Dataset Information

Development and validation of a lung cancer risk prediction model for African-Americans.

ABSTRACT: Because existing risk prediction models for lung cancer were developed in white populations, they may not be appropriate for predicting risk among African-Americans. Therefore, a need exists to construct and validate a risk prediction model for lung cancer that is specific to African-Americans. We analyzed data from 491 African-Americans with lung cancer and 497 matched African-American controls to identify specific risks and incorporate them into a multivariable risk model for lung cancer and estimate the 5-year absolute risk of lung cancer. We performed internal and external validations of the risk model using data on additional cases and controls from the same ongoing multiracial/ethnic lung cancer case-control study from which the model-building data were obtained as well as data from two different lung cancer studies in metropolitan Detroit, respectively. We also compared our African-American model with our previously developed risk prediction model for whites. The final risk model included smoking-related variables [smoking status, pack-years smoked, age at smoking cessation (former smokers), and number of years since smoking cessation (former smokers)], self-reported physician diagnoses of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or hay fever, and exposures to asbestos or wood dusts. Our risk prediction model for African-Americans exhibited good discrimination [75% (95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.82)] for our internal data and moderate discrimination [63% (95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.69)] for the external data group, which is an improvement over the Spitz model for white subjects. Existing lung cancer prediction models may not be appropriate for predicting risk for African-Americans because (a) they were developed using white populations, (b) level of risk is different for risk factors that African-American share with whites, and (c) unique group-specific risk factors exist for African-Americans. This study developed and validated a risk prediction model for lung cancer that is specific to African-Americans and thus more precise in predicting their risks. These findings highlight the importance of conducting further ethnic-specific analyses of disease risk.

SUBMITTER: Etzel CJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2854402 | biostudies-other | 2008 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Development and validation of a lung cancer risk prediction model for African-Americans.

Etzel Carol J CJ Kachroo Sumesh S Liu Mei M D'Amelio Anthony A Dong Qiong Q Cote Michele L ML Wenzlaff Angela S AS Hong Waun Ki WK Greisinger Anthony J AJ Schwartz Ann G AG Spitz Margaret R MR

Cancer prevention research (Philadelphia, Pa.) 20080901 4

Because existing risk prediction models for lung cancer were developed in white populations, they may not be appropriate for predicting risk among African-Americans. Therefore, a need exists to construct and validate a risk prediction model for lung cancer that is specific to African-Americans. We analyzed data from 491 African-Americans with lung cancer and 497 matched African-American controls to identify specific risks and incorporate them into a multivariable risk model for lung cancer and e ...[more]

PMID: 19138969

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Project description:BackgroundWith advancing therapeutics, lung cancer (LC) survivors are rapidly increasing in number. Although mounting evidence suggests LC survivors have high risk of second primary lung cancer (SPLC), there is no validated prediction model available for clinical use to identify high-risk LC survivors for SPLC.MethodsUsing data from 6325 ever-smokers in the Multiethnic Cohort (MEC) study diagnosed with initial primary lung cancer (IPLC) in 1993-2017, we developed a prediction model for 10-year SPLC risk after IPLC diagnosis using cause-specific Cox regression. We evaluated the model's clinical utility using decision curve analysis and externally validated it using 2 population-based data-Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) and National Lung Screening Trial (NLST)-that included 2963 and 2844 IPLC (101 and 93 SPLC cases), respectively.ResultsOver 14 063 person-years, 145 (2.3%) ever-smoking IPLC patients developed SPLC in MEC. Our prediction model demonstrated a high predictive accuracy (Brier score = 2.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.4 to 3.3) and discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristics [AUC] = 81.9%, 95% CI = 78.2% to 85.5%) based on bootstrap validation in MEC. Stratification by the estimated risk quartiles showed that the observed SPLC incidence was statistically significantly higher in the 4th vs 1st quartile (9.5% vs 0.2%; P < .001). Decision curve analysis indicated that in a wide range of 10-year risk thresholds from 1% to 20%, the model yielded a larger net-benefit vs hypothetical all-screening or no-screening scenarios. External validation using PLCO and NLST showed an AUC of 78.8% (95% CI = 74.6% to 82.9%) and 72.7% (95% CI = 67.7% to 77.7%), respectively.ConclusionsWe developed and validated a SPLC prediction model based on large population-based cohorts. The proposed prediction model can help identify high-risk LC patients for SPLC and can be incorporated into clinical decision making for SPLC surveillance and screening.

Project description:BackgroundLow-dose computed tomography screening has been proved to reduce lung cancer mortality, however, the issues of high false-positive rate and overdiagnosis remain unsolved. Risk prediction models for lung cancer that could accurately identify high-risk populations may help to increase efficiency. We thus sought to develop a risk prediction model for lung cancer incorporating epidemiological and metabolic markers in a Chinese population.MethodsDuring 2006 and 2015, a total of 122 497 people were observed prospectively for lung cancer incidence with the total person-years of 976 663. Stepwise multivariable-adjusted logistic regressions with Pentry = .15 and Pstay = .20 were conducted to select the candidate variables including demographics and metabolic markers such as high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) into the prediction model. We used the C-statistic to evaluate discrimination, and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests for calibration. Tenfold cross-validation was conducted for internal validation to assess the model's stability.ResultsA total of 984 lung cancer cases were identified during the follow-up. The epidemiological model including age, gender, smoking status, alcohol intake status, coal dust exposure status, and body mass index generated a C-statistic of 0.731. The full model additionally included hsCRP and LDL-C showed significantly better discrimination (C-statistic = 0.735, P = .033). In stratified analysis, the full model showed better predictive power in terms of C-statistic in younger participants (<50 years, 0.709), females (0.726), and former or current smokers (0.742). The model calibrated well across the deciles of predicted risk in both the overall population (PHL = .689) and all subgroups.ConclusionsWe developed and internally validated an easy-to-use risk prediction model for lung cancer among the Chinese population that could provide guidance for screening and surveillance.

Project description:Translational Relevance Historically, African Americans have been underrepresented in clinical cancer research. Diversity helps to ensure equal access to new cancer therapies and better treatment for everyone. Cancer research is increasingly focused on classifying patients according to molecular profiles for particular groups. We provide a detailed molecular analysis from paired NSCLC tissues that identified differential coding and noncoding RNA expression in NSCLC from African Americans (AA) and European Americans (EA). Similar to other tumor types, we determined that race-enriched gene and microRNA expression signatures suggest a more aggressive disease in African Americans. Based on predicted drug resistance to adjuvant chemotherapies, AA may not equally benefit from the same range of clinical drugs as EA. Our findings provide a rationale for integrating coding and noncoding transcriptome profiles, along with clinical, demographic, and genomic data, when determining treatment options. Abstract Purpose: To determine if racial differences in gene and microRNA expression translates to differences in lung tumor biology with clinical relevance in African Americans (AA) and European Americans (EA). Experimental Design: The NCI-Maryland Case Control Study includes seven Baltimore City hospitals and is overrepresented with AA patients (~40%). Patients that underwent curative NSCLC surgery between 1998 and 2014 were enrolled. Comparative molecular profiling used mRNA (n = 22 AAs and n = 19 EAs) and microRNA (n = 42 AAs and n = 55 EAs) expression arrays to track differences in paired fresh frozen normal tissues and lung tumor specimens from AA and EA. Pathway enrichment, predicted drug response, tumor microenvironment infiltration, cancer immunotherapy antigen profiling, and microRNA target enrichment were assessed. Results: AA-enriched differential gene expression was characterized by stem-cell and invasion pathways. Differential gene expression in lung tumors from EA were primarily characterized by cell proliferation pathways. Population-specific gene expression was partly driven by population-specific miRNA expression profiles. Drug susceptibility predictions revealed a strong inverse correlation between AA resistance and EA sensitivity to the same panel of drugs. Statistically significant differences in M1 and M2 macrophage infiltration was observed in AA (P <0.05), however, PD-L1, PD-L2 expression was similar between both. Conclusions: Comparative transcriptomic profiling revealed clear differences in lung tumor biology between AA and EA. Increased participation by AA in lung cancer clinical trials are needed to integrate, and leverage, transcriptomic differences with other clinical information to maximize therapeutic benefit in both AA and EA. GSEA, Connectivity Map, CIBERSORT, cancer immunotherapy antigen profiling, and hypergeometric testing for overlapping miRNA targets were performed.

Dataset Information

Development and validation of a lung cancer risk prediction model for African-Americans.

Publications

Development and validation of a lung cancer risk prediction model for African-Americans.

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