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A case-cohort study for the disease natural history of adenoma-carcinoma and de novo carcinoma and surveillance of colon and rectum after polypectomy: implication for efficacy of colonoscopy.

ABSTRACT: The disease natural history of colorectal neoplasm regarding two opposing theories, adenoma-carcinoma sequence and de novo carcinoma theory, is controversial and rarely quantified. The aims of this study are therefore to estimate the dwelling times of adenoma-carcinoma sequence by adenoma size and histological type, taking de novo carcinoma into account. The efficacy of polypectomy was therefore estimated making allowance for two pathways. A case-cohort design, underpinning a cohort with 13 908 subjects (including 10 496 normal subjects, 2652 polyps, 760 colorectal cancers) who underwent the first examination of colonoscopy between 1979 and 1998, was devised to estimate parameters associated with two opposing theories by randomly selecting 305 normal subjects, 300 patients with polyps, and 116 colorectal cancers from the cohort. All the 2652 polyps were linked to national cancer registry to ascertain 25 invasive carcinomas after polypectomy. For the five-state model associated with adenoma size, dwelling times of small (0.6-1 cm) and large adenoma (>1 cm) are 7.75 and 5.27 years for the model without considering de novo, and 17.48 and 15.90 years for the model taking de novo carcinoma into account. Similar findings are observed for the model associated with histological type. The estimated proportions of de novo carcinoma are 31.87% from the model by adenoma size and 27.81% from the model by histological type. Compared to size less than 5 mm, patients with adenoma size between 6 and 10 mm and patients with adenoma size larger than 1 cm have 2.17-fold (0.67-10.74) and 4.25-fold (1.23-14.70), respectively, for the risk of malignant transformation. There are similar findings for the model by histological type. The estimates of overall efficacy of colonoscopy in reducing CRC is 73% for the model allowing for de novo carcinoma and 88% for the model without considering de novo carcinoma theory. The efficacy of diminutive adenoma and small adenoma increases with follow-up years, whereas the efficacy of large adenoma decreases with follow-up years. In conclusion, about 30% of cancers arising from de novo sequence are demonstrated. This finding, together with the adenoma-carcinoma sequence associated with adenoma size and histological type, is important for the estimation of dwelling times, the efficacy of colonoscopy, and the surveillance of polyp after polypectomy.

SUBMITTER: Chen CD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2741116 | biostudies-other | 2003 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:ImportancePostpolypectomy surveillance is a common colonoscopy indication in older adults; however, guidelines provide little direction on when to stop surveillance in this population.ObjectiveTo estimate surveillance colonoscopy yields in older adults.Design, setting, and participantsThis population-based cross-sectional study included individuals 70 to 85 years of age who received surveillance colonoscopy at a large, community-based US health care system between January 1, 2017, and December 31, 2019; had an adenoma detected 12 or more months previously; and had at least 1 year of health plan enrollment before surveillance. Individuals were excluded due to prior colorectal cancer (CRC), hereditary CRC syndrome, inflammatory bowel disease, or prior colectomy or if the surveillance colonoscopy had an inadequate bowel preparation or was incomplete. Data were analyzed from September 1, 2022, to February 22, 2024.ExposuresAge (70-74, 75-79, or 80-85 years) at surveillance colonoscopy and prior adenoma finding (ie, advanced adenoma vs nonadvanced adenoma).Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcomes were yields of CRC, advanced adenoma, and advanced neoplasia overall (all ages) by age group and by both age group and prior adenoma finding. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with advanced neoplasia detection at surveillance.ResultsOf 9740 surveillance colonoscopies among 9601 patients, 5895 (60.5%) were in men, and 5738 (58.9%), 3225 (33.1%), and 777 (8.0%) were performed in those aged 70-74, 75-79, and 80-85 years, respectively. Overall, CRC yields were found in 28 procedures (0.3%), advanced adenoma in 1141 (11.7%), and advanced neoplasia in 1169 (12.0%); yields did not differ significantly across age groups. Overall, CRC yields were higher for colonoscopies among patients with a prior advanced adenoma vs nonadvanced adenoma (12 of 2305 [0.5%] vs 16 of 7435 [0.2%]; P = .02), and the same was observed for advanced neoplasia (380 of 2305 [16.5%] vs 789 of 7435 [10.6%]; P < .001). Factors associated with advanced neoplasia at surveillance were prior advanced adenoma (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.65; 95% CI, 1.44-1.88), body mass index of 30 or greater vs less than 25 (AOR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.03-1.44), and having ever smoked tobacco (AOR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.01-1.30). Asian or Pacific Islander race was inversely associated with advanced neoplasia (AOR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.67-0.99).Conclusions and relevanceIn this cross-sectional study of surveillance colonoscopy yield in older adults, CRC detection was rare regardless of prior adenoma finding, whereas the advanced neoplasia yield was 12.0% overall. Yields were higher among those with a prior advanced adenoma than among those with prior nonadvanced adenoma and did not increase significantly with age. These findings can help inform whether to continue surveillance colonoscopy in older adults.

Project description:The adenoma detection rate (ADR) varies widely between physicians, possibly due to patient population differences, hampering direct ADR comparison. We developed and validated a prediction model for adenoma detection in an effort to determine if physicians' ADRs should be adjusted for patient-related factors.Screening and surveillance colonoscopy data from the cross-sectional multicenter cluster-randomized Endoscopic Quality Improvement Program-3 (EQUIP-3) study (NCT02325635) was used. The dataset was split into two cohorts based on center. A prediction model for detection of ?1 adenoma was developed using multivariable logistic regression and subsequently internally (bootstrap resampling) and geographically validated. We compared predicted to observed ADRs.The derivation (5 centers, 35 physicians, overall-ADR: 36%) and validation (4 centers, 31 physicians, overall-ADR: 40%) cohort included respectively 9934 and 10034 patients (both cohorts: 48% male, median age 60 years). Independent predictors for detection of ?1 adenoma were: age (optimism-corrected odds ratio (OR): 1.02; 95%-confidence interval (CI): 1.02-1.03), male sex (OR: 1.73; 95%-CI: 1.60-1.88), body mass index (OR: 1.02; 95%-CI: 1.01-1.03), American Society of Anesthesiology physical status class (OR class II vs. I: 1.29; 95%-CI: 1.17-1.43, OR class ?III vs. I: 1.57; 95%-CI: 1.32-1.86), surveillance versus screening (OR: 1.39; 95%-CI: 1.27-1.53), and Hispanic or Latino ethnicity (OR: 1.13; 95%-CI: 1.00-1.27). The model's discriminative ability was modest (C-statistic in the derivation: 0.63 and validation cohort: 0.60). The observed ADR was considerably lower than predicted for 12/66 (18.2%) physicians and 2/9 (22.2%) centers, and considerably higher than predicted for 18/66 (27.3%) physicians and 4/9 (44.4%) centers.The substantial variation in ADRs could only partially be explained by patient-related factors. These data suggest that ADR variation could likely also be due to other factors, e.g. physician or technical issues.

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A case-cohort study for the disease natural history of adenoma-carcinoma and de novo carcinoma and surveillance of colon and rectum after polypectomy: implication for efficacy of colonoscopy.

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