likely to spread further. We then compare projections from these models for 2080 under a severe climate warming scenario. Projections from the pooled models show fewer areas of intermediate climatic suitability than projections from the native or invaded range models, suggesting a better consensus among modelling techniques and reduced uncertainty.

SUBMITTER: Broennimann O

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2610080 | biostudies-other | 2008 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Predicting current and future biological invasions: both native and invaded ranges matter.

Broennimann Olivier O Guisan Antoine A

Biology letters 20081001 5

The classical approach to predicting the geographical extent of species invasions consists of training models in the native range and projecting them in distinct, potentially invasible areas. However, recent studies have demonstrated that this approach could be hampered by a change of the realized climatic niche, allowing invasive species to spread into habitats in the invaded ranges that are climatically distinct from those occupied in the native range. We propose an alternative approach that i ...[more]

PMID: 18664415

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Project description:The extent and impacts of biological invasions on biodiversity are largely shaped by an array of socio-economic and environmental factors, which exhibit high variation among countries. Yet, a global analysis of how these factors vary across countries is currently lacking. Here, we investigate how five broad, country-specific socio-economic and environmental indices (Governance, Trade, Environmental Performance, Lifestyle and Education, Innovation) explain country-level (1) established alien species (EAS) richness of eight taxonomic groups, and (2) proactive or reactive capacity to prevent and manage biological invasions and their impacts. These indices underpin many aspects of the invasion process, including the introduction, establishment, spread and management of alien species. They are also general enough to enable a global comparison across countries, and are therefore essential for defining future scenarios for biological invasions. Models including Trade, Governance, Lifestyle and Education, or a combination of these, best explained EAS richness across taxonomic groups and national proactive or reactive capacity. Historical (1996 or averaged over 1996-2015) levels of Governance and Trade better explained both EAS richness and the capacity of countries to manage invasions than more recent (2015) levels, revealing a historical legacy with important implications for the future of biological invasions. Using Governance and Trade to define a two-dimensional socio-economic space in which the position of a country captures its capacity to address issues of biological invasions, we identified four main clusters of countries in 2015. Most countries had an increase in Trade over the past 25 years, but trajectories were more geographically heterogeneous for Governance. Declines in levels of Governance are concerning as they may be responsible for larger levels of invasions in the future. By identifying the factors influencing EAS richness and the regions most susceptible to changes in these factors, our results provide novel insights to integrate biological invasions into scenarios of biodiversity change to better inform decision-making for policy and the management of biological invasions.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-022-01166-3.

Project description:Impulsivity (rash action with deleterious outcomes) is common to many psychiatric disorders. While some studies indicate altered amygdala and prefrontal cortical (PFC) activity associated with impulsivity, it remains unclear whether these patterns of neural activity are specific to impulsivity or common to a range of affective and anxiety symptoms. To elucidate neural markers specific to impulsivity, we aimed to differentiate patterns of amygdala-PFC activity and functional connectivity associated with impulsivity from those associated with affective and anxiety symptoms, and identify measures of this circuitry predicting future worsening of impulsivity. Using a face emotion processing task that reliably activates amygdala-PFC circuitry, neural activity and connectivity were assessed in a transdiagnostically-recruited sample of young adults, including healthy (N = 47) and treatment-seeking individuals (N = 67). Relationships were examined between neural measures and impulsivity, anhedonia, and affective and anxiety symptoms at baseline (N = 114), and at 6 months post scan (N = 30). Impulsivity, particularly negative urgency and lack of perseverance, was related to greater amygdala activity (beta = 0.82, p = 0.003; beta = 0.68, p = 0.004; respectively) and lower amygdala-medial PFC functional connectivity (voxels = 60, tpeak = 4.45, pFWE = 0.017; voxels = 335, tpeak = 5.26, pFWE = 0.001; respectively) to facial fear. Left vlPFC, but not amygdala, activity to facial anger was inversely associated with mania/hypomania (beta = -2.08, p = 0.018). Impulsivity 6 months later was predicted by amygdala activity to facial sadness (beta = 0.50, p = 0.017). There were no other significant relationships between neural activity and 6-month anhedonia, affective, and anxiety symptoms. Our findings are the first to associate amygdala-PFC activity and functional connectivity with impulsivity in a large, transdiagnostic sample, providing neural targets for future interventions to reduce predisposition to impulsivity and related future mental health problems in young adults.

Dataset Information

Predicting current and future biological invasions: both native and invaded ranges matter.

Publications

Predicting current and future biological invasions: both native and invaded ranges matter.

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