Maximal sensitive dependence and the optimal path to epidemic extinction.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Forgoston E
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3056896 | biostudies-other | 2011 Mar
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
Publications
Maximal sensitive dependence and the optimal path to epidemic extinction.
Forgoston Eric E Bianco Simone S Shaw Leah B LB Schwartz Ira B IB
Bulletin of mathematical biology 20100330 3
Extinction of an epidemic or a species is a rare event that occurs due to a large, rare stochastic fluctuation. Although the extinction process is dynamically unstable, it follows an optimal path that maximizes the probability of extinction. We show that the optimal path is also directly related to the finite-time Lyapunov exponents of the underlying dynamical system in that the optimal path displays maximum sensitivity to initial conditions. We consider several stochastic epidemic models, and e ...[more]
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