Cumulative incidence trends of selected cancer sites in a Philippine population from 1983 to 2002: a joinpoint analysis.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Medina VM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC2865754 | biostudies-other | 2010 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:Background/methodsThe Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Time Trends, Nordic Cancer Registries, Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results, WHO Mortality databases were assessed to extract the Age-Standardised Rates (ASR) of cancer incidence and mortality among children aged 0-14 years old. By using the ASRs, the country-specific Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) and its corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated to determine the epidemiological cancer trend.ResultsIn 2020, the highest incidence of childhood cancer was found in countries with higher Human Development Index (HDI) (ASR = 15.7), yet the highest mortality was found in countries with lower HDIs (ASR = 4.8). As for incidence, seven countries had positive AAPC among boys; Slovakia (AAPC2001-2010 = 4.98, 95% CI [1.66-8.40]), Ecuador (AAPC2003-2012 = 4.07, 95% CI [0.67-7.59]) and Thailand (AAPC2003-2012 = 3.69, 95% CI [0.37-7.11]) had the highest AAPC. Among girls, three countries had positive AAPC, which included Belarus (AAPC2003-2012 = 3.18, 95% CI [1.11, 5.29]), Canada (AAPC2003-2012 = 2.83, 95% CI [1.60, 4.07]) and Korea (AAPC2003-2012 = 1.76, 95% CI [0.23-3.32]). There was an overall decreasing trend of mortality. However, increased mortality was observed in two countries: Ecuador for boys (AAPC2007-2016 = 1.72, 95% CI [0.27-3.19]) and Austria for girls (AAPC2008-2017 = 4.11, 95% CI [0.38-7.98]).ConclusionsThe largest mortality and mortality to incidence ratio of childhood cancer were found in low-income countries. There was a substantial increasing trend of childhood cancer incidence, while overall its mortality has been decreasing over the past decade. More studies are needed to confirm the drivers behind these epidemiologic trends.
| S-EPMC9883415 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND: There are few population-based childhood cancer registries in the world containing stage and treatment data. METHODS: Data from the population-based Australian Paediatric Cancer Registry were used to calculate incidence rates during the most recent 10-year period (1997-2006) and trends in incidence between 1983 and 2006 for the 12 major diagnostic groups of the International Classification of Childhood Cancer. RESULTS: In the period 1997-2006, there were 6184 childhood cancer (at 0-14 years) cases in Australia (157 cases per million children). The commonest cancers were leukaemia (34%), that of the central nervous system (23%) and lymphomas (10%), with incidence the highest at 0-4 years (223 cases per million). Trend analyses showed that incidence among boys for all cancers combined increased by 1.6% per year from 1983 to 1994 but have remained stable since. Incidence rates for girls consistently increased by 0.9% per year. Since 1983, there have been significant increases among boys and girls for leukaemia, and hepatic and germ-cell tumours, whereas for boys, incidence of neuroblastomas and malignant epithelial tumours has recently decreased. For all cancers and for both sexes combined, there was a consistent increase (+0.7% per year, 1983-2006) at age 0-4 years, a slight non-significant increase at 5-9 years, and at 10-14 years, an initial increase (2.7% per year, 1983-1996) followed by a slight non-significant decrease. CONCLUSION: Although there is some evidence of a recent plateau in cancer incidence rates in Australia for boys and older children, interpretation is difficult without a better understanding of what underlies the changes reported.
| S-EPMC2822940 | biostudies-other
Project description:BACKGROUND:Recent reports have noted increasing rates of anal cancer among high-income countries worldwide; however, little is known about these trends in Austria. METHODS:Data on anal cancer from 1983 to 2016 were obtained from Statistics Austria. All tumors (n = 3567) were classified into anal squamous cell carcinomas (ASCC), anal adenocarcinomas (AADC), and others (unspecified carcinoma and other specific carcinoma). Anal cancer incidence rates were calculated in 5‑year cycles and incidence average annual percentage change (AAPC) to evaluate trends by sex, histology and age group. RESULTS:The incidence rate of anal cancer was higher among females than males (relative risk, RR = 1.66, 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.55-1.79, p < 0.0001). From 1983 through 2016, incident anal cancer increased significantly (0.92 per 100,000 person-years to 1.85 per 100,000 person-years, AAPC = 1.93, 95% CI: 1.52 to 2.34, p < 0.0001), particularly among those 40-69 years old. From 1983 through 2016, the increasing anal cancer incidence was primarily driven by ASCC (0.47-1.20 per 100,000 person-years, AAPC = 2.23, 95% CI: 1.58 to 2.88, p < 0.0001) and others (other than ASCC and AADC, AAPC = 1.78, 95% CI: 1.01-2.55), yet stable in AADC (AAPC = 0.88, 95% CI: -0.48-2.25). CONCLUSIONS:Despite being a rare cancer in Austria, the increase in anal cancer incidence rate from 1983 to 2016 was substantial, particularly in ASCC. The observed rising trends reflect the need to investigate associated risk factors that have increased over time to inform preventive measures.
| S-EPMC7445201 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We tested the hypotheses that the global incidence of bladder cancer was increasing but its mortality was reducing and its incidence was positively correlated with country-specific socioeconomic development. We retrieved data on age-standardized incidence and mortality rates/100,000 from the GLOBOCAN database in 2012. Temporal patterns were examined for 39 countries from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents volumes I-X and other national registries. We evaluated the correlation between the incidence/mortality rates and Human Development Index (HDI)/ logarithmic values of Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP). The average annual percent change of the incidence and mortality rates in the most recent 10 years was examined by joinpoint regression analysis. The highest incidence rates were observed in Southern Europe, Western Europe and North America. The mortality rates were the highest in Western Asia and Northern Africa. The incidence was positively correlated with HDI (r?=?0.66 [men]; r?=?0.50 [women]) and to a lesser extent logarithmic values of GDP per capita (r?=?0.60 [men]; r?=?0.50 [women], all p?<?0.01). Many European countries experienced incidence rise. A substantial mortality reduction was observed in most countries, yet increases in mortality rates were observed in the Philippines and Iceland. These findings identified countries where more preventive actions are required.
| S-EPMC5773684 | biostudies-other
Project description:Background The incidence and mortality trends of esophageal cancer (EC) remain unknown in China. This study aimed to describe the trend in incidence and mortality of EC in China. Methods We extracted age-standardized rates and numbers of EC in China for 1990−2019 from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) were calculated to describe the trends, while the annual percentage of change and the average annual percent change (AAPC) were analyzed by the joinpoint regression analysis. The incidence and mortality data were analyzed via age-period-cohort model analysis. Results The ASIR and ASMR decreased slightly before 1999, then increased from 1999 to 2004, and decreased again thereafter, with overall AAPC values of −2.5 (−2.8, −2.1) for females and -0.9 (−1.1, −0.8) for males regarding incidence, with overall AAPC values of −3.1 (−3.3, −2.9) for females and −1.2 (−1.3, −1.1) for males regarding mortality. As a whole, the relative risk (RR) of EC increased with age in both females and males regarding incidence and mortality, except for the 80–84-year-old age group in females and the 85–89-year-old age group in males regarding incidence, where they began to decrease. The RR of EC increased with age in females and males regarding mortality, except for the 85–89-year-old age group in males. The time period showed a trend of first rising and then decreasing, and the RR of time period effect was lower in 2015 than that in 1990 in females regarding both incidence and mortality, whereas males showed a significant upward trend in both incidence and mortality. The birth cohort effect showed an overall downward trend. Conclusions The overall incidence and mortality of EC in China shows an increased and then decreased trend from 1990 to 2019. The AAPC decreased in incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2019. The RR of incidence and mortality of EC in China is greatly affected by age in both sexes, by time period in male, we should be paid more attention to.
| S-EPMC9420985 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTuberculosis, as a communicable disease, is an ongoing global epidemic that accounts for high burden of global mortality and morbidity. Globally, with an estimated 10 million new cases and around 1.4 million deaths, TB has emerged as one of the top 10 causes of morbidity and mortality in 2019. Worst hit 8 countries account for two thirds of the new TB cases in 2019, with India leading the count. Despite India's engagement in various TB control activities since its first recognition through the resolution passed in the All-India Sanitary Conference in 1912 and launch of first National Tuberculosis Control Programme in 1962, it has remained a major public health challenge to overcome. To accelerate progress towards the goal of ending TB by 2025, 5 years ahead of the global SDG target, it is imperative to outline the incidence and mortality trends of tuberculosis in India. This study aims to provide deep insights into the recent trends of TB incidence and mortality in India from 1990 to 2019.MethodsThis is an observational study based on the most recent data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We extracted numbers, age-specific and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of Tuberculosis for the period 1990-2019 from the Global Health Data Exchange. The average annual percent change (AAPC) along with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) in incidence and mortality were derived by joinpoint regression analysis; the net age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rates were estimated by using Age-Period-Cohort model.ResultsDuring the study period, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of TB in India declines from 390.22 to 223.01 and from 121.72 to 36.11 per 100,000 population respectively. The Joinpoint regression analysis showed a significant decreasing pattern in incidence rates in India between 1990 and 2019 for both male and female; but larger decline was observed in case of females (AAPC: - 2.21; 95% CI: - 2.29 to - 2.12; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: - 1.63; 95% CI: - 1.71 to - 1.54; p < 0.001). Similar pattern was observed for mortality where the declining trend was sharper for females (AAPC: - 4.35; 95% CI: - 5.12 to - 3.57; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: - 3.88; 95% CI: - 4.63 to - 3.11; p < 0.001). For age-specific rates, incidence and mortality rates of TB decreased for both male and female across all ages during this period. The age effect showed that both incidence and mortality significantly increased with advancing age; period effect showed that both incidence and mortality decreased with advancing time period; cohort effect on TB incidence and mortality also decreased from earlier birth cohorts to more recent birth cohorts.ConclusionMortality and Incidence of TB decreased across all age groups for both male and female over the period 1990-2019. The incidence as well as mortality was higher among males as compared to females. The net age effect showed an unfavourable trend while the net period effect and cohort effect presented a favourable trend. Aging was likely to drive a continued increase in the mortality of TB. Though the incidence and mortality of tuberculosis significantly decreased from 1990 to 2019, the annual rate of reduction is not sufficient enough to achieve the aim of India's National Strategic plan 2017-2025. Approximately six decades since the launch of the National Tuberculosis Control Programme, TB still remains a major public health problem in India. Government needs to strengthen four strategic pillars "Detect-Treat-Prevent-Build" (DTPB) in order to achieve TB free India as envisaged in the National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme (2020).
| S-EPMC8597252 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCancer is an important focus of public health worldwide. This study aims to provide a comprehensive overview of temporal trends in incidence and mortality of leading cancer in Guangzhou, China from 2004 to 2015.MethodsData were collected from the population-based registry in Guangzhou. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) were calculated and Joinpoint regression was used for evaluating the average annual percent changes (AAPC) among the entire study period and the estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) in time segments. The effects of age, period, and birth cohort were assessed by the age-period-cohort model.ResultsThe age-standardized incidence and mortality by the world standard population decreased significantly among males with AAPC of -1.7% (95% CI: -3.0%, 0.2%) and -2.7% (95% CI: -4.3%, -1.1%) for all malignancies during 2004-2015, while among females, the age-standardized incidence had a non-significant reduction with AAPC of -1.3% (95% CI: -2.8%, 0.2%) and the age-standardized mortality demonstrated a remarkable decline (AAPC -2.0%, 95% CI: -3.6%, -0.3%). For males, the most commonly diagnosed cancers were trachea, bronchus, and lung (TBL), liver, colorectal, nasopharyngeal, stomach, and prostate cancer. For females, breast, TBL, colorectal, liver stomach, and thyroid cancer ranked the top. Unfavorable trends were observed in ASIR of colorectal, thyroid, and prostate cancer. APC models yielded different ages, periods, and birth cohort effect patterns by cancer sites.ConclusionsCancer burden remained a public health challenge in Guangzhou as the aging population and lifestyles changes, despite declines in incidence and mortality rates in some cancers. Surveillance of cancer trends contributed to valuable insights into cancer prevention and control.
| S-EPMC8026941 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn the past decade, the Republic of Ireland has undertaken significant reconfiguration programmes to improve emergency services. During this time the public healthcare system experienced a large real decrease in resources. This study assesses national and regional population outcomes over the period 2002-2014, and whether changes coincide with system reconfiguration and the financial restrictions imposed by the 2008 recession.MethodsCase fatality ratios (CFRs) were constructed for emergency conditions for 2002-2014. Total emergency conditions and individual condition trends were analysed nationally using joinpoint analysis. National results informed the investigation of trends at a regional and county level using an inverse standard error weighted generalised linear model with a log link to construct funnel plots. County-level CFRs were compared for the first and last 3 years of the period to further investigate the changes to county results over the 13 year period, specifically in comparison to the national-level CFR.ResultsNationally, there was an annual fall in CFRs (2.1%). The decline was faster from 2002 to 2007 (annual percentage change = - 3.4; 95% CI-4.4, - 2.4), compared to 2007-2014 (annual percentage change = - 1.2; 95% CI -1.9, - 0.5). The South-East had a lower rate of decrease and the West had a higher rate. Cross sectional analysis of two periods (2002-2004 and 2012-2014) showed high consistency in the counties performance relative to the national CFR in both periods.ConclusionChange in the national trend coincided with the onset of economic stress on the public health system. Attributing the decline in CFR improvement to economic factors is weakened by the uneven nature of the trend change. No distinct pattern of change was identified among regions which underwent substantial reconfiguration of emergency services.
| S-EPMC6006987 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo clarify whether the increase in childhood type 1 diabetes is mirrored by a decrease in older age-groups, resulting in younger age at diagnosis.Research design and methodsWe used data from two prospective research registers, the Swedish Childhood Diabetes Register, which included case subjects aged 0-14.9 years at diagnosis, and the Diabetes in Sweden Study, which included case subjects aged 15-34.9 years at diagnosis, covering birth cohorts between 1948 and 2007. The total database included 20,249 individuals with diabetes diagnosed between 1983 and 2007. Incidence rates over time were analyzed using Poisson regression models.ResultsThe overall yearly incidence rose to a peak of 42.3 per 100,000 person-years in male subjects aged 10-14 years and to a peak of 37.1 per 100,000 person-years in female subjects aged 5-9 years and decreased thereafter. There was a significant increase by calendar year in both sexes in the three age-groups <15 years; however, there were significant decreases in the older age-groups (25- to 29-years and 30- to 34-years age-groups). Poisson regression analyses showed that a cohort effect seemed to dominate over a time-period effect.ConclusionsTwenty-five years of prospective nationwide incidence registration demonstrates a clear shift to younger age at onset rather than a uniform increase in incidence rates across all age-groups. The dominance of cohort effects over period effects suggests that exposures affecting young children may be responsible for the increasing incidence in the younger age-groups.
| S-EPMC3142045 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionSuicide by firearm is a major public health problem in many countries. But, studies that investigated the mortality of suicide by firearm on a global scale are still limited. The aim of this study was to assess the global, regional and national trends in mortality of suicide by firearm from 1990 to 2019.MethodMortality data of suicide by firearm was presented using the age-standardized rates (ASRs, expressed per 100,000). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess trends of mortality of suicide by firearm: the average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was calculated.ResultsA total of 52,694 (45,110 male and 7584 female) deaths of suicide by firearm were reported worldwide in 2019. The global ASR of suicide by firearm was six-fold higher in males than in females (1.15 per 100,000 and 0.19 per 100,000, respectively), and varied greatly across countries: the highest rates were in Greenland (24.52 per 100,000 and 2.69 per 100,000, respectively) and the United States of America (10.13 per 100,000 and 1.66 per 100,000, respectively), while the lowest rates (0.05 per 100,000 or less) were observed in China, Japan and Singapore. Globally, the mortality of suicide by firearm had a decreasing tendency from 1990 to 2019 in both sexes together (AAPC = -2.0% per year; 95%CI = -2.1 to -1.9).ConclusionDecreasing trends in mortality of suicide by firearm were observed in majority of countries across the world, but not in all. Future research should determine more effective ways to further reduce mortality of suicide by firearm.
| S-EPMC9132310 | biostudies-literature