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Modelling the global constraints of temperature on transmission of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax.

ABSTRACT: Temperature is a key determinant of environmental suitability for transmission of human malaria, modulating endemicity in some regions and preventing transmission in others. The spatial modelling of malaria endemicity has become increasingly sophisticated and is now central to the global scale planning, implementation, and monitoring of disease control and regional efforts towards elimination, but existing efforts to model the constraints of temperature on the malaria landscape at these scales have been simplistic. Here, we define an analytical framework to model these constraints appropriately at fine spatial and temporal resolutions, providing a detailed dynamic description that can enhance large scale malaria cartography as a decision-support tool in public health.We defined a dynamic biological model that incorporated the principal mechanisms of temperature dependency in the malaria transmission cycle and used it with fine spatial and temporal resolution temperature data to evaluate time-series of temperature suitability for transmission of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax throughout an average year, quantified using an index proportional to the basic reproductive number. Time-series were calculated for all 1 km resolution land pixels globally and were summarised to create high-resolution maps for each species delineating those regions where temperature precludes transmission throughout the year. Within suitable zones we mapped for each pixel the number of days in which transmission is possible and an integrated measure of the intensity of suitability across the year. The detailed evaluation of temporal suitability dynamics provided by the model is visualised in a series of accompanying animations.These modelled products, made available freely in the public domain, can support the refined delineation of populations at risk; enhance endemicity mapping by offering a detailed, dynamic, and biologically driven alternative to the ubiquitous empirical incorporation of raw temperature data in geospatial models; and provide a rich spatial and temporal platform for future biological modelling studies.

SUBMITTER: Gething PW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3115897 | biostudies-other | 2011 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Modelling the global constraints of temperature on transmission of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax.

Gething Peter W PW Van Boeckel Thomas P TP Smith David L DL Guerra Carlos A CA Patil Anand P AP Snow Robert W RW Hay Simon I SI

Parasites & vectors 20110526

<h4>Background</h4>Temperature is a key determinant of environmental suitability for transmission of human malaria, modulating endemicity in some regions and preventing transmission in others. The spatial modelling of malaria endemicity has become increasingly sophisticated and is now central to the global scale planning, implementation, and monitoring of disease control and regional efforts towards elimination, but existing efforts to model the constraints of temperature on the malaria landscap ...[more]

PMID: 21615906

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Project description:BackgroundMany recent studies have examined the impact of urbanization on Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity and found a general trend of reduced transmission in urban areas. However, none has examined the effect of urbanization on Plasmodium vivax malaria, which is the most widely distributed malaria species and can also cause severe clinical syndromes in humans. In this study, a set of 10,003 community-based P. vivax parasite rate (PvPR) surveys are used to explore the relationships between PvPR in urban and rural settings.MethodsThe PvPR surveys were overlaid onto a map of global urban extents to derive an urban/rural assignment. The differences in PvPR values between urban and rural areas were then examined. Groups of PvPR surveys inside individual city extents (urban) and surrounding areas (rural) were identified to examine the local variations in PvPR values. Finally, the relationships of PvPR between urban and rural areas within the ranges of 41 dominant Anopheles vectors were examined.ResultsSignificantly higher PvPR values in rural areas were found globally. The relationship was consistent at continental scales when focusing on Africa and Asia only, but in the Americas, significantly lower values of PvPR in rural areas were found, though the numbers of surveys were small. Moreover, except for the countries in the Americas, the same trends were found at national scales in African and Asian countries, with significantly lower values of PvPR in urban areas. However, the patterns at city scales among 20 specific cities where sufficient data were available were less clear, with seven cities having significantly lower PvPR values in urban areas and two cities showing significantly lower PvPR in rural areas. The urban-rural PvPR differences within the ranges of the dominant Anopheles vectors were generally, in agreement with the regional patterns found.ConclusionsExcept for the Americas, the patterns of significantly lower P. vivax transmission in urban areas have been found globally, regionally, nationally and by dominant vector species here, following trends observed previously for P. falciparum. To further understand these patterns, more epidemiological, entomological and parasitological analyses of the disease at smaller spatial scales are needed.

Project description:BackgroundCross-border malaria transmission is an important problem for national malaria control programmes. The epidemiology of cross-border malaria is further complicated in areas where Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax are both endemic. By combining passive case detection data with entomological data, a transmission scenario on the northwestern Thai-Myanmar border where P. falciparum is likely driven by importation was described, whereas P. vivax is also locally transmitted. This study highlights the differences in the level of control required to eliminate P. falciparum and P. vivax from the same region.MethodsMalaria case data were collected from malaria clinics in Suan Oi village, Tak Province, Thailand between 2011 and 2014. Infections were diagnosed by light microscopy. Demographic data, including migrant status, were correlated with concomitantly collected entomology data from 1330 mosquito trap nights using logistic regression. Malaria infection in the captured mosquitoes was detected by ELISA.ResultsRecent migrants were almost four times more likely to be infected with P. falciparum compared with Thai patients (OR 3.84, p < 0.001) and cases were significantly associated with seasonal migration. However, P. falciparum infection was not associated with the Anopheles mosquito capture rates, suggesting predominantly imported infections. In contrast, recent migrants were equally likely to present with P. vivax as mid-term migrants. Both migrant groups were twice as likely to be infected with P. vivax in comparison to the resident Thai population (OR 1.96, p < 0.001 and OR 1.94, p < 0.001, respectively). Plasmodium vivax cases were strongly correlated with age and local capture rates of two major vector species Anopheles minimus and Anopheles maculatus (OR 1.23, p = 0.020 and OR 1.33, p = 0.046, respectively), suggesting that a high level of local transmission might be causing these infections.ConclusionsOn the Thai-Myanmar border, P. falciparum infections occur mostly in the recent migrant population with a seasonality reflecting that of agricultural activity, rather than that of the local mosquito population. This suggests that P. falciparum was mostly imported. In contrast, P. vivax cases were significantly associated with mosquito capture rates and less with migrant status, indicating local transmission. This highlights the different timelines and requirements for P. falciparum and P. vivax elimination in the same region and underlines the importance of multinational, cross-border malaria control.

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Project description:BACKGROUND:The use of molecular diagnostics has revealed an unexpectedly large number of asymptomatic low-density malaria infections in many malaria endemic areas. This study compared the gains in parasite prevalence obtained by the use of ultra-sensitive (us)-qPCR as compared to standard qPCR in cross-sectional surveys conducted in Thailand, Brazil and Papua New Guinea (PNG). The compared assays differed in the copy number of qPCR targets in the parasite genome. METHODS:Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) and Plasmodium vivax (Pv) parasites were quantified by qPCR amplifying the low-copy Pf_ and Pv_18S rRNA genes or the multi-copy targets Pf_varATS and Pv_mtCOX1. Cross-sectional surveys at the three study sites included 2252 participants of all ages and represented different transmission intensities. RESULTS:In the two low-transmission areas, P. falciparum positivity was 1.3% (10/773) (Thailand) and 0.8% (5/651) (Brazil) using standard Pf_18S rRNA qPCR. In these two countries, P. falciparum positivity by Pf_varATS us-qPCR increased to 1.9% (15/773) and 1.7% (11/651). In PNG, an area with moderate transmission intensity, P. falciparum positivity significantly increased from 8.6% (71/828) by standard qPCR to 12.2% (101/828) by us-qPCR. The proportions of P. falciparum infections not detected by standard qPCR were 33%, 55% and 30% in Thailand, Brazil and PNG. Plasmodium vivax was the predominating species in Thailand and Brazil, with 3.9% (30/773) and 4.9% (32/651) positivity by Pv_18S rRNA qPCR. In PNG, P. vivax positivity was similar to P. falciparum, at 8.0% (66/828). Use of Pv_mtCOX1 us-qPCR led to a significant increase in positivity to 5.1% (39/773), 6.4% (42/651) and 11.5% (95/828) in Thailand, Brazil, and PNG. The proportions of P. vivax infections missed by standard qPCR were similar at all three sites, with 23%, 24% and 31% in Thailand, Brazil and PNG. CONCLUSION:The proportional gains in the detection of P. falciparum and P. vivax infections by ultra-sensitive diagnostic assays were substantial at all three study sites. Thus, us-qPCR yields more precise prevalence estimates for both P. falciparum and P. vivax at all studied levels of endemicity and represents a significant diagnostic improvement. Improving sensitivity in P. vivax surveillance by us-qPCR is of particular benefit, because the additionally detected P. vivax infections signal the potential presence of hypnozoites and subsequent risk of relapse and further transmission.

Dataset Information

Modelling the global constraints of temperature on transmission of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax.

Publications

Modelling the global constraints of temperature on transmission of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax.

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