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Do new drugs increase life expectancy? A critique of a Manhattan Institute paper.

ABSTRACT: A recent study published by the Manhattan Institute, "Why Has Longevity Increased More in Some States than in Others? The Role of Medical Innovation and Other Factors," purported to show that the more rapid adoption of new drugs has substantial benefits in the form of increased life expectancy, higher productivity and lower non-drug health care expenditures. This study has been cited as evidence supporting the more rapid acceptance of new drugs in Medicaid, Medicare, and other public programs and has helped to shape public debate on the value of new drugs. This analysis questions the key conclusions of the study. It points out that the key statistical regressions appear to be misspecified, since they show anomalies such as a negative correlation between income growth and life expectancy and find no relationship between education and productivity growth. Methodological flaws addressed include lack of adjustment for infant mortality rates; inadequate proxy measures of health status; lack of adjustment for ages of individuals and other sociodemographic factors; inherent problems with the definition of drug age, or 'vintage;' and the failure to consider reverse causation as an obvious explanation for several findings. The Manhattan Institute study does not provide reliable evidence for favoring adoption of newer drugs in either public or private health care programs.

SUBMITTER: Baker D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2669876 | biostudies-other | 2009 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:BackgroundFew studies have investigated the change in life expectancy (LE) and the healthy lifespan among patients with advanced schistosomiasis. This study was to evaluate the LE and healthy life expectancy (HLE) for patients and assess the mechanism responsible for the LE inequality.MethodsWe utilized data from a dynamic advanced schistosomiasis cohort (10,362 patients) for the period from January 2008 to December 2019 in Hunan Province, China, to calculate the LEs of patients, and made a comparison with that of general population (19,642 schistosomiasis-free individuals) in the schistosomiasis endemic areas. LEs were estimated from 15 years of age by constructing period life tables. Arriaga's decomposition method was applied to quantify the influence of the age structure on the difference in LE. HLE for advanced schistosomiasis patients was calculated by using Sullivan method with age-specific disability weight. The LE and HLE were calculated for both males and females to perform further analyses on gender gap.ResultsThe estimated LE for advanced schistosomiasis patients aged 15-19 was 49.51 years (48.86 years for males and 51.07 years for females), which was 20.14 years lower compared with general population (69.65 years), and the LE gap between patients and general population decreased with age. The largest age-specific mortality contribution to the gap (32.06%) occurred at age 80-84 years. Women had a lower LE and HLE than men at age ≥ 60 years (both gender gaps in LE and HLE < 0). For advanced schistosomiasis patients, the gender gap in LE was largely attributed to the difference in mortality among those under the age of 55; the age-specific mortality in women exerted positive influence on the gap at age 25-64 and 75-79 years, with the contribution rate ranging from 0.59% to 57.02%, and made the negative contribution at other age groups.ConclusionsThe LE of advanced schistosomiasis patients was still much lower compared with general population. Strengthened prevention strategies and targeted treatments are needed to reduce morbidity and mortality due to advanced schistosomiasis, especially for younger population and elderly female patients.

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Do new drugs increase life expectancy? A critique of a Manhattan Institute paper.

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