Index to predict 5-year mortality of community-dwelling adults aged 65 and older using data from the National Health Interview Survey.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Schonberg MA
PROVIDER: S-EPMC2762505 | biostudies-other | 2009 Oct
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:Extended validation of an index predicting mortality among community-dwelling US older adults.Examination of the performance of a previously developed index in predicting 10- and 14-year mortality among respondents to the 1997-2000 National Health Interview Surveys (NHIS) using the original development and validation cohorts. Follow-up mortality data are now available through 2011.16,063 respondents from the original development cohort and 8,027 respondents from the original validation cohort. All participants were community dwelling and ?65 years old.We calculated risk scores for each respondent based on the presence or absence of 11 factors (function, illnesses, behaviors, demographics) that make up the index. Using the Kaplan Meier method, we computed 10- and 14-year mortality estimates for the development and validation cohorts to examine model calibration. We examined model discrimination using the c-index.Participants in the development and validation cohorts were similar. Participants with risk scores 0-4 had 23% risk of 14-year mortality whereas respondents with risk scores (13+) had 89% risk of 14-year mortality. The c-index of the model in both cohorts was 0.73 for predicting 10-year mortality and 0.72 for predicting 14-year mortality. Overall, 18.4% of adults 65-74 years and 60.2% of adults ?75 years have >50% risk of mortality in 10 years.Our index demonstrated excellent calibration and discrimination in predicting 10- and 14-year mortality among community-dwelling US adults ?65 years. Information on long-term prognosis is needed to help clinicians and older adults make more informed person-centered medical decisions and to help older adults plan for the future.
| S-EPMC5478427 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Falls represent a global health issue among older adults and cause a considerable burden on medical systems. In this study, a fall-risk assessment profile was developed for community-dwelling older adults. METHOD:The data of survey participants aged >?65?years were obtained from three rounds (2005, 2009, and 2013) of the National Health Interview Survey in Taiwan. In total, 8356 older participants were included in this study. Logistic regression analyses were used to determine potential predictors associated with falls. The regression coefficients of the predictors in the final model were translated into scores (by multiplying by 5) and then summed to obtain a total risk-score for falls. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the discriminative performance of the risk assessment profile. RESULT:Self-reported falls within 1?year accounted for 19.1% of the total falls. The predictors that were included in the risk profile according to the logistic regression analysis results were as follows: female sex (adjusted odds ratio?=?1.57; risk-score?=?2), living alone (adjusted odds ratio?=?1.56; risk-score?=?2), urinary incontinence (adjusted odds ratio?=?1.36; risk-score?=?2), perceived unhealthiness (adjusted odds ratio?=?1.32; risk-score?=?1), perceived pain (adjusted odds ratio?=?1.51; risk-score?=?2), hospital admission in the past year (adjusted odds ratio?=?2.42; risk-score?=?4), low activity of daily living (ADL) scores (adjusted odds ratio?=?1.29; risk-score?=?1), and low mobility function scores (adjusted odds ratio?=?1.68; risk-score?=?3). At a total risk-score cutoff point of 6 (range 0-17), the model predicted falls with a sensitivity and specificity of 75.16 and 52.75%, respectively (area under the ROC curve?=?0.70). CONCLUSION:The fall-risk assessment profile comprising eight predictors-female sex, living alone, incontinence, perceived unhealthiness, perceived pain, hospital admission in the past year, low ADL scores, and low mobility function scores-may serve as an assessment tool for identification of older adults with a high risk of falling, and assessment results can be used to facilitate community-based intervention.
| S-EPMC7023681 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMachine learning (ML) models can be used to predict future frailty in the community setting. However, outcome variables for epidemiologic data sets such as frailty usually have an imbalance between categories, that is, there are far fewer individuals classified as frail than as nonfrail, adversely affecting the performance of ML models when predicting the syndrome.MethodsA retrospective cohort study with participants (50 years or older) from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing who were nonfrail at baseline (2008-2009) and reassessed for the frailty phenotype at 4-year follow-up (2012-2013). Social, clinical, and psychosocial baseline predictors were selected to predict frailty at follow-up in ML models (Logistic Regression, Random Forest [RF], Support Vector Machine, Neural Network, K-nearest neighbor, and Naive Bayes classifier).ResultsOf all the 4 378 nonfrail participants at baseline, 347 became frail at follow-up. The proposed combined oversampling and undersampling method to adjust imbalanced data improved the performance of the models, and RF had the best performance, with areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve and the precision-recall curve of 0.92 and 0.97, respectively, specificity of 0.83, sensitivity of 0.88, and balanced accuracy of 85.5% for balanced data. Age, chair-rise test, household wealth, balance problems, and self-rated health were the most important frailty predictors in most of the models trained with balanced data.ConclusionsML proved useful in identifying individuals who became frail over time, and this result was made possible by balancing the data set. This study highlighted factors that may be useful in the early detection of frailty.
| S-EPMC10613015 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAdverse health effects resulting from falls are a major public health concern. Although studies have identified risk factors for falls, none have examined long-term prediction of fall risk. Furthermore, recent evidence suggests that there are additional risk factors, such as psychosocial factors.ObjectiveIn this 3-year longitudinal study, we evaluated a predictive model for risk of fall among community-dwelling older adults using machine learning methods.DesignA 3-year follow-up prospective longitudinal study (from 2010 to 2013).SettingTwenty-four municipalities in nine of the 47 prefectures (provinces) of Japan.ParticipantsCommunity-dwelling individuals aged ≥65 years who were functionally independent at baseline (n = 61,883).MethodsThe baseline survey was conducted from August 2010 to January 2012, and the follow-up survey was conducted from October to December 2013. Both surveys were conducted involving self-reported questionnaires. The measured outcome at the follow-up survey was self-reported multiple falls during the previous year. The 142 variables included in the baseline survey were regarded as candidate predictors. The random-forest-based Boruta algorithm was used to select predictors, and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm with 10 repetitions of nested k-fold cross-validation was used for modeling and model evaluation. Furthermore, we used shapley additive explanations to gain insight into the behavior of the prediction model.Key resultsFourteen out of 142 candidate features were selected as predictors. Among these predictors, experience of falling as of the baseline survey was the most important feature, followed by self-rated health and age. Moreover, sense of coherence was newly identified as a risk factor for falls.ConclusionsThis study suggests that machine learning tools can be adapted to explore new associative factors, make accurate predictions, and provide actionable insights for fall prevention strategies.
| S-EPMC9411287 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAn aging society incurs great losses due to fall-related injuries and mortalities. The foreseeable increased burden of fall-related injury among older people requires a regular nationwide study on the fall epidemic and prevention strategies.MethodsThe fall epidemic was examined using data from three consecutive waves of the National Health Interview Survey (2005, 2009, and 2013). Common explanatory variables across these surveys included sociodemographic factors (age, sex, and difficulty in performing activities of daily living (ADL) or instrumental ADL), biological factors (vision, comorbidities, urinary incontinence, and depressive symptoms), and behavioral risk factors (sleeping pill use, and frequency of exercise). After the univariate and bivariate analyses, the prevalence of falls was investigated using multiple linear regression models adjusted for age group, sex, and year of survey. A multivariate logistic regression model for falls with adjustments for these common explanatory variables was established across three waves of surveys. The effect of fall prevention programs was examined with the effect size in terms of age-specific and sex-specific prevalence of falls and fall-related hospitalization rates during 2005 and 2009.ResultsFor each survey, there were consecutively 2722; 2900; and 3200 respondents with a mean age of 75.1, 75.6, and 76.4?years, respectively. The multiple linear regression model yielded a negative association between the prevalence of falls and year of survey. Several sociodemographic and biological factors, including female sex, difficulty in performing one basic ADL, difficulty in performing two or more instrumental ADLs, unclear vision, comorbidities, urinary incontinence, and depressive symptoms, were significantly associated with falls. In contrast to the universal positive effect on the prevalence of falls among older adults, the effect size of fall-related hospitalization rates revealed a 2% relative risk reduction only for those aged 65-74?years, but deteriorated for those aged 75-84 (-?10.9%).ConclusionAlthough the decline in fall prevalence over time supports existing fall intervention strategies in Taiwan, the differential prevention effect and identification of risk factors in older people suggest the necessity of adjusting fall prevention programs.
| S-EPMC7724833 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A study was undertaken to relate dietary fat types to cognitive change in healthy community-based elders.Among 6,183 older participants in the Women's Health Study, we related intake of major fatty acids (saturated [SFA], monounsaturated [MUFA], total polyunsaturated [PUFA], trans-unsaturated) to late-life cognitive trajectory. Serial cognitive testing, conducted over 4 years, began 5 years after dietary assessment. Primary outcomes were global cognition (averaging tests of general cognition, verbal memory, and semantic fluency) and verbal memory (averaging tests of recall). We used analyses of response profiles and logistic regression to estimate multivariate-adjusted differences in cognitive trajectory and risk of worst cognitive change (worst 10%) by fat intake.Higher SFA intake was associated with worse global cognitive (p for linear trend = 0.008) and verbal memory (p for linear trend = 0.01) trajectories. There was a higher risk of worst cognitive change, comparing highest versus lowest SFA quintiles; the multivariate-adjusted odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was 1.64 (1.04-2.58) for global cognition and 1.65 (1.04-2.61) for verbal memory. By contrast, higher MUFA intake was related to better global cognitive (p for linear trend < 0.001) and verbal memory (p for linear trend = 0.009) trajectories, and lower OR (95% CI) of worst cognitive change in global cognition (0.52 [0.31-0.88]) and verbal memory (0.56 [0.34-0.94]). Total fat, PUFA, and trans-fat intakes were not associated with cognitive trajectory.Higher SFA intake was associated with worse global cognitive and verbal memory trajectories, whereas higher MUFA intake was related to better trajectories. Thus, different consumption levels of the major specific fat types, rather than total fat intake itself, appeared to influence cognitive aging.
| S-EPMC3405188 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:To understand the threat posed by localized prostate cancer and the potential impact of surgery or radiation, patients and healthcare providers require information on long-term outcomes following conservative management. OBJECTIVE:To describe 15-yr survival outcomes and cancer therapy utilization among men 65 years and older managed conservatively for newly diagnosed localized prostate cancer. DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS:This is a population-based cohort study with participants living in predefined geographic areas covered by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. The study includes 31 137 Medicare patients aged ?65 yr diagnosed with localized prostate cancer in 1992-2009 who initially received conservative management (no surgery, radiotherapy, cryotherapy, or androgen deprivation therapy [ADT]). All patients were followed until death or December 31, 2009 (for prostate cancer-specific mortality [PCSM]) and December 31, 2011 (for overall mortality). OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:Competing-risk analyses were used to examine PCSM, overall mortality, and utilization of cancer therapies. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS:The 15-yr risk of PCSM for men aged 65-74 yr diagnosed with screening-detected prostate cancer was 5.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.7-8.0%) for T1c Gleason 5-7 and 22% (95% CI 16-35%) for Gleason 8-10 disease. After 15 yr of follow-up, 24% (95% CI 21-27%) of men aged 65-74 yr with screening-detected Gleason 5-7 cancer received ADT. The corresponding result for men with Gleason 8-10 cancer was 38% (95% CI 32-44%). The major study limitations are the lack of data for men aged <65 yr and detailed clinical information associated with secondary cancer therapy. CONCLUSIONS:The 15-yr outcomes following conservative management of newly diagnosed Gleason 5-7 prostate cancer among men aged ?65 yr are excellent. Men with Gleason 8-10 disease managed conservatively face a significant risk of PCSM. PATIENT SUMMARY:We examined the long-term survival outcomes for a large group of patients diagnosed with localized prostate cancer who did not have surgery, radiotherapy, cryotherapy, or androgen deprivation therapy in the first 6 mo after cancer diagnosis. We found that the 15-yr disease-specific survival is excellent for men diagnosed with Gleason 5-7 disease. The data support conservative management as a reasonable choice for elderly patients with low-grade localized prostate cancer.
| S-EPMC4575827 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo validate the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) for prediction of 1-year all-cause mortality in the emergency department (ED) and compare its performance to the Emergency Severity Index (ESI).MethodsProspective cohort study at the ED of a tertiary care center in Northwestern Switzerland. All patients aged ≥65 years were included from March 18 to May 20, 2019, after informed consent. Frailty status was assessed using CFS, excluding level 9 (palliative). Acuity level was assessed using ESI. Both CFS and ESI were adjusted for age, sex and presenting condition in multivariable logistic regression. Prognostic performance was assessed for discrimination and calibration separately. Estimates were internally validated by Bootstrapping. Restricted mean survival time (RMST) was determined for all levels of CFS.ResultsIn the final study population of 2191 patients, 1-year all-cause mortality was 17% (n = 372). RMST values ranged from 219 days for CFS 8 to 365 days for CFS 1. The adjusted CFS model had an area under receiver operating characteristic of 0.767 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.741-0.793), compared to 0.703 (95% CI: 0.673-0.732) for the adjusted ESI model.ConclusionThe CFS predicts 1-year all-cause mortality for older ED patients and predicts survival time in a graded manner. The CFS is superior to the ESI when adjusted for age, sex, and presenting condition.
| S-EPMC9320818 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionTaurine has diverse valuable biological functions, including antioxidant activity and regulation of osmotic pressure. Maintaining physical fitness from middle age is important for healthy life expectancy. Although taurine administration improves muscle endurance and strength, its role in maintenance remains unclear. We aimed to clarify the longitudinal taurine intake association with fitness changes.MethodsParticipants comprised men and women aged ≥40 years who participated in the third (2002-2004; Baseline) and seventh (2010-2012; Follow-up) waves of the National Institute for Longevity Sciences-Longitudinal Study of Aging (NILS-LSA) and completed a 3-day dietary weights recording survey at baseline. A table of taurine content was prepared for 751 foods (including five food groups: Seaweed; Fish and shellfish; Meat; Eggs; and Milk and dairy products) from the Standard Tables of Food Composition in Japan (1,878 foods) 2010. Four physical fitness items (knee extension muscle strength, sit-and-reach, one-leg standing with eyes closed, and maximum walking speed) were measured at baseline and follow-up. We analyzed the association of taurine intake with physical fitness change, employing a general linear model (GLM) and trend tests for baseline taurine intake and follow-up fitness change. Adjustments included baseline variables: sex, age, height, weight, educational level, self-rated health, smoking status, depressive symptoms, and clinical history.ResultsThe estimated average daily taurine intake (standard deviation) was 207.5 (145.6) mg/day at the baseline. When examining the association with the four physical fitness parameters, higher taurine intake positively increased the change in knee extension muscle strength (T1; 0.1, T2; 0.8, T3; 1.1 (kgf) GLM, p < 0.05; p for trend <0.05) and reduced the decline in knee extension muscle strength in the subgroup analysis of participants aged ≥65 years (T1: -1.9, T2: -1.7, T3: -0.4 kgf; GLM p < 0.05, p for trend <0.05). No relationship was found between taurine intake and the remaining three fitness factors.ConclusionEstimation of taurine intake showed that dietary taurine intake potentially contributes to the maintenance of knee extension muscle strength over 8 years among Japanese community-dwelling middle-aged and older individuals. This is the first study to investigate the association of dietary taurine intake with muscle strength.
| S-EPMC10989742 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Importance:There is little understanding of the outcomes associated with active lifestyle interventions for sarcopenia among older persons. Objective:To determine the association of 6-month multidomain lifestyle interventions (physical exercise, nutritional enhancement, cognitive training, combined treatment, and standard care) with change in sarcopenia status and physical function among adults 65 years and older. Design, Setting, and Participants:Post hoc secondary analysis of a parallel-group randomized clinical trial conducted from September 1, 2012, to September 1, 2014, at community centers providing services to elderly individuals in Singapore. Participants included a subsample of 92 community-dwelling prefrail or frail older persons with sarcopenia aged 65 years and older. Data were analyzed from June 1, 2017, to January 1, 2018. Interventions:The 5 intervention groups were a 6-month duration of physical exercise that included resistance and balance training, nutritional enhancement with a commercial oral nutrition supplement formula, cognitive training, a combination of the preceding 3 interventions, and standard care (control). Main Outcomes and Measures:Primary outcomes were changes in sarcopenia status and its components, appendicular skeletal muscle index (ASMI), knee extension strength (KES), and gait speed (GS) at 3 months and 6 months following the intervention. Sarcopenia was defined as the presence of both low ASMI and low KES and/or GS. Results:In 92 participants with sarcopenia, the mean (SD) age was 70.0 (4.7) years and 59 (64.1%) were female. Seventy-eight participants received active interventions and 14 received standard care. Of 92 total participants, the number who remained sarcopenic was reduced to 48 (of 73) after 3 months and 51 (of 75) after 6 months of intervention, indicating that 25 of 92 participants (27.2%) experienced sarcopenia reduction at 3 months and 24 of 92 (26.1%) had sarcopenia reduction at 6 months. Low KES was present in 88 of 92 patients (95.6%), and low GS in 30 of 92 patients (32.6%) at baseline. Among the components of sarcopenia, GS had the greatest change associated with active interventions, with 22 of 30 participants (73.3%) free of low GS at 6 months; in comparison, 17 of 88 participants (19.3%) were free of low KES at 6 months and 7 of 92 participants (7.6%) were free of low ASMI at 6 months. Men experienced greater reduction in sarcopenia than women (?2?=?5.925; P?=?.02), as did those with younger age (t?=?-2.078; P?=?.04) or higher ASMI (mean [SD] ASMI, 5.74 [0.77] vs 5.14 [0.77] kg/m2; P?=?.002). Participants in the active intervention group experienced statistically significant decreases in sarcopenia score and its components at 3 months and 6 months from baseline (F?=?14.138; P?<?.001), but the intervention was not associated with significant differences in ASMI, KES, and GS vs standard care. Conclusions and Relevance:This study suggests that older persons with sarcopenia are responsive to the effects of multidomain lifestyle interventions. Sarcopenia reduction was most pronounced through improved gait speed, and occurred more among those who were male, were younger, or had greater muscle mass.
| S-EPMC6806429 | biostudies-literature