Cumulative incidence trends of selected cancer sites in a Philippine population from 1983 to 2002: a joinpoint analysis.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Medina VM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC2865754 | biostudies-other | 2010 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Recent reports have noted increasing rates of anal cancer among high-income countries worldwide; however, little is known about these trends in Austria. METHODS:Data on anal cancer from 1983 to 2016 were obtained from Statistics Austria. All tumors (n?=?3567) were classified into anal squamous cell carcinomas (ASCC), anal adenocarcinomas (AADC), and others (unspecified carcinoma and other specific carcinoma). Anal cancer incidence rates were calculated in 5?year cycles and incidence average annual percentage change (AAPC) to evaluate trends by sex, histology and age group. RESULTS:The incidence rate of anal cancer was higher among females than males (relative risk, RR?=?1.66, 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.55-1.79, p?<?0.0001). From 1983 through 2016, incident anal cancer increased significantly (0.92 per 100,000 person-years to 1.85 per 100,000 person-years, AAPC?=?1.93, 95% CI: 1.52 to 2.34, p?<?0.0001), particularly among those 40-69 years old. From 1983 through 2016, the increasing anal cancer incidence was primarily driven by ASCC (0.47-1.20 per 100,000 person-years, AAPC?=?2.23, 95% CI: 1.58 to 2.88, p?<?0.0001) and others (other than ASCC and AADC, AAPC?=?1.78, 95% CI: 1.01-2.55), yet stable in AADC (AAPC?=?0.88, 95% CI: -0.48-2.25). CONCLUSIONS:Despite being a rare cancer in Austria, the increase in anal cancer incidence rate from 1983 to 2016 was substantial, particularly in ASCC. The observed rising trends reflect the need to investigate associated risk factors that have increased over time to inform preventive measures.
| S-EPMC7445201 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND: There are few population-based childhood cancer registries in the world containing stage and treatment data. METHODS: Data from the population-based Australian Paediatric Cancer Registry were used to calculate incidence rates during the most recent 10-year period (1997-2006) and trends in incidence between 1983 and 2006 for the 12 major diagnostic groups of the International Classification of Childhood Cancer. RESULTS: In the period 1997-2006, there were 6184 childhood cancer (at 0-14 years) cases in Australia (157 cases per million children). The commonest cancers were leukaemia (34%), that of the central nervous system (23%) and lymphomas (10%), with incidence the highest at 0-4 years (223 cases per million). Trend analyses showed that incidence among boys for all cancers combined increased by 1.6% per year from 1983 to 1994 but have remained stable since. Incidence rates for girls consistently increased by 0.9% per year. Since 1983, there have been significant increases among boys and girls for leukaemia, and hepatic and germ-cell tumours, whereas for boys, incidence of neuroblastomas and malignant epithelial tumours has recently decreased. For all cancers and for both sexes combined, there was a consistent increase (+0.7% per year, 1983-2006) at age 0-4 years, a slight non-significant increase at 5-9 years, and at 10-14 years, an initial increase (2.7% per year, 1983-1996) followed by a slight non-significant decrease. CONCLUSION: Although there is some evidence of a recent plateau in cancer incidence rates in Australia for boys and older children, interpretation is difficult without a better understanding of what underlies the changes reported.
| S-EPMC2822940 | biostudies-other
Project description:We tested the hypotheses that the global incidence of bladder cancer was increasing but its mortality was reducing and its incidence was positively correlated with country-specific socioeconomic development. We retrieved data on age-standardized incidence and mortality rates/100,000 from the GLOBOCAN database in 2012. Temporal patterns were examined for 39 countries from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents volumes I-X and other national registries. We evaluated the correlation between the incidence/mortality rates and Human Development Index (HDI)/ logarithmic values of Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP). The average annual percent change of the incidence and mortality rates in the most recent 10 years was examined by joinpoint regression analysis. The highest incidence rates were observed in Southern Europe, Western Europe and North America. The mortality rates were the highest in Western Asia and Northern Africa. The incidence was positively correlated with HDI (r?=?0.66 [men]; r?=?0.50 [women]) and to a lesser extent logarithmic values of GDP per capita (r?=?0.60 [men]; r?=?0.50 [women], all p?<?0.01). Many European countries experienced incidence rise. A substantial mortality reduction was observed in most countries, yet increases in mortality rates were observed in the Philippines and Iceland. These findings identified countries where more preventive actions are required.
| S-EPMC5773684 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundCancer is an important focus of public health worldwide. This study aims to provide a comprehensive overview of temporal trends in incidence and mortality of leading cancer in Guangzhou, China from 2004 to 2015.MethodsData were collected from the population-based registry in Guangzhou. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) were calculated and Joinpoint regression was used for evaluating the average annual percent changes (AAPC) among the entire study period and the estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) in time segments. The effects of age, period, and birth cohort were assessed by the age-period-cohort model.ResultsThe age-standardized incidence and mortality by the world standard population decreased significantly among males with AAPC of -1.7% (95% CI: -3.0%, 0.2%) and -2.7% (95% CI: -4.3%, -1.1%) for all malignancies during 2004-2015, while among females, the age-standardized incidence had a non-significant reduction with AAPC of -1.3% (95% CI: -2.8%, 0.2%) and the age-standardized mortality demonstrated a remarkable decline (AAPC -2.0%, 95% CI: -3.6%, -0.3%). For males, the most commonly diagnosed cancers were trachea, bronchus, and lung (TBL), liver, colorectal, nasopharyngeal, stomach, and prostate cancer. For females, breast, TBL, colorectal, liver stomach, and thyroid cancer ranked the top. Unfavorable trends were observed in ASIR of colorectal, thyroid, and prostate cancer. APC models yielded different ages, periods, and birth cohort effect patterns by cancer sites.ConclusionsCancer burden remained a public health challenge in Guangzhou as the aging population and lifestyles changes, despite declines in incidence and mortality rates in some cancers. Surveillance of cancer trends contributed to valuable insights into cancer prevention and control.
| S-EPMC8026941 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTuberculosis, as a communicable disease, is an ongoing global epidemic that accounts for high burden of global mortality and morbidity. Globally, with an estimated 10 million new cases and around 1.4 million deaths, TB has emerged as one of the top 10 causes of morbidity and mortality in 2019. Worst hit 8 countries account for two thirds of the new TB cases in 2019, with India leading the count. Despite India's engagement in various TB control activities since its first recognition through the resolution passed in the All-India Sanitary Conference in 1912 and launch of first National Tuberculosis Control Programme in 1962, it has remained a major public health challenge to overcome. To accelerate progress towards the goal of ending TB by 2025, 5 years ahead of the global SDG target, it is imperative to outline the incidence and mortality trends of tuberculosis in India. This study aims to provide deep insights into the recent trends of TB incidence and mortality in India from 1990 to 2019.MethodsThis is an observational study based on the most recent data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We extracted numbers, age-specific and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of Tuberculosis for the period 1990-2019 from the Global Health Data Exchange. The average annual percent change (AAPC) along with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) in incidence and mortality were derived by joinpoint regression analysis; the net age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rates were estimated by using Age-Period-Cohort model.ResultsDuring the study period, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of TB in India declines from 390.22 to 223.01 and from 121.72 to 36.11 per 100,000 population respectively. The Joinpoint regression analysis showed a significant decreasing pattern in incidence rates in India between 1990 and 2019 for both male and female; but larger decline was observed in case of females (AAPC: - 2.21; 95% CI: - 2.29 to - 2.12; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: - 1.63; 95% CI: - 1.71 to - 1.54; p < 0.001). Similar pattern was observed for mortality where the declining trend was sharper for females (AAPC: - 4.35; 95% CI: - 5.12 to - 3.57; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: - 3.88; 95% CI: - 4.63 to - 3.11; p < 0.001). For age-specific rates, incidence and mortality rates of TB decreased for both male and female across all ages during this period. The age effect showed that both incidence and mortality significantly increased with advancing age; period effect showed that both incidence and mortality decreased with advancing time period; cohort effect on TB incidence and mortality also decreased from earlier birth cohorts to more recent birth cohorts.ConclusionMortality and Incidence of TB decreased across all age groups for both male and female over the period 1990-2019. The incidence as well as mortality was higher among males as compared to females. The net age effect showed an unfavourable trend while the net period effect and cohort effect presented a favourable trend. Aging was likely to drive a continued increase in the mortality of TB. Though the incidence and mortality of tuberculosis significantly decreased from 1990 to 2019, the annual rate of reduction is not sufficient enough to achieve the aim of India's National Strategic plan 2017-2025. Approximately six decades since the launch of the National Tuberculosis Control Programme, TB still remains a major public health problem in India. Government needs to strengthen four strategic pillars "Detect-Treat-Prevent-Build" (DTPB) in order to achieve TB free India as envisaged in the National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme (2020).
| S-EPMC8597252 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn the past decade, the Republic of Ireland has undertaken significant reconfiguration programmes to improve emergency services. During this time the public healthcare system experienced a large real decrease in resources. This study assesses national and regional population outcomes over the period 2002-2014, and whether changes coincide with system reconfiguration and the financial restrictions imposed by the 2008 recession.MethodsCase fatality ratios (CFRs) were constructed for emergency conditions for 2002-2014. Total emergency conditions and individual condition trends were analysed nationally using joinpoint analysis. National results informed the investigation of trends at a regional and county level using an inverse standard error weighted generalised linear model with a log link to construct funnel plots. County-level CFRs were compared for the first and last 3 years of the period to further investigate the changes to county results over the 13 year period, specifically in comparison to the national-level CFR.ResultsNationally, there was an annual fall in CFRs (2.1%). The decline was faster from 2002 to 2007 (annual percentage change = - 3.4; 95% CI-4.4, - 2.4), compared to 2007-2014 (annual percentage change = - 1.2; 95% CI -1.9, - 0.5). The South-East had a lower rate of decrease and the West had a higher rate. Cross sectional analysis of two periods (2002-2004 and 2012-2014) showed high consistency in the counties performance relative to the national CFR in both periods.ConclusionChange in the national trend coincided with the onset of economic stress on the public health system. Attributing the decline in CFR improvement to economic factors is weakened by the uneven nature of the trend change. No distinct pattern of change was identified among regions which underwent substantial reconfiguration of emergency services.
| S-EPMC6006987 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo clarify whether the increase in childhood type 1 diabetes is mirrored by a decrease in older age-groups, resulting in younger age at diagnosis.Research design and methodsWe used data from two prospective research registers, the Swedish Childhood Diabetes Register, which included case subjects aged 0-14.9 years at diagnosis, and the Diabetes in Sweden Study, which included case subjects aged 15-34.9 years at diagnosis, covering birth cohorts between 1948 and 2007. The total database included 20,249 individuals with diabetes diagnosed between 1983 and 2007. Incidence rates over time were analyzed using Poisson regression models.ResultsThe overall yearly incidence rose to a peak of 42.3 per 100,000 person-years in male subjects aged 10-14 years and to a peak of 37.1 per 100,000 person-years in female subjects aged 5-9 years and decreased thereafter. There was a significant increase by calendar year in both sexes in the three age-groups <15 years; however, there were significant decreases in the older age-groups (25- to 29-years and 30- to 34-years age-groups). Poisson regression analyses showed that a cohort effect seemed to dominate over a time-period effect.ConclusionsTwenty-five years of prospective nationwide incidence registration demonstrates a clear shift to younger age at onset rather than a uniform increase in incidence rates across all age-groups. The dominance of cohort effects over period effects suggests that exposures affecting young children may be responsible for the increasing incidence in the younger age-groups.
| S-EPMC3142045 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Cancer is one of the leading causes of death worldwide and its incidence is expected to increase in the future. In Panama, cancer is also one of the leading causes of death. In 1964, a nationwide cancer registry was started and it was restructured and improved in 2012. The aim of this study is to utilize Joinpoint regression analysis to study the trends of the incidence and mortality of cancer in Panama in the last decade. Cancer mortality was estimated from the Panamanian National Institute of Census and Statistics Registry for the period 2001 to 2011. Cancer incidence was estimated from the Panamanian National Cancer Registry for the period 2000 to 2009. The Joinpoint Regression Analysis program, version 4.0.4, was used to calculate trends by age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates for selected cancers. Overall, the trend of age-adjusted cancer mortality in Panama has declined over the last 10 years (-1.12% per year). The cancers for which there was a significant increase in the trend of mortality were female breast cancer and ovarian cancer; while the highest increases in incidence were shown for breast cancer, liver cancer, and prostate cancer. Significant decrease in the trend of mortality was evidenced for the following: prostate cancer, lung and bronchus cancer, and cervical cancer; with respect to incidence, only oral and pharynx cancer in both sexes had a significant decrease. Some cancers showed no significant trends in incidence or mortality. This study reveals contrasting trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Panama in the last decade. Although Panama is considered an upper middle income nation, this study demonstrates that some cancer mortality trends, like the ones seen in cervical and lung cancer, behave similarly to the ones seen in high income countries. In contrast, other types, like breast cancer, follow a pattern seen in countries undergoing a transition to a developed economy with its associated lifestyle, nutrition, and body weight changes.
| S-EPMC4616533 | biostudies-other
Project description:Background:This study described the incidence and mortality trends and analyzed age-period-cohort effects on incidences in China, Japan, and Korea. Methods:Data were extracted from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series and the World Health Organization Cancer Mortality Database, and the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates by Segi's world population were calculated. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to evaluate the time trend of age-standardized incidence and mortality rates and the age-period-cohort model with intrinsic estimator was applied for estimating the effects of age, period, and cohort on thyroid cancer (TC) incidence in individuals between 20 and 84 years of age. Results:An increasing trend in TC incidence rates was observed among males from China (10.3%), Japan (4.7%), and Korea (20.8%) and among females from China (9.4%), Japan (3.5%), and Korea (20.5%). TC incidence rates in females were much higher than those in males. A downward trend of TC mortality rates was observed, especially in both sexes of Japan and Chinese females. The slope of the age effect curve peaked at an earlier age in females than males in Japan and Korea. A strong period effect and remarkedly increasing rate ratios were observed in all regions and for both sexes. The cohort effect had a declining tendency on TC incidence in males and females in these areas. Conclusions:The rapidly upward incidence trend and strong period effect suggest that overdiagnosis caused by higher diagnostic intensity might be an explanation for the upward trend, and some environmental risk factor exposures are also not excluded. In addition, the discrepant trends of TC incidence and mortality reveal the need to identify the few high-risk patients who needed further treatment from those patients who may not need treatment.
| S-EPMC7475344 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Diagnoses of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in youths present a substantial clinical and public health burden. The prevalence of these diseases increased in the 2001-2009 period, but data on recent incidence trends are lacking. METHODS:We ascertained cases of type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus at five study centers in the United States. Denominators (4.9 million youths annually) were obtained from the U.S. Census or health-plan member counts. After the calculation of annual incidence rates for the 2002-2012 period, we analyzed trends using generalized autoregressive moving-average models with 2-year moving averages. RESULTS:A total of 11,245 youths with type 1 diabetes (0 to 19 years of age) and 2846 with type 2 diabetes (10 to 19 years of age) were identified. Overall unadjusted estimated incidence rates of type 1 diabetes increased by 1.4% annually (from 19.5 cases per 100,000 youths per year in 2002-2003 to 21.7 cases per 100,000 youths per year in 2011-2012, P=0.03). In adjusted pairwise comparisons, the annual rate of increase was greater among Hispanics than among non-Hispanic whites (4.2% vs. 1.2%, P<0.001). Overall unadjusted incidence rates of type 2 diabetes increased by 7.1% annually (from 9.0 cases per 100,000 youths per year in 2002-2003 to 12.5 cases per 100,000 youths per year in 2011-2012, P<0.001 for trend across race or ethnic group, sex, and age subgroups). Adjusted pairwise comparisons showed that the relative annual increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes among non-Hispanic whites (0.6%) was lower than that among non-Hispanic blacks, Asians or Pacific Islanders, and Native Americans (P<0.05 for all comparisons) and that the annual rate of increase among Hispanics differed significantly from that among Native Americans (3.1% vs. 8.9%, P=0.01). After adjustment for age, sex, and race or ethnic group, the relative annual increase in the incidence of type 1 diabetes was 1.8% (P<0.001) and that of type 2 diabetes was 4.8% (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS:The incidences of both type 1 and type 2 diabetes among youths increased significantly in the 2002-2012 period, particularly among youths of minority racial and ethnic groups. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.).
| S-EPMC5592722 | biostudies-literature