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Clinical prediction rule for stratifying risk of pulmonary multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.

ABSTRACT: Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), resistance to at least isoniazid and rifampin, is a worldwide problem.To develop a clinical prediction rule to stratify risk for MDR-TB among patients with pulmonary tuberculosis.Derivation and internal validation of the rule among adult patients prospectively recruited from 37 health centers (Perú), either a) presenting with a positive acid-fast bacillus smear, or b) had failed therapy or had a relapse within the first 12 months.Among 964 patients, 82 had MDR-TB (prevalence, 8.5%). Variables included were MDR-TB contact within the family, previous tuberculosis, cavitary radiologic pattern, and abnormal lung exam. The area under the receiver-operating curve (AUROC) was 0.76. Selecting a cut-off score of one or greater resulted in a sensitivity of 72.6%, specificity of 62.8%, likelihood ratio (LR) positive of 1.95, and LR negative of 0.44. Similarly, selecting a cut-off score of two or greater resulted in a sensitivity of 60.8%, specificity of 87.5%, LR positive of 4.85, and LR negative of 0.45. Finally, selecting a cut-off score of three or greater resulted in a sensitivity of 45.1%, specificity of 95.3%, LR positive of 9.56, and LR negative of 0.58.A simple clinical prediction rule at presentation can stratify risk for MDR-TB. If further validated, the rule could be used for management decisions in resource-limited areas.

SUBMITTER: Martinez D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2920322 | biostudies-other | 2010 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Treatment outcomes among patients treated for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) are often sub-optimal. Therefore, the early prediction of poor treatment outcomes may be useful in patient care, especially for clinicians when they have the ability to make treatment decisions or offer counselling or additional support to patients. The aim of this study was to develop a simple clinical risk score to predict poor treatment outcomes in patients with MDR-TB, using routinely collected data from two large countries in geographically distinct regions. METHODS:We used MDR-TB data collected from Hunan Chest Hospital, China and Gondar University Hospital, Ethiopia. The data were divided into derivation (n = 343; 60%) and validation groups (n = 227; 40%). A poor treatment outcome was defined as treatment failure, lost to follow up or death. A risk score for poor treatment outcomes was derived using a Cox proportional hazard model in the derivation group. The model was then validated in the validation group. RESULTS:The overall rate of poor treatment outcome was 39.5% (n = 225); 37.9% (n = 86) in the derivation group and 40.5% (n = 139) in the validation group. Three variables were identified as predictors of poor treatment outcomes, and each was assigned a number of points proportional to its regression coefficient. These predictors and their points were: 1) history of taking second-line TB treatment (2 points), 2) resistance to any fluoroquinolones (3 points), and 3) smear did not convert from positive to negative at two months (4 points). We summed these points to calculate the risk score for each patient; three risk groups were defined: low risk (0 to 2 points), medium risk (3 to 5 points), and high risk (6 to 9 points). In the derivation group, poor treatment outcomes were reported for these three groups as 14%, 27%, and 71%, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the point system in the derivation group was 0.69 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.77) and was similar to that in the validation group (0.67; 95% CI 0.56 to 0.78; p = 0.82). CONCLUSION:History of second-line TB treatment, resistance to any fluoroquinolones, and smear non-conversion at two months can be used to estimate the risk of poor treatment outcome in patients with MDR-TB with a moderate degree of accuracy (AUROC = 0.69).

Project description:Rationale: There is poor understanding about protective immunity and the pathogenesis of cavitation in patients with tuberculosis.Objectives: To map pathophysiological pathways at anatomically distinct positions within the human tuberculosis cavity.Methods: Biopsies were obtained from eight predetermined locations within lung cavities of patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis undergoing therapeutic surgical resection (n = 14) and healthy lung tissue from control subjects without tuberculosis (n = 10). RNA sequencing, immunohistochemistry, and bacterial load determination were performed at each cavity position. Differentially expressed genes were normalized to control subjects without tuberculosis, and ontologically mapped to identify a spatially compartmentalized pathophysiological map of the cavity. In silico perturbation using a novel distance-dependent dynamical sink model was used to investigate interactions between immune networks and bacterial burden, and to integrate these identified pathways.Measurements and Main Results: The median (range) lung cavity volume on positron emission tomography/computed tomography scans was 50 cm3 (15-389 cm3). RNA sequence reads (31% splice variants) mapped to 19,049 annotated human genes. Multiple proinflammatory pathways were upregulated in the cavity wall, whereas a downregulation "sink" in the central caseum-fluid interface characterized 53% of pathways including neuroendocrine signaling, calcium signaling, triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1, reactive oxygen and nitrogen species production, retinoic acid-mediated apoptosis, and RIG-I-like receptor signaling. The mathematical model demonstrated that neuroendocrine, protein kinase C-θ, and triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 pathways, and macrophage and neutrophil numbers, had the highest correlation with bacterial burden (r > 0.6), whereas T-helper effector systems did not.Conclusions: These data provide novel insights into host immunity to Mycobacterium tuberculosis-related cavitation. The pathways defined may serve as useful targets for the design of host-directed therapies, and transmission prevention interventions.

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Clinical prediction rule for stratifying risk of pulmonary multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.

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