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Bayesian analysis of the species-specific lengthening of the growing season in two European countries and the influence of an insect pest.

ABSTRACT: A recent lengthening of the growing season in mid and higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere is reported as a clear indicator for climate change impacts. Using data from Germany (1951-2003) and Slovenia (1961-2004), we study whether changes in the start, end, and length of the growing season differ among four deciduous broad-leaved tree species and countries, how the changes are related to temperature changes, and what might be the confounding effects of an insect attack. The functional behaviour of the phenological and climatological time series and their trends are not analysed by linear regression, but by a new Bayesian approach taking into account different models for the functional description (one change-point, linear, constant models). We find advanced leaf unfolding in both countries with the same species order (oak > horse chestnut, beech, and birch). However, this advance is non linear over time and more apparent in Germany with clear change-points in the late 1970s, followed by marked advances (on average 3.67 days decade(-1) in the 2000s). In Slovenia, we find a more gradual advance of onset dates (on average 0.8 days decade(-1) in the 2000s). Leaf colouring of birch, beech, and oak has been slightly delayed in the last 3 decades, especially in Germany, however with no clear functional behaviour. Abrupt changes in leaf colouring dates of horse chestnut with recent advancing onset dates can be linked across countries to damage by a newly emerging pest, the horse chestnut leaf-miner (Cameraria ohridella). The lengthening of the growing season, more distinct in Germany than in Slovenia (on average 4.2 and 1.0 days decade(-1) in the 2000s, respectively), exhibits the same species order in both countries (oak > birch > beech). Damage by horse chestnut leaf-miner leads to reduced lengthening (Germany) and drastic shortening (Slovenia) of the horse chestnut growing season (-12 days decade(-1) in the 2000s). Advanced spring leaf unfolding and lengthening of the growing season of oak, beech and birch are highly significantly related to increasing March temperatures in both countries. Only beech and oak leaf unfolding in Germany, which is generally observed later in the year than that of the other two species, is more closely correlated with April temperatures, which comparably exhibit marked change-points at the end of the 1970s.

SUBMITTER: Menzel A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2757624 | biostudies-other | 2008 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:Quarantine measures to prevent insect invasions tend to focus on well-known pests but a large proportion of the recent invaders were not known to cause significant damage in their native range, or were not even known to science before their introduction. A novel method is proposed to detect new potential pests of woody plants in their region of origin before they are introduced to a new continent. Since Asia is currently considered to be the main supplier of insect invaders to Europe, sentinel trees were planted in China during 2007-2011 as an early warning tool to identify the potential for additional Asian insect species to colonize European trees. Seedlings (1-1.5 m tall) of five broadleaved (Quercus petraea, Q. suber, Q. ilex, Fagus sylvatica, and Carpinus betulus) and two conifer species (Abies alba and Cupressus sempervirens) were planted in blocks of 100 seedlings at two widely separated sites (one in a nursery near Beijing and the other in a forest environment near Fuyang in eastern China), and then regularly surveyed for colonization by insects. A total of 104 insect species, mostly defoliators, were observed on these new hosts, and at least six species were capable of larval development. Although a number of the insects observed were probably incidental feeders, 38 species had more than five colonization events, mostly infesting Q. petraea, and could be considered as being capable of switching to European trees if introduced to Europe. Three years was shown to be an appropriate duration for the experiment, since the rate of colonization then tended to plateau. A majority of the identified species appeared to have switched from agricultural crops and fruit trees rather than from forest trees. Although these results are promising, the method is not appropriate for xylophagous pests and other groups developing on larger trees. Apart from the logistical problems, the identification to species level of the specimens collected was a major difficulty. This situation could be improved by the development of molecular databases.

Project description:Background and aimsDuring the growing season, the cambium of conifer trees produces successive rows of xylem cells, the tracheids, that sequentially pass through the phases of enlargement and secondary wall thickening before dying and becoming functional. Climate variability can strongly influence the kinetics of morphogenetic processes, eventually affecting tracheid shape and size. This study investigates xylem anatomical structure in the stem of Picea abies to retrospectively infer how, in the long term, climate affects the processes of cell enlargement and wall thickening.MethodsTracheid anatomical traits related to the phases of enlargement (diameter) and wall thickening (wall thickness) were innovatively inspected at the intra-ring level on 87-year-long tree-ring series in Picea abies trees along a 900 m elevation gradient in the Italian Alps. Anatomical traits in ten successive tree-ring sectors were related to daily temperature and precipitation data using running correlations.Key resultsClose to the altitudinal tree limit, low early-summer temperature negatively affected cell enlargement. At lower elevation, water availability in early summer was positively related to cell diameter. The timing of these relationships shifted forward by about 20 (high elevation) to 40 (low elevation) d from the first to the last tracheids in the ring. Cell wall thickening was affected by climate in a different period in the season. In particular, wall thickness of late-formed tracheids was strongly positively related to August-September temperature at high elevation.ConclusionsMorphogenesis of tracheids sequentially formed in the growing season is influenced by climate conditions in successive periods. The distinct climate impacts on cell enlargement and wall thickening indicate that different morphogenetic mechanisms are responsible for different tracheid traits. Our approach of long-term and high-resolution analysis of xylem anatomy can support and extend short-term xylogenesis observations, and increase our understanding of climate control of tree growth and functioning under different environmental conditions.

Project description:Japanese larch (Larix kaempferi (Lamb.) Carr.) and its hybrid are economically important coniferous trees widely grown in the Northern Hemisphere. Ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations have increased since the pre-industrial era, and research projects showed that Japanese larch is susceptible to elevated O3 exposures. Therefore, methodologies are needed to (1) protect Japanese larch against O3 damage and (2) conduct biomonitoring of O3 in Japanese larch forests and, thus, monitor O3 risks to Japanese larch. For the first time, this study evaluates whether the synthetic chemical ethylenediurea (EDU) can protect Japanese larch against O3 damage, in two independent experiments. In the first experiment, seedling communities, simulating natural regeneration, were treated with EDU (0, 100, 200, and 400 mg L?1) and exposed to either ambient or elevated O3 in a growing season. In the second experiment, individually-grown saplings were treated with EDU (0, 200 and 400 mg L?1) and exposed to ambient O3 in two growing seasons and to elevated O3 in the succeeding two growing seasons. The two experiments revealed that EDU concentrations of 200–400 mg L?1 could protect Japanese larch seedling communities and individual saplings against O3-induced inhibition of growth and productivity. However, EDU concentrations???200 mg L?1 did offer only partial protection when seedling communities were coping with higher level of O3-induced stress, and only 400 mg EDU L?1 fully protected communities under higher stress. Therefore, we conclude that among the concentrations tested the concentration offering maximum protection to Japanese larch plants under high competition and O3-induced stress is that of 400 mg EDU L?1. The results of this study can provide a valuable resource of information for applied forestry in an O3-polluted world. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s11676-020-01223-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Bayesian analysis of the species-specific lengthening of the growing season in two European countries and the influence of an insect pest.

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